Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Honduras: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 44/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.79 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.12, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.20) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-15% skill vs naive; realized ±4.8599 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Honduras: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.56 | 7.45 | -12.57 | -4.64 – -0.47 |
| 2029 | -2.47 | 14.87 | -19.81 | -6.12 – 1.19 |
| 2031 | -2.38 | 20 | -24.76 | -7.14 – 2.38 |
| 2036 | -2.16 | 29.49 | -30 | -8.97 – 4.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.17 | 41.03 | 28.22 | 32.64 – 35.7 |
| 2028 | 32.52 | 44.41 | 22.22 | 29.26 – 35.78 |
| 2030 | 30.87 | 46.22 | 17.57 | 26.21 – 35.54 |
| 2035 | 26.76 | 48.46 | 7.94 | 19.37 – 34.14 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 43.5bn | 47.3bn | 40.2bn | 42.1bn – 44.8bn |
| 2029 | 48.5bn | 55.1bn | 42.9bn | 45bn – 52.1bn |
| 2031 | 53.6bn | 62bn | 46.3bn | 47.5bn – 59.7bn |
| 2036 | 66.2bn | 78.1bn | 55.9bn | 52.5bn – 80bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.79 | 9.71 | -3.21 | 1.59 – 3.99 |
| 2029 | 1.55 | 12 | -8.84 | -0.52 – 3.62 |
| 2031 | 0.32 | 12 | -10 | -2.34 – 2.97 |
| 2036 | -2.78 | 12 | -10 | -6.87 – 1.32 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.9k | 4.2k | 3.5k | 3.7k – 4k |
| 2029 | 4.2k | 4.9k | 3.7k | 3.9k – 4.5k |
| 2031 | 4.6k | 5.4k | 3.9k | 4.1k – 5.1k |
| 2036 | 5.5k | 6.6k | 4.5k | 4.3k – 6.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 43.58 | 51.57 | 34.36 | 41.65 – 45.51 |
| 2029 | 43.14 | 56.99 | 27.17 | 38.94 – 47.34 |
| 2031 | 42.71 | 60.58 | 22.08 | 36.54 – 48.87 |
| 2036 | 41.61 | 66.89 | 12.45 | 31.07 – 52.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.37 | 69.78 | 42.96 | 53.41 – 59.32 |
| 2028 | 56.07 | 79.3 | 32.85 | 49.83 – 62.32 |
| 2030 | 55.78 | 85.76 | 25.79 | 46.73 – 64.83 |
| 2035 | 55.04 | 97.45 | 12.63 | 39.74 – 70.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.39 | 9.47 | -1.06 | 3.19 – 5.58 |
| 2029 | 4.11 | 12.92 | -5 | 1.96 – 6.26 |
| 2031 | 3.84 | 15.21 | -5 | 1.01 – 6.66 |
| 2036 | 3.15 | 19.23 | -5 | -0.92 – 7.22 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.54 | 28.91 | 18.88 | 22.39 – 24.68 |
| 2028 | 24.01 | 33.32 | 15.95 | 21.53 – 26.5 |
| 2030 | 24.49 | 36.51 | 14.08 | 20.81 – 28.17 |
| 2035 | 25.68 | 42.68 | 10.96 | 19.15 – 32.22 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11.1m | 11.7m | 10.6m | 10.8m – 11.5m |
| 2029 | 11.3m | 11.9m | 10.8m | 10.5m – 12.2m |
| 2031 | 11.5m | 12.1m | 11m | 10.2m – 12.8m |
| 2036 | 12m | 12.6m | 11.5m | 9.5m – 14.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.67 | 8.45 | -5.17 | -0.32 – 1.66 |
| 2028 | -1.37 | 12.12 | -10 | -3.12 – 0.39 |
| 2030 | -3.4 | 14 | -10 | -5.85 – -0.95 |
| 2035 | -8.49 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -4.05 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.5bn | 12.7bn | 8.4bn | 10bn – 11bn |
| 2028 | 11.7bn | 15.4bn | 7.9bn | 10.5bn – 12.8bn |
| 2030 | 12.8bn | 17.6bn | 8bn | 11bn – 14.5bn |
| 2035 | 15.6bn | 22.4bn | 8.8bn | 12.1bn – 19.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.23 | 8.21 | 2.26 | 4.7 – 5.77 |
| 2028 | 5.15 | 10.3 | 0.01 | 4.12 – 6.19 |
| 2030 | 5.11 | 11.76 | 0 | 3.69 – 6.54 |
| 2035 | 5.08 | 14.48 | 0 | 2.83 – 7.33 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.6bn | 12.8bn | 8.5bn | 10.1bn – 11.1bn |
| 2028 | 11.8bn | 15.5bn | 8bn | 10.7bn – 12.9bn |
| 2030 | 12.9bn | 17.8bn | 8.1bn | 11.2bn – 14.7bn |
| 2035 | 15.8bn | 22.7bn | 9bn | 12.3bn – 19.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.19 | 9.19 | 3.2 | 5.64 – 6.75 |
| 2029 | 4.98 | 10.17 | 0 | 3.95 – 6.01 |
| 2031 | 3.76 | 10.46 | 0 | 2.44 – 5.09 |
| 2036 | 0.73 | 10.2 | 0 | 0 – 2.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/HND · API docs
