Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Guatemala: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 26/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.78 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.48, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.54) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±4.283 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Guatemala: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.3 | 7.03 | -0.43 | 2.49 – 4.12 |
| 2029 | 3.51 | 9.96 | -2.95 | 2.02 – 4.99 |
| 2031 | 3.71 | 12.05 | -4.62 | 1.71 – 5.71 |
| 2036 | 4.22 | 16.01 | -7.57 | 1.14 – 7.31 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.26 | 17.83 | 13.04 | 14.65 – 15.87 |
| 2028 | 14.67 | 19.12 | 10.82 | 13.34 – 16.01 |
| 2030 | 14.08 | 19.82 | 9.11 | 12.14 – 16.03 |
| 2035 | 12.61 | 20.72 | 5.58 | 9.43 – 15.79 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed123.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 135.5bn | 142.6bn | 129.3bn | 131.3bn – 139.7bn |
| 2029 | 152bn | 163.2bn | 142.3bn | 140.8bn – 163.2bn |
| 2031 | 168.5bn | 183bn | 156bn | 149.4bn – 187.7bn |
| 2036 | 209.8bn | 230.3bn | 192.1bn | 166.3bn – 253.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.78 | 7.11 | 0.89 | 3.16 – 4.39 |
| 2029 | 3.46 | 9.22 | -1.54 | 2.33 – 4.58 |
| 2031 | 3.13 | 10.58 | -3.32 | 1.64 – 4.62 |
| 2036 | 2.32 | 12 | -6.8 | 0.2 – 4.45 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.1k | 7.5k | 6.8k | 6.9k – 7.3k |
| 2029 | 7.8k | 8.4k | 7.3k | 7.2k – 8.4k |
| 2031 | 8.6k | 9.3k | 7.9k | 7.6k – 9.5k |
| 2036 | 10.4k | 11.5k | 9.4k | 8.2k – 12.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 27.68 | 31.29 | 23.51 | 26.68 – 28.68 |
| 2029 | 27.84 | 34.09 | 20.62 | 25.54 – 30.14 |
| 2031 | 28 | 36.07 | 18.68 | 24.52 – 31.48 |
| 2036 | 28.39 | 39.81 | 15.22 | 22.09 – 34.69 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.65 | 38.52 | 24.77 | 30.09 – 33.21 |
| 2028 | 33.01 | 44.92 | 21.1 | 29.6 – 36.41 |
| 2030 | 34.37 | 49.74 | 18.99 | 29.26 – 39.47 |
| 2035 | 37.76 | 59.51 | 16.02 | 28.39 – 47.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.26 | 7.43 | -1.21 | 2.28 – 4.23 |
| 2029 | 4.81 | 12.03 | -2.92 | 2.98 – 6.65 |
| 2031 | 6.37 | 15.69 | -3.61 | 3.8 – 8.95 |
| 2036 | 10.26 | 23.44 | -3.86 | 5.7 – 14.82 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.8 | 18.86 | 15.02 | 16.24 – 17.37 |
| 2028 | 17.17 | 20.72 | 14.08 | 15.83 – 18.5 |
| 2030 | 17.53 | 22.12 | 13.54 | 15.47 – 19.58 |
| 2035 | 18.43 | 24.92 | 12.8 | 14.55 – 22.3 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.8m | 19.7m | 18m | 18.3m – 19.4m |
| 2029 | 19.1m | 20m | 18.3m | 17.7m – 20.5m |
| 2031 | 19.4m | 20.3m | 18.5m | 17.2m – 21.6m |
| 2036 | 20m | 21m | 19.1m | 15.9m – 24.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.21 | 13.01 | -7.65 | -0.29 – 2.7 |
| 2028 | -0.37 | 15 | -10 | -2.98 – 2.23 |
| 2030 | -1.96 | 15 | -10 | -5.41 – 1.5 |
| 2035 | -5.91 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -0.3 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.3bn | 37.6bn | 29bn | 32.1bn – 34.5bn |
| 2028 | 39.4bn | 46.9bn | 31.8bn | 36.3bn – 42.4bn |
| 2030 | 45.4bn | 55.1bn | 35.7bn | 40.2bn – 50.6bn |
| 2035 | 60.5bn | 74.3bn | 46.8bn | 48bn – 73.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.39(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.25 | 9.94 | 4.56 | 6.72 – 7.78 |
| 2027 | 7.09 | 11.75 | 2.43 | 6.04 – 8.15 |
| 2029 | 7.02 | 13.03 | 1 | 5.53 – 8.5 |
| 2034 | 6.95 | 15.46 | 0 | 4.54 – 9.37 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.4bn | 40.4bn | 30.3bn | 34bn – 36.7bn |
| 2028 | 42.1bn | 50.8bn | 33.3bn | 38.7bn – 45.4bn |
| 2030 | 48.8bn | 60.1bn | 37.5bn | 43.1bn – 54.4bn |
| 2035 | 65.5bn | 81.5bn | 49.5bn | 51.9bn – 79.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.57 | 3.79 | 1.35 | 2.34 – 2.8 |
| 2028 | 2.5 | 4.62 | 0.39 | 2.06 – 2.95 |
| 2030 | 2.43 | 5.16 | 0 | 1.82 – 3.05 |
| 2035 | 2.26 | 6.12 | 0 | 1.31 – 3.22 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GTM · API docs
