Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Guyana: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 38/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 12 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.24, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.36) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2005-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2005-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2005-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+1% skill vs naive; realized ±4.2 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Guyana: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2006, 2008, 2010, 2015, 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed21.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.04 | 30 | -30 | 10.1 – 30 |
| 2028 | 30 | 30 | -30 | 6.79 – 30 |
| 2030 | 30 | 30 | -30 | -0.51 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -30 | -14.55 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed84.62(2005)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 83.39 | 93.24 | 74.85 | 80.65 – 86.13 |
| 2008 | 80.92 | 97.98 | 66.13 | 74.6 – 87.24 |
| 2010 | 78.45 | 100.48 | 59.36 | 69.03 – 87.87 |
| 2015 | 72.28 | 103.43 | 45.28 | 56.26 – 88.3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.4bn | 36bn | 25.5bn | 29.2bn – 31.5bn |
| 2028 | 38.6bn | 48.4bn | 30bn | 35.5bn – 41.6bn |
| 2030 | 46.8bn | 59.4bn | 35.8bn | 41.4bn – 52.1bn |
| 2035 | 67.2bn | 85.2bn | 51.7bn | 53.3bn – 81.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 2.06 – 12 |
| 2028 | 4.34 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2030 | -6.34 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2035 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.2k | 43k | 30.3k | 34.8k – 37.6k |
| 2028 | 45.8k | 57.6k | 35.6k | 42.2k – 49.4k |
| 2030 | 55.4k | 70.7k | 42.2k | 49.1k – 61.7k |
| 2035 | 79.5k | 101.1k | 60.7k | 63k – 95.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.2 | 40.53 | 11.82 | 24.72 – 29.69 |
| 2028 | 24.41 | 47.5 | 0 | 19.69 – 29.14 |
| 2030 | 21.62 | 51.43 | 0 | 15.3 – 27.93 |
| 2035 | 14.64 | 56.79 | 0 | 5.81 – 23.46 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed109.73(2005)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 109.49 | 118.47 | 100.51 | 106.09 – 112.88 |
| 2008 | 109.01 | 124.57 | 93.45 | 100.95 – 117.07 |
| 2010 | 108.53 | 128.61 | 88.45 | 96.21 – 120.85 |
| 2015 | 107.34 | 135.74 | 78.93 | 85.07 – 129.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.58 | 9.02 | -2.26 | 2.31 – 4.84 |
| 2028 | 4.17 | 13.6 | -5 | 1.88 – 6.46 |
| 2030 | 4.77 | 16.94 | -5 | 1.69 – 7.85 |
| 2035 | 6.26 | 23.47 | -5 | 1.44 – 11.08 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.33(2005)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 33.89 | 42 | 26.86 | 32.19 – 35.59 |
| 2008 | 38.04 | 52.1 | 25.86 | 34.21 – 41.87 |
| 2010 | 42.19 | 60.34 | 26.46 | 36.22 – 48.16 |
| 2015 | 52.57 | 70 | 30.33 | 40.49 – 64.65 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed836k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 834.6k | 874k | 798k | 808.7k – 860.5k |
| 2028 | 840k | 879.7k | 803.1k | 777.8k – 902.1k |
| 2030 | 845.4k | 885.3k | 808.3k | 749.4k – 941.3k |
| 2035 | 858.8k | 899.4k | 821.2k | 680.7k – 1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 6.76 – 15 |
| 2028 | 7.34 | 15 | -10 | -6.87 – 15 |
| 2030 | -0.8 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5bn | 1.7bn | 1.2bn | 1.4bn – 1.5bn |
| 2028 | 1.7bn | 2.1bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.7bn – 2.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.6bn | 3.2bn | 2bn | 2.1bn – 3.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.85(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1.27 | 2.35 | 0.19 | 1.09 – 1.46 |
| 2026 | 1.78 | 3.64 | 0 | 1.4 – 2.15 |
| 2028 | 2.02 | 4.44 | 0 | 1.49 – 2.55 |
| 2033 | 2.22 | 5.63 | 0 | 1.34 – 3.1 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5bn | 1.7bn | 1.2bn | 1.4bn – 1.5bn |
| 2028 | 1.7bn | 2.1bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.7bn – 2.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.6bn | 3.2bn | 2bn | 2.1bn – 3.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.25 | 13.3 | 9.21 | 10.76 – 11.75 |
| 2028 | 9.83 | 13.37 | 6.3 | 8.82 – 10.85 |
| 2030 | 8.42 | 12.98 | 3.85 | 7.04 – 9.79 |
| 2035 | 4.87 | 11.33 | 0 | 3.1 – 6.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GUY · API docs
