Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Guinea-Bissau: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 35/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.06 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.34) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+1% skill vs naive; realized ±3.7036 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Guinea-Bissau: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-6.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -6.57 | 0.88 | -14.01 | -8.19 – -4.94 |
| 2029 | -7.1 | 5.8 | -20 | -10.07 – -4.13 |
| 2031 | -7.63 | 9.02 | -24.29 | -11.64 – -3.62 |
| 2036 | -8.97 | 14.59 | -30 | -15.21 – -2.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.47 | 18.41 | 7.32 | 11.42 – 13.52 |
| 2028 | 9.68 | 19.97 | 0.77 | 7.75 – 11.62 |
| 2030 | 6.89 | 20.17 | 0 | 4.44 – 9.34 |
| 2035 | 0 | 18.78 | 0 | 0 – 2.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.2bn | 3.5bn | 2.9bn | 3.1bn – 3.3bn |
| 2029 | 3.7bn | 4.2bn | 3.2bn | 3.4bn – 4bn |
| 2031 | 4.2bn | 4.9bn | 3.6bn | 3.7bn – 4.7bn |
| 2036 | 5.5bn | 6.5bn | 4.6bn | 4.3bn – 6.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.06 | 6.88 | 3.49 | 4.68 – 5.45 |
| 2029 | 5.37 | 8.52 | 2.64 | 4.59 – 6.16 |
| 2031 | 5.68 | 9.75 | 2.16 | 4.55 – 6.82 |
| 2036 | 6.46 | 12 | 1.47 | 4.47 – 8.45 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.5k | 1.8k | 1.3k | 1.5k – 1.6k |
| 2029 | 1.8k | 2.2k | 1.4k | 1.7k – 1.9k |
| 2031 | 2k | 2.5k | 1.6k | 1.8k – 2.3k |
| 2036 | 2.6k | 3.4k | 2k | 2.1k – 3.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed73.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 76.04 | 85.86 | 64.72 | 73.32 – 78.77 |
| 2029 | 80.93 | 97.94 | 61.32 | 74.43 – 87.43 |
| 2031 | 85.82 | 107.77 | 60.5 | 75.58 – 96.07 |
| 2036 | 98.05 | 129.09 | 62.23 | 77.59 – 118.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.66 | 31.64 | 21.67 | 25.47 – 27.85 |
| 2028 | 25.95 | 34.58 | 17.31 | 23.38 – 28.51 |
| 2030 | 25.24 | 36.39 | 14.09 | 21.51 – 28.96 |
| 2035 | 23.46 | 39.23 | 7.69 | 17.29 – 29.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.5 | 11.54 | -5 | 1.66 – 5.34 |
| 2029 | 5.78 | 19.7 | -5 | 2.41 – 9.14 |
| 2031 | 8.05 | 26.03 | -5 | 3.42 – 12.68 |
| 2036 | 13.74 | 39.17 | -5 | 5.9 – 21.57 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.71 | 28.2 | 17.95 | 21.56 – 23.85 |
| 2028 | 23.55 | 33.06 | 15.31 | 21.06 – 26.04 |
| 2030 | 24.4 | 36.67 | 13.76 | 20.69 – 28.1 |
| 2035 | 26.51 | 43.87 | 11.47 | 19.79 – 33.23 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2m | 2.2m | 1.9m | 2m – 2.1m |
| 2029 | 1.8m | 2.1m | 1.6m | 1.7m – 1.9m |
| 2031 | 1.6m | 1.9m | 1.3m | 1.4m – 1.8m |
| 2036 | 1.1m | 1.5m | 673.6k | 860.2k – 1.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.07 | 6.13 | 0.78 | 2.64 – 3.5 |
| 2028 | 4 | 9.3 | 0.03 | 3.15 – 4.86 |
| 2030 | 4.93 | 11.77 | -0.19 | 3.68 – 6.18 |
| 2035 | 7.26 | 15 | 0.01 | 4.89 – 9.63 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.61 | 2.93 | 2.29 | 2.52 – 2.7 |
| 2028 | 2.48 | 3.04 | 1.93 | 2.28 – 2.69 |
| 2030 | 2.36 | 3.07 | 1.64 | 2.06 – 2.65 |
| 2035 | 2.04 | 3.05 | 1.03 | 1.56 – 2.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GNB · API docs
