Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Guinea-Bissau: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 24/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.25 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.52, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.48) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+1% skill vs naive; realized ±1.5529 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Guinea-Bissau: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.67 | 1.64 | -14.97 | -8.47 – -4.86 |
| 2028 | -7.6 | 6.79 | -21.99 | -10.9 – -4.3 |
| 2030 | -8.53 | 10.04 | -27.11 | -13.01 – -4.06 |
| 2035 | -10.87 | 15.4 | -30 | -17.97 – -3.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.47 | 18.41 | 7.32 | 11.42 – 13.52 |
| 2028 | 9.68 | 19.97 | 0.77 | 7.75 – 11.62 |
| 2030 | 6.89 | 20.17 | 0 | 4.44 – 9.34 |
| 2035 | 0 | 18.78 | 0 | 0 – 2.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.7bn | 2.9bn | 2.5bn | 2.6bn – 2.8bn |
| 2028 | 3bn | 3.5bn | 2.7bn | 2.8bn – 3.3bn |
| 2030 | 3.4bn | 3.9bn | 2.9bn | 3bn – 3.8bn |
| 2035 | 4.3bn | 5.1bn | 3.6bn | 3.4bn – 5.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.25 | 8.5 | 4.31 | 5.78 – 6.73 |
| 2028 | 7.25 | 11.14 | 3.88 | 6.25 – 8.25 |
| 2030 | 8.25 | 12 | 3.89 | 6.75 – 9.74 |
| 2035 | 10.74 | 12 | 4.58 | 7.84 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2k | 1.3k | 1.1k | 1.1k – 1.2k |
| 2028 | 1.3k | 1.5k | 1.1k | 1.2k – 1.4k |
| 2030 | 1.4k | 1.7k | 1.2k | 1.3k – 1.6k |
| 2035 | 1.7k | 2.1k | 1.4k | 1.4k – 2.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed73.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 78.18 | 89.35 | 65.28 | 75.21 – 81.15 |
| 2028 | 84.33 | 103.69 | 61.99 | 77.3 – 91.36 |
| 2030 | 90.48 | 115.48 | 61.65 | 79.4 – 101.57 |
| 2035 | 105.87 | 141.21 | 65.09 | 83.49 – 128.25 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.66 | 31.64 | 21.67 | 25.47 – 27.85 |
| 2028 | 25.95 | 34.58 | 17.31 | 23.38 – 28.51 |
| 2030 | 25.24 | 36.39 | 14.09 | 21.51 – 28.96 |
| 2035 | 23.46 | 39.23 | 7.69 | 17.29 – 29.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.02 | 7.99 | -5 | -1.76 – 1.8 |
| 2028 | -4.03 | 9.77 | -5 | -5 – -0.77 |
| 2030 | -5 | 12.82 | -5 | -5 – -0.65 |
| 2035 | -5 | 20.2 | -5 | -5 – 1.39 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.71 | 28.2 | 17.95 | 21.56 – 23.85 |
| 2028 | 23.55 | 33.06 | 15.31 | 21.06 – 26.04 |
| 2030 | 24.4 | 36.67 | 13.76 | 20.69 – 28.1 |
| 2035 | 26.51 | 43.87 | 11.47 | 19.79 – 33.23 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.2m | 2.3m | 2.1m | 2.2m – 2.3m |
| 2028 | 2.3m | 2.4m | 2.2m | 2.1m – 2.5m |
| 2030 | 2.3m | 2.5m | 2.2m | 2.1m – 2.6m |
| 2035 | 2.5m | 2.6m | 2.4m | 2m – 3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.07 | 6.13 | 0.78 | 2.64 – 3.5 |
| 2028 | 4 | 9.3 | 0.03 | 3.15 – 4.86 |
| 2030 | 4.93 | 11.77 | -0.19 | 3.68 – 6.18 |
| 2035 | 7.26 | 15 | 0.01 | 4.89 – 9.63 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.61 | 2.93 | 2.29 | 2.52 – 2.7 |
| 2028 | 2.48 | 3.04 | 1.93 | 2.28 – 2.69 |
| 2030 | 2.36 | 3.07 | 1.64 | 2.06 – 2.65 |
| 2035 | 2.04 | 3.05 | 1.03 | 1.56 – 2.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GNB · API docs
