Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Greece: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 61/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.34 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.22, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.18) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±6.7213 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Greece: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-6.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -6.62 | -1.19 | -12.05 | -7.84 – -5.41 |
| 2029 | -7.07 | 2.34 | -16.47 | -9.33 – -4.81 |
| 2031 | -7.51 | 4.63 | -19.66 | -10.59 – -4.43 |
| 2036 | -8.63 | 8.55 | -25.8 | -13.51 – -3.74 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.23 | 53.12 | 29.06 | 37.75 – 42.72 |
| 2028 | 41.77 | 64.1 | 22.42 | 36.58 – 46.97 |
| 2030 | 43.31 | 72.14 | 18.33 | 35.73 – 50.9 |
| 2035 | 47.17 | 87.93 | 11.84 | 33.8 – 60.53 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed280.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 322.7bn | 355.1bn | 294.7bn | 312.7bn – 332.7bn |
| 2029 | 361.2bn | 417.3bn | 312.6bn | 334.5bn – 387.9bn |
| 2031 | 399.6bn | 472bn | 336.9bn | 354.3bn – 445bn |
| 2036 | 495.7bn | 598.1bn | 407bn | 392.9bn – 598.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.34 | 4.58 | -1.48 | 0.77 – 1.9 |
| 2029 | 0.19 | 5.81 | -4.69 | -0.8 – 1.17 |
| 2031 | -0.96 | 6.3 | -7.25 | -2.25 – 0.33 |
| 2036 | -3.83 | 6.44 | -10 | -6.15 – -1.5 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 31.2k | 34.3k | 28.5k | 30.2k – 32.1k |
| 2029 | 35k | 40.3k | 30.3k | 32.4k – 37.6k |
| 2031 | 38.8k | 45.7k | 32.8k | 34.4k – 43.2k |
| 2036 | 48.3k | 58k | 39.8k | 38.3k – 58.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.64(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.44 | 6.38 | 0.29 | 2.66 – 4.22 |
| 2029 | 3.2 | 8.3 | 0 | 1.79 – 4.61 |
| 2031 | 3.08 | 9.66 | 0 | 1.21 – 4.95 |
| 2036 | 2.99 | 12.29 | 0 | 0.22 – 5.76 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed136.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 130.77 | 154.2 | 103.73 | 125.07 – 136.46 |
| 2029 | 118.5 | 159.09 | 71.67 | 106.57 – 130.43 |
| 2031 | 106.24 | 158.63 | 45.78 | 89.68 – 122.8 |
| 2036 | 75.57 | 149.67 | 0 | 52.08 – 99.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.15 | 58.53 | 31.76 | 42.38 – 47.92 |
| 2028 | 47.47 | 70.65 | 24.28 | 41.64 – 53.29 |
| 2030 | 49.79 | 79.71 | 19.86 | 41.22 – 58.35 |
| 2035 | 55.58 | 97.9 | 13.26 | 40.21 – 70.95 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.48(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.98 | 13.49 | -5 | 1.81 – 6.15 |
| 2029 | 5.4 | 21.87 | -5 | 1.49 – 9.32 |
| 2031 | 6.83 | 28.09 | -5 | 1.57 – 12.09 |
| 2036 | 10.39 | 40.46 | -5 | 2.06 – 18.72 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.6 | 8.83 | -4.07 | 1.18 – 4.02 |
| 2029 | 2.5 | 13.29 | -5 | -0.01 – 5.02 |
| 2031 | 2.47 | 16.4 | -5 | -0.82 – 5.75 |
| 2036 | 2.45 | 22.15 | -5 | -2.31 – 7.21 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.31 | 18.93 | 15.9 | 16.77 – 17.84 |
| 2028 | 18.53 | 21.35 | 16.09 | 17.16 – 19.9 |
| 2030 | 19.75 | 23.39 | 16.6 | 17.51 – 22 |
| 2035 | 22.81 | 27.96 | 18.35 | 18.08 – 27.54 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.4m | 10.8m | 9.9m | 10m – 10.7m |
| 2029 | 10.3m | 10.8m | 9.8m | 9.5m – 11.1m |
| 2031 | 10.2m | 10.7m | 9.8m | 9.1m – 11.4m |
| 2036 | 10.1m | 10.5m | 9.6m | 8m – 12.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.69 | 15 | -10 | -1.59 – 2.97 |
| 2028 | 0.9 | 15 | -10 | -3.07 – 4.87 |
| 2030 | 1.11 | 15 | -10 | -4.04 – 6.26 |
| 2035 | 1.63 | 15 | -10 | -5.79 – 9.06 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.5bn | 11.8bn | 5.2bn | 7.8bn – 9.1bn |
| 2028 | 9.8bn | 15.5bn | 4.1bn | 8.4bn – 11.1bn |
| 2030 | 11.1bn | 18.5bn | 3.7bn | 9.1bn – 13.1bn |
| 2035 | 14.4bn | 24.9bn | 4bn | 10.5bn – 18.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.29(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.27 | 1.89 | 0.66 | 1.16 – 1.39 |
| 2027 | 1.25 | 2.31 | 0.18 | 1.02 – 1.47 |
| 2029 | 1.23 | 2.61 | 0 | 0.92 – 1.54 |
| 2034 | 1.22 | 3.17 | 0 | 0.73 – 1.72 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.4bn | 32.5bn | 20.2bn | 25bn – 27.7bn |
| 2028 | 32.3bn | 43bn | 21.7bn | 29.2bn – 35.5bn |
| 2030 | 38.3bn | 52bn | 24.6bn | 33.1bn – 43.5bn |
| 2035 | 53.2bn | 72.6bn | 33.7bn | 41.7bn – 64.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6 | 6.84 | 5.17 | 5.78 – 6.23 |
| 2029 | 3.21 | 4.65 | 1.76 | 2.83 – 3.58 |
| 2031 | 0.41 | 2.28 | 0 | 0.04 – 0.77 |
| 2036 | 0 | 2.64 | 0 | 0 – 0.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GRC · API docs
