Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Guam: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 25/100); the economy is in expansion; 8 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 9.82 for 2023.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.50, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2023: supportive (projected sentiment +0.58) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±5.8903 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Guam: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed7.89(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 5.68 | 18.96 | 0 | 3.69 – 7.67 |
| 2025 | 1.27 | 24.27 | 0 | 0 – 4.61 |
| 2027 | 0 | 29.7 | 0 | 0 – 4.32 |
| 2032 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 0 – 6.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.9bn(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7bn | 7.7bn | 6.5bn | 6.8bn – 7.2bn |
| 2025 | 7.4bn | 8.5bn | 6.4bn | 6.8bn – 7.9bn |
| 2027 | 7.7bn | 9.2bn | 6.4bn | 6.8bn – 8.6bn |
| 2032 | 8.5bn | 10.6bn | 6.7bn | 6.7bn – 10.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 9.82 | 12 | -5.36 | 6.75 – 12 |
| 2025 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 6.37 – 12 |
| 2027 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.51 – 12 |
| 2032 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 0.84 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.8k(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 42.4k | 46.3k | 39k | 41.1k – 43.7k |
| 2025 | 44.1k | 50.8k | 38.2k | 40.8k – 47.3k |
| 2027 | 45.7k | 54.4k | 38.2k | 40.5k – 50.9k |
| 2032 | 49.9k | 62.1k | 39.2k | 39.5k – 60.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed63.98(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 65.58 | 70.03 | 61.13 | 63.55 – 67.61 |
| 2025 | 68.78 | 76.49 | 61.07 | 63.69 – 73.87 |
| 2027 | 71.98 | 81.94 | 62.03 | 63.81 – 80.16 |
| 2032 | 79.99 | 94.06 | 65.92 | 63.4 – 96.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed169k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 168.7k | 176.6k | 161.3k | 163.4k – 173.9k |
| 2028 | 170k | 178k | 162.5k | 157.4k – 182.6k |
| 2030 | 171.3k | 179.4k | 163.8k | 151.9k – 190.8k |
| 2035 | 174.7k | 183k | 167k | 138.5k – 210.9k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.41 | 6 | 4.81 | 5.23 – 5.58 |
| 2028 | 5.08 | 6.11 | 4.04 | 4.68 – 5.48 |
| 2030 | 4.75 | 6.09 | 3.42 | 4.17 – 5.34 |
| 2035 | 3.93 | 5.82 | 2.05 | 3.02 – 4.85 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GUM · API docs
