Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Equatorial Guinea: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 63/100); the economy is in contraction; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -5.34 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.26, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: cautious (projected sentiment -0.20) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1996-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+15% skill vs naive; realized ±2.6413 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Equatorial Guinea: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 1997, 1999, 2001, 2006, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.54 | 6.57 | -11.66 | -4.44 – -0.64 |
| 2028 | -1.63 | 14.16 | -17.42 | -4.93 – 1.67 |
| 2030 | -0.71 | 19.67 | -21.1 | -4.96 – 3.53 |
| 2035 | 1.57 | 30 | -27.26 | -4.56 – 7.71 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.05 | 63.09 | 29.41 | 41.75 – 48.35 |
| 2028 | 42.1 | 73.35 | 15.02 | 35.62 – 48.59 |
| 2030 | 39.16 | 79.5 | 4.19 | 30.26 – 48.05 |
| 2035 | 31.79 | 88.85 | 0 | 18.55 – 45.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.8bn | 15.8bn | 10.1bn | 12.2bn – 13.3bn |
| 2028 | 12.7bn | 18bn | 8.1bn | 11.5bn – 13.9bn |
| 2030 | 12.6bn | 19.4bn | 6.7bn | 10.8bn – 14.5bn |
| 2035 | 12.5bn | 22.1bn | 4.1bn | 9.3bn – 15.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-5.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.34 | 9.53 | -10 | -7.91 – -2.78 |
| 2028 | -4.74 | 12 | -10 | -9.26 – -0.22 |
| 2030 | -4.14 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.74 |
| 2035 | -2.63 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 5.63 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.5k | 8.2k | 4.9k | 6.1k – 6.8k |
| 2028 | 6.1k | 9.2k | 3.4k | 5.4k – 6.7k |
| 2030 | 5.7k | 9.7k | 2.2k | 4.8k – 6.6k |
| 2035 | 4.8k | 10.5k | 0 | 3.3k – 6.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.25 | 52.48 | 26.13 | 37.72 – 42.78 |
| 2028 | 39.55 | 60.74 | 15.1 | 34.39 – 44.71 |
| 2030 | 38.85 | 66.2 | 7.28 | 31.53 – 46.16 |
| 2035 | 37.09 | 75.78 | 0 | 25.2 – 48.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.71 | 33.95 | 17.47 | 24.04 – 27.38 |
| 2028 | 20.3 | 34.58 | 6.03 | 17.14 – 23.46 |
| 2030 | 14.89 | 33.33 | 0 | 10.88 – 18.91 |
| 2035 | 1.38 | 27.44 | 0 | 0 – 5.59 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.92(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.77 | 9.22 | -4.14 | 1.3 – 4.24 |
| 2028 | 2.6 | 13.77 | -5 | -0 – 5.2 |
| 2030 | 2.43 | 16.85 | -5 | -0.96 – 5.82 |
| 2035 | 2.01 | 22.4 | -5 | -2.84 – 6.85 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.85 | 9.11 | 3.03 | 5.29 – 6.41 |
| 2028 | 4.51 | 10.16 | 0 | 3.49 – 5.54 |
| 2030 | 3.18 | 10.46 | 0 | 1.88 – 4.47 |
| 2035 | 0 | 10.3 | 0 | 0 – 1.63 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9m | 2m | 1.8m | 1.9m – 2m |
| 2028 | 2m | 2.1m | 1.9m | 1.8m – 2.1m |
| 2030 | 2m | 2.1m | 1.9m | 1.8m – 2.3m |
| 2035 | 2.2m | 2.3m | 2.1m | 1.7m – 2.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-7.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.57 | 5.72 | -10 | -9.36 – -5.79 |
| 2028 | -7.61 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -4.36 |
| 2030 | -7.64 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -3.31 |
| 2035 | -7.72 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -1.23 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.3bn | 2.4bn | 260.4m | 1.1bn – 1.5bn |
| 2027 | 1.9bn | 3.7bn | 42.4m | 1.5bn – 2.3bn |
| 2029 | 2.4bn | 4.8bn | 67.1m | 1.9bn – 3bn |
| 2034 | 3.9bn | 7.2bn | 484.4m | 2.7bn – 5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.01(1996)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 0.14 | 1.58 | 0 | 0 – 0.38 |
| 1999 | 0.29 | 2.78 | 0 | 0 – 0.72 |
| 2001 | 0.37 | 3.58 | 0 | 0 – 0.94 |
| 2006 | 0.43 | 4.97 | 0 | 0 – 1.28 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.3bn | 2.4bn | 260.4m | 1.1bn – 1.5bn |
| 2027 | 1.9bn | 3.7bn | 42.4m | 1.5bn – 2.3bn |
| 2029 | 2.4bn | 4.8bn | 67.1m | 1.9bn – 3bn |
| 2034 | 3.9bn | 7.2bn | 484.4m | 2.7bn – 5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.25 | 8.71 | 7.78 | 7.99 – 8.5 |
| 2028 | 8.07 | 8.87 | 7.26 | 7.47 – 8.66 |
| 2030 | 7.89 | 8.93 | 6.85 | 6.99 – 8.78 |
| 2035 | 7.44 | 8.91 | 5.97 | 5.9 – 8.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GNQ · API docs
