Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Greece: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 55/100); the economy is in slowdown; 23 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.4 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: cautious (projected sentiment -0.10) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±0.6036 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Greece: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-6.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.21 | -0.61 | -11.81 | -7.46 – -4.97 |
| 2028 | -7.24 | 2.46 | -16.94 | -9.57 – -4.92 |
| 2030 | -8.27 | 4.25 | -20.79 | -11.49 – -5.05 |
| 2035 | -10.84 | 6.87 | -28.55 | -16.19 – -5.49 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.23 | 53.12 | 29.06 | 37.75 – 42.72 |
| 2028 | 41.77 | 64.1 | 22.42 | 36.58 – 46.97 |
| 2030 | 43.31 | 72.14 | 18.33 | 35.73 – 50.9 |
| 2035 | 47.17 | 87.93 | 11.84 | 33.8 – 60.53 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed280.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 293.7bn | 327.1bn | 264.8bn | 284.6bn – 302.8bn |
| 2028 | 326.2bn | 383.9bn | 276.1bn | 302bn – 350.3bn |
| 2030 | 358.6bn | 433.1bn | 294bn | 317.9bn – 399.3bn |
| 2035 | 439.7bn | 545.1bn | 348.4bn | 348.5bn – 530.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4 | 12 | -10 | -0.41 – 5.22 |
| 2028 | 3.09 | 12 | -10 | -1.87 – 8.04 |
| 2030 | 3.77 | 12 | -10 | -2.74 – 10.28 |
| 2035 | 5.48 | 12 | -10 | -4.18 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.2k | 31.4k | 25.5k | 27.3k – 29.1k |
| 2028 | 31.4k | 36.9k | 26.6k | 29.1k – 33.7k |
| 2030 | 34.6k | 41.7k | 28.4k | 30.7k – 38.5k |
| 2035 | 42.5k | 52.6k | 33.8k | 33.7k – 51.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.87(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.61 | 6.56 | 0.44 | 2.82 – 4.39 |
| 2029 | 3.29 | 8.41 | 0 | 1.87 – 4.71 |
| 2031 | 3.14 | 9.75 | 0 | 1.26 – 5.02 |
| 2036 | 3.02 | 12.37 | 0 | 0.23 – 5.8 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed136.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 141.59 | 164.98 | 114.59 | 135.72 – 147.45 |
| 2028 | 133.36 | 173.89 | 86.61 | 120.73 – 146 |
| 2030 | 125.14 | 177.45 | 64.78 | 107.08 – 143.2 |
| 2035 | 104.58 | 178.56 | 19.21 | 76.46 – 132.69 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.15 | 58.53 | 31.76 | 42.38 – 47.92 |
| 2028 | 47.47 | 70.65 | 24.28 | 41.64 – 53.29 |
| 2030 | 49.79 | 79.71 | 19.86 | 41.22 – 58.35 |
| 2035 | 55.58 | 97.9 | 13.26 | 40.21 – 70.95 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.48(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.54 | 12.19 | -5 | 0.36 – 4.72 |
| 2028 | 2.17 | 18.89 | -5 | -1.64 – 5.98 |
| 2030 | 1.81 | 23.39 | -5 | -3.12 – 6.74 |
| 2035 | 0.91 | 31.43 | -5 | -5 – 7.83 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.24 | 9.47 | -3.44 | 1.81 – 4.67 |
| 2029 | 2.8 | 13.59 | -5 | 0.27 – 5.33 |
| 2031 | 2.64 | 16.57 | -5 | -0.66 – 5.94 |
| 2036 | 2.56 | 22.26 | -5 | -2.22 – 7.33 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.31 | 18.93 | 15.9 | 16.77 – 17.84 |
| 2028 | 18.53 | 21.35 | 16.09 | 17.16 – 19.9 |
| 2030 | 19.75 | 23.39 | 16.6 | 17.51 – 22 |
| 2035 | 22.81 | 27.96 | 18.35 | 18.08 – 27.54 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.4m | 10.9m | 10m | 10.1m – 10.7m |
| 2028 | 10.4m | 10.9m | 10m | 9.7m – 11.2m |
| 2030 | 10.4m | 10.9m | 10m | 9.3m – 11.6m |
| 2035 | 10.5m | 11m | 10m | 8.3m – 12.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.69 | 15 | -10 | -1.59 – 2.97 |
| 2028 | 0.9 | 15 | -10 | -3.07 – 4.87 |
| 2030 | 1.11 | 15 | -10 | -4.04 – 6.26 |
| 2035 | 1.63 | 15 | -10 | -5.79 – 9.06 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.5bn | 11.8bn | 5.2bn | 7.8bn – 9.1bn |
| 2028 | 9.8bn | 15.5bn | 4.1bn | 8.4bn – 11.1bn |
| 2030 | 11.1bn | 18.5bn | 3.7bn | 9.1bn – 13.1bn |
| 2035 | 14.4bn | 24.9bn | 4bn | 10.5bn – 18.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.29(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.27 | 1.89 | 0.66 | 1.16 – 1.39 |
| 2027 | 1.25 | 2.31 | 0.18 | 1.02 – 1.47 |
| 2029 | 1.23 | 2.61 | 0 | 0.92 – 1.54 |
| 2034 | 1.22 | 3.17 | 0 | 0.73 – 1.72 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.4bn | 32.5bn | 20.2bn | 25bn – 27.7bn |
| 2028 | 32.3bn | 43bn | 21.7bn | 29.2bn – 35.5bn |
| 2030 | 38.3bn | 52bn | 24.6bn | 33.1bn – 43.5bn |
| 2035 | 53.2bn | 72.6bn | 33.7bn | 41.7bn – 64.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.05 | 7.86 | 6.24 | 6.81 – 7.29 |
| 2028 | 4.07 | 5.47 | 2.67 | 3.66 – 4.48 |
| 2030 | 1.1 | 2.91 | 0 | 0.73 – 1.46 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.56 | 0 | 0 – 0.55 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GRC · API docs
