Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Grenada: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 23/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 12 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.1 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.54, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.48) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±1.1973 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Grenada: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-22.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -24.73 | -17.15 | -30 | -26.67 – -22.79 |
| 2028 | -27.99 | -14.87 | -30 | -30 – -23.97 |
| 2030 | -30 | -13.06 | -30 | -30 – -24.14 |
| 2035 | -30 | -6.04 | -30 | -30 – -20.31 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.3bn | 1.4bn – 1.5bn |
| 2028 | 1.6bn | 1.9bn | 1.3bn | 1.5bn – 1.7bn |
| 2030 | 1.7bn | 2.1bn | 1.3bn | 1.5bn – 1.9bn |
| 2035 | 1.9bn | 2.5bn | 1.4bn | 1.5bn – 2.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.1 | 12 | -8.95 | 2.32 – 7.88 |
| 2028 | 6.79 | 12 | -10 | 1.79 – 11.79 |
| 2030 | 8.48 | 12 | -10 | 1.76 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 1.54 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.4k | 14.1k | 11k | 12k – 12.8k |
| 2028 | 13.3k | 16.1k | 10.9k | 12.3k – 14.3k |
| 2030 | 14.2k | 17.8k | 11k | 12.6k – 15.8k |
| 2035 | 16.3k | 21.4k | 11.9k | 12.9k – 19.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69.31 | 88.16 | 47.56 | 65.3 – 73.32 |
| 2028 | 69.12 | 101.77 | 31.45 | 60.78 – 77.46 |
| 2030 | 68.93 | 111.08 | 20.3 | 56.93 – 80.93 |
| 2035 | 68.47 | 128.08 | 0 | 48.34 – 88.59 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.55 | 3.14 | -2.23 | -0.04 – 1.14 |
| 2028 | -0.12 | 4.37 | -4.93 | -1.16 – 0.92 |
| 2030 | -0.79 | 5.01 | -5 | -2.15 – 0.58 |
| 2035 | -2.45 | 5.75 | -5 | -4.66 – -0.24 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed117.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 117.3k | 122.8k | 112.1k | 113.6k – 120.9k |
| 2028 | 117.4k | 122.9k | 112.2k | 108.7k – 126k |
| 2030 | 117.5k | 123k | 112.3k | 104.1k – 130.8k |
| 2035 | 117.7k | 123.3k | 112.6k | 93.3k – 142.1k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed408.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 423.7m | 471.3m | 376.1m | 409.6m – 437.8m |
| 2028 | 463m | 545.4m | 380.6m | 428.2m – 497.9m |
| 2030 | 502.3m | 608.7m | 395.9m | 445.3m – 559.4m |
| 2035 | 600.6m | 751.1m | 450.1m | 476m – 725.2m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.37 | 5.95 | 2.79 | 4.06 – 4.68 |
| 2028 | 4.39 | 7.12 | 1.66 | 3.76 – 5.02 |
| 2030 | 4.4 | 7.93 | 0.87 | 3.51 – 5.29 |
| 2035 | 4.41 | 9.4 | 0 | 2.94 – 5.87 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed408.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 423.7m | 471.3m | 376.1m | 409.6m – 437.8m |
| 2028 | 463m | 545.4m | 380.6m | 428.2m – 497.9m |
| 2030 | 502.3m | 608.7m | 395.9m | 445.3m – 559.4m |
| 2035 | 600.6m | 751.1m | 450.1m | 476m – 725.2m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-11-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GRD · API docs
