Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Guyana: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 39/100); the economy is in slowdown; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 7.05 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.22, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.32) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2005-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2005-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2005-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+1% skill vs naive; realized ±27.3248 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Guyana: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2006, 2008, 2010, 2015, 2024, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2033, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed21.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 30 | 30 | -19.63 | 19.39 – 30 |
| 2029 | 30 | 30 | -30 | 11.02 – 30 |
| 2031 | 30 | 30 | -30 | 4.95 – 30 |
| 2036 | 30 | 30 | -30 | -6.83 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed84.62(2005)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 83.39 | 93.24 | 74.85 | 80.65 – 86.13 |
| 2008 | 80.92 | 97.98 | 66.13 | 74.6 – 87.24 |
| 2010 | 78.45 | 100.48 | 59.36 | 69.03 – 87.87 |
| 2015 | 72.28 | 103.43 | 45.28 | 56.26 – 88.3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 37.9bn | 43.5bn | 33bn | 36.6bn – 39.2bn |
| 2029 | 47.8bn | 57.5bn | 39.3bn | 44.2bn – 51.3bn |
| 2031 | 57.6bn | 70.3bn | 46.7bn | 51.1bn – 64.2bn |
| 2036 | 82.3bn | 100.2bn | 66.8bn | 65.2bn – 99.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.05 | 12 | -10 | -2.26 – 12 |
| 2029 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 6.41 |
| 2031 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 11.36 |
| 2036 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 36.6k | 43.3k | 30.8k | 35.2k – 38k |
| 2029 | 45.1k | 56.7k | 35k | 41.5k – 48.6k |
| 2031 | 53.6k | 68.6k | 40.6k | 47.5k – 59.7k |
| 2036 | 74.9k | 96.1k | 56.5k | 59.3k – 90.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 27.74 | 41.09 | 12.33 | 25.24 – 30.24 |
| 2029 | 24.81 | 47.94 | 0 | 20.06 – 29.56 |
| 2031 | 21.89 | 51.75 | 0 | 15.54 – 28.23 |
| 2036 | 14.58 | 56.81 | 0 | 5.75 – 23.41 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed109.73(2005)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 109.49 | 118.47 | 100.51 | 106.09 – 112.88 |
| 2008 | 109.01 | 124.57 | 93.45 | 100.95 – 117.07 |
| 2010 | 108.53 | 128.61 | 88.45 | 96.21 – 120.85 |
| 2015 | 107.34 | 135.74 | 78.93 | 85.07 – 129.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.39 | 8.8 | -0.33 | 3.35 – 5.44 |
| 2029 | 5.47 | 13.1 | -2.7 | 3.52 – 7.43 |
| 2031 | 6.55 | 16.4 | -4 | 3.84 – 9.26 |
| 2036 | 9.25 | 23.18 | -5 | 4.68 – 13.81 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.33(2005)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 33.89 | 42 | 26.86 | 32.19 – 35.59 |
| 2008 | 38.04 | 52.1 | 25.86 | 34.21 – 41.87 |
| 2010 | 42.19 | 60.34 | 26.46 | 36.22 – 48.16 |
| 2015 | 52.57 | 70 | 30.33 | 40.49 – 64.65 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed836k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1m | 1.1m | 941.2k | 1m – 1.1m |
| 2029 | 1.2m | 1.4m | 1.1m | 1.2m – 1.3m |
| 2031 | 1.5m | 1.7m | 1.2m | 1.3m – 1.6m |
| 2036 | 2m | 2.3m | 1.7m | 1.6m – 2.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 6.76 – 15 |
| 2028 | 7.34 | 15 | -10 | -6.87 – 15 |
| 2030 | -0.8 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5bn | 1.7bn | 1.2bn | 1.4bn – 1.5bn |
| 2028 | 1.7bn | 2.1bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.7bn – 2.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.6bn | 3.2bn | 2bn | 2.1bn – 3.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.85(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1.27 | 2.35 | 0.19 | 1.09 – 1.46 |
| 2026 | 1.78 | 3.64 | 0 | 1.4 – 2.15 |
| 2028 | 2.02 | 4.44 | 0 | 1.49 – 2.55 |
| 2033 | 2.22 | 5.63 | 0 | 1.34 – 3.1 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5bn | 1.7bn | 1.2bn | 1.4bn – 1.5bn |
| 2028 | 1.7bn | 2.1bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.7bn – 2.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.6bn | 3.2bn | 2bn | 2.1bn – 3.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.25 | 13.3 | 9.21 | 10.76 – 11.75 |
| 2028 | 9.83 | 13.37 | 6.3 | 8.82 – 10.85 |
| 2030 | 8.42 | 12.98 | 3.85 | 7.04 – 9.79 |
| 2035 | 4.87 | 11.33 | 0 | 3.1 – 6.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GUY · API docs
