Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Hong Kong: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 12/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.94 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.76, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.74) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±1.5398 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Hong Kong: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed12.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.37 | 18.54 | 8.21 | 12.11 – 14.64 |
| 2028 | 15.72 | 24.67 | 6.78 | 13.14 – 18.3 |
| 2030 | 18.07 | 29.62 | 6.52 | 14.27 – 21.87 |
| 2035 | 23.94 | 30 | 7.61 | 16.77 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed199.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 122.33 | 143.04 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 102.07 | 134.9 – 150 |
| 2030 | 150 | 150 | 88.12 | 127.8 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 62.49 | 111.57 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed427.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 442bn | 477.6bn | 411.2bn | 428.3bn – 455.7bn |
| 2028 | 477.5bn | 539.1bn | 424.1bn | 442.2bn – 512.8bn |
| 2030 | 513bn | 592.5bn | 444.1bn | 454.7bn – 571.2bn |
| 2035 | 601.7bn | 714.1bn | 504.2bn | 476.9bn – 726.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.94 | 12 | -10 | 1.17 – 6.71 |
| 2028 | 5.14 | 12 | -10 | 0.2 – 10.08 |
| 2030 | 6.34 | 12 | -10 | -0.23 – 12 |
| 2035 | 9.33 | 12 | -10 | -0.73 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.7k | 63.3k | 54.7k | 56.9k – 60.5k |
| 2028 | 63k | 71k | 56.1k | 58.3k – 67.7k |
| 2030 | 67.3k | 77.6k | 58.4k | 59.6k – 74.9k |
| 2035 | 78k | 92.5k | 65.4k | 61.8k – 94.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.2 | 15.24 | 10.84 | 12.67 – 13.72 |
| 2028 | 15.79 | 19.32 | 11.71 | 14.49 – 17.09 |
| 2030 | 18.38 | 22.94 | 13.11 | 16.21 – 20.55 |
| 2035 | 24.86 | 31.31 | 17.41 | 19.7 – 30.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed196.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 122.7 | 143.42 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 102.72 | 135.56 – 150 |
| 2030 | 150 | 150 | 88.96 | 128.66 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 63.68 | 112.79 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.34 | 2.57 | 0.03 | 1.05 – 1.63 |
| 2028 | 0.93 | 3.05 | -1.34 | 0.41 – 1.45 |
| 2030 | 0.52 | 3.26 | -2.42 | -0.17 – 1.21 |
| 2035 | -0.51 | 3.37 | -4.66 | -1.53 – 0.51 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.88 | 19.52 | 14.59 | 16.23 – 17.52 |
| 2028 | 16.67 | 21.25 | 12.7 | 15.22 – 18.13 |
| 2030 | 16.47 | 22.37 | 11.34 | 14.3 – 18.63 |
| 2035 | 15.95 | 24.31 | 8.71 | 12.21 – 19.7 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.5m | 7.8m | 7.2m | 7.3m – 7.7m |
| 2028 | 7.5m | 7.8m | 7.1m | 6.9m – 8m |
| 2030 | 7.4m | 7.8m | 7.1m | 6.6m – 8.3m |
| 2035 | 7.4m | 7.8m | 6.9m | 5.8m – 8.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.7 | 15 | -3.4 | 4.09 – 7.3 |
| 2028 | 8.91 | 15 | -6.84 | 5.86 – 11.97 |
| 2030 | 12.13 | 15 | -8.2 | 7.77 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 7.81 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed425.4bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 412.4bn | 486.6bn | 338.3bn | 394.5bn – 430.4bn |
| 2026 | 384.6bn | 513.1bn | 256.2bn | 346.5bn – 422.7bn |
| 2028 | 356.8bn | 522.6bn | 191bn | 302.9bn – 410.8bn |
| 2033 | 287.4bn | 521.9bn | 52.9bn | 205.5bn – 369.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.69(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5.81 | 7.19 | 4.43 | 5.51 – 6.11 |
| 2026 | 5.96 | 8.34 | 3.57 | 5.31 – 6.61 |
| 2028 | 6.03 | 9.11 | 2.95 | 5.08 – 6.98 |
| 2033 | 6.09 | 10.44 | 1.73 | 4.45 – 7.73 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed425.6bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 412.5bn | 486.7bn | 338.4bn | 394.6bn – 430.5bn |
| 2026 | 384.8bn | 513.2bn | 256.3bn | 346.6bn – 422.9bn |
| 2028 | 357bn | 522.8bn | 191.2bn | 303.1bn – 410.9bn |
| 2033 | 287.6bn | 522.1bn | 53.1bn | 205.7bn – 369.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.14 | 3.12 | 1.17 | 1.96 – 2.33 |
| 2028 | 0.83 | 2.52 | 0 | 0.52 – 1.14 |
| 2030 | 0 | 2.18 | 0 | 0 – 0.41 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.08 | 0 | 0 – 0.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/HKG · API docs
