Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Hong Kong: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 29/100); the economy is in slowdown; 3 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.34 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.42, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.56) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±6.3201 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Hong Kong: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2033, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed12.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 13.5 | 18.62 | 8.37 | 12.23 – 14.76 |
| 2029 | 15.29 | 24.16 | 6.41 | 12.74 – 17.83 |
| 2031 | 17.08 | 28.54 | 5.63 | 13.38 – 20.79 |
| 2036 | 21.56 | 30 | 5.36 | 14.81 – 28.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed199.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 122.33 | 143.04 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 102.07 | 134.9 – 150 |
| 2030 | 150 | 150 | 88.12 | 127.8 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 62.49 | 111.57 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed427.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 465.6bn | 501.6bn | 434.3bn | 451.1bn – 480bn |
| 2029 | 503.9bn | 566.2bn | 449.8bn | 466.6bn – 541.1bn |
| 2031 | 542.2bn | 622.7bn | 472.4bn | 480.6bn – 603.7bn |
| 2036 | 638bn | 751.8bn | 539.3bn | 505.6bn – 770.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.34 | 12 | -7.58 | 0.39 – 4.28 |
| 2029 | 2.21 | 12 | -10 | -1.2 – 5.62 |
| 2031 | 2.08 | 12 | -10 | -2.35 – 6.52 |
| 2036 | 1.77 | 12 | -10 | -4.55 – 8.08 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 61.6k | 66.2k | 57.7k | 59.7k – 63.5k |
| 2029 | 66.6k | 74.4k | 59.8k | 61.7k – 71.5k |
| 2031 | 71.6k | 81.7k | 62.8k | 63.4k – 79.7k |
| 2036 | 84k | 98.3k | 71.6k | 66.6k – 101.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.74 | 17.65 | 13.55 | 15.2 – 16.29 |
| 2029 | 19.03 | 22.33 | 15.23 | 17.61 – 20.46 |
| 2031 | 22.32 | 26.58 | 17.41 | 19.79 – 24.86 |
| 2036 | 30.55 | 36.57 | 23.6 | 24.21 – 36.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed196.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 122.7 | 143.42 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 102.72 | 135.56 – 150 |
| 2030 | 150 | 150 | 88.96 | 128.66 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 63.68 | 112.79 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.4 | 3.18 | 1.56 | 2.19 – 2.61 |
| 2029 | 3.33 | 4.69 | 1.87 | 2.87 – 3.79 |
| 2031 | 4.26 | 6.01 | 2.38 | 3.53 – 4.99 |
| 2036 | 6.58 | 9.06 | 3.92 | 4.98 – 8.18 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.88 | 19.52 | 14.59 | 16.23 – 17.52 |
| 2028 | 16.67 | 21.25 | 12.7 | 15.22 – 18.13 |
| 2030 | 16.47 | 22.37 | 11.34 | 14.3 – 18.63 |
| 2035 | 15.95 | 24.31 | 8.71 | 12.21 – 19.7 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.6m | 7.9m | 7.2m | 7.3m – 7.8m |
| 2029 | 7.6m | 8m | 7.3m | 7m – 8.2m |
| 2031 | 7.7m | 8m | 7.3m | 6.8m – 8.5m |
| 2036 | 7.8m | 8.3m | 7.4m | 6.2m – 9.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.7 | 15 | -3.4 | 4.09 – 7.3 |
| 2028 | 8.91 | 15 | -6.84 | 5.86 – 11.97 |
| 2030 | 12.13 | 15 | -8.2 | 7.77 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 7.81 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed425.4bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 412.4bn | 486.6bn | 338.3bn | 394.5bn – 430.4bn |
| 2026 | 384.6bn | 513.1bn | 256.2bn | 346.5bn – 422.7bn |
| 2028 | 356.8bn | 522.6bn | 191bn | 302.9bn – 410.8bn |
| 2033 | 287.4bn | 521.9bn | 52.9bn | 205.5bn – 369.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.69(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5.81 | 7.19 | 4.43 | 5.51 – 6.11 |
| 2026 | 5.96 | 8.34 | 3.57 | 5.31 – 6.61 |
| 2028 | 6.03 | 9.11 | 2.95 | 5.08 – 6.98 |
| 2033 | 6.09 | 10.44 | 1.73 | 4.45 – 7.73 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed425.6bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 412.5bn | 486.7bn | 338.4bn | 394.6bn – 430.5bn |
| 2026 | 384.8bn | 513.2bn | 256.3bn | 346.6bn – 422.9bn |
| 2028 | 357bn | 522.8bn | 191.2bn | 303.1bn – 410.9bn |
| 2033 | 287.6bn | 522.1bn | 53.1bn | 205.7bn – 369.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 1.61 | 2.66 – 3.15 |
| 2029 | 2.11 | 4.36 | 0 | 1.66 – 2.55 |
| 2031 | 1.32 | 4.22 | 0 | 0.77 – 1.87 |
| 2036 | 0 | 4.1 | 0 | 0 – 0.79 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/HKG · API docs
