Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Guatemala: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 12/100); the economy is in expansion; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.66 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.76, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.72) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±0.7602 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Guatemala: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.08 | 8.62 | 1.53 | 4.27 – 5.88 |
| 2028 | 5.63 | 11.77 | -0.52 | 4.1 – 7.15 |
| 2030 | 6.18 | 14.11 | -1.76 | 4.06 – 8.29 |
| 2035 | 7.55 | 18.77 | -3.67 | 4.05 – 11.05 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.26 | 17.83 | 13.04 | 14.65 – 15.87 |
| 2028 | 14.67 | 19.12 | 10.82 | 13.34 – 16.01 |
| 2030 | 14.08 | 19.82 | 9.11 | 12.14 – 16.03 |
| 2035 | 12.61 | 20.72 | 5.58 | 9.43 – 15.79 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed123.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 130bn | 136.9bn | 124bn | 126bn – 134bn |
| 2028 | 146.9bn | 158.9bn | 136.6bn | 136.1bn – 157.8bn |
| 2030 | 163.9bn | 179.3bn | 150.5bn | 145.3bn – 182.5bn |
| 2035 | 206.2bn | 228bn | 187.4bn | 163.4bn – 249bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.66 | 12 | -3.68 | 2.98 – 6.34 |
| 2028 | 5.49 | 12 | -8.96 | 2.45 – 8.53 |
| 2030 | 6.32 | 12 | -10 | 2.23 – 10.42 |
| 2035 | 8.4 | 12 | -10 | 1.98 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.9k | 7.3k | 6.6k | 6.7k – 7.1k |
| 2028 | 7.7k | 8.3k | 7.1k | 7.1k – 8.2k |
| 2030 | 8.4k | 9.2k | 7.7k | 7.5k – 9.4k |
| 2035 | 10.3k | 11.5k | 9.3k | 8.2k – 12.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.44 | 31.05 | 23.28 | 26.45 – 28.44 |
| 2028 | 27.93 | 34.18 | 20.72 | 25.63 – 30.23 |
| 2030 | 28.41 | 36.48 | 19.1 | 24.9 – 31.93 |
| 2035 | 29.62 | 41.04 | 16.46 | 23.13 – 36.12 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.65 | 38.52 | 24.77 | 30.09 – 33.21 |
| 2028 | 33.01 | 44.92 | 21.1 | 29.6 – 36.41 |
| 2030 | 34.37 | 49.74 | 18.99 | 29.26 – 39.47 |
| 2035 | 37.76 | 59.51 | 16.02 | 28.39 – 47.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.23 | 5.38 | -3.21 | 0.29 – 2.17 |
| 2028 | -0.7 | 6.48 | -5 | -2.34 – 0.94 |
| 2030 | -2.64 | 6.64 | -5 | -4.91 – -0.37 |
| 2035 | -5 | 8.12 | -5 | -5 – -1.29 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.8 | 18.86 | 15.02 | 16.24 – 17.37 |
| 2028 | 17.17 | 20.72 | 14.08 | 15.83 – 18.5 |
| 2030 | 17.53 | 22.12 | 13.54 | 15.47 – 19.58 |
| 2035 | 18.43 | 24.92 | 12.8 | 14.55 – 22.3 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.6m | 19.5m | 17.8m | 18m – 19.2m |
| 2028 | 18.9m | 19.8m | 18.1m | 17.5m – 20.3m |
| 2030 | 19.2m | 20.1m | 18.4m | 17.1m – 21.4m |
| 2035 | 20m | 21m | 19.1m | 15.9m – 24.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.21 | 13.01 | -7.65 | -0.29 – 2.7 |
| 2028 | -0.37 | 15 | -10 | -2.98 – 2.23 |
| 2030 | -1.96 | 15 | -10 | -5.41 – 1.5 |
| 2035 | -5.91 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -0.3 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.3bn | 37.6bn | 29bn | 32.1bn – 34.5bn |
| 2028 | 39.4bn | 46.9bn | 31.8bn | 36.3bn – 42.4bn |
| 2030 | 45.4bn | 55.1bn | 35.7bn | 40.2bn – 50.6bn |
| 2035 | 60.5bn | 74.3bn | 46.8bn | 48bn – 73.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.39(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.25 | 9.94 | 4.56 | 6.72 – 7.78 |
| 2027 | 7.09 | 11.75 | 2.43 | 6.04 – 8.15 |
| 2029 | 7.02 | 13.03 | 1 | 5.53 – 8.5 |
| 2034 | 6.95 | 15.46 | 0 | 4.54 – 9.37 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.4bn | 40.4bn | 30.3bn | 34bn – 36.7bn |
| 2028 | 42.1bn | 50.8bn | 33.3bn | 38.7bn – 45.4bn |
| 2030 | 48.8bn | 60.1bn | 37.5bn | 43.1bn – 54.4bn |
| 2035 | 65.5bn | 81.5bn | 49.5bn | 51.9bn – 79.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.57 | 3.79 | 1.35 | 2.34 – 2.8 |
| 2028 | 2.5 | 4.62 | 0.39 | 2.06 – 2.95 |
| 2030 | 2.43 | 5.16 | 0 | 1.82 – 3.05 |
| 2035 | 2.26 | 6.12 | 0 | 1.31 – 3.22 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GTM · API docs
