Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Honduras: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 27/100); the economy is in expansion; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.16 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.46, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.42) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-15% skill vs naive; realized ±0.8629 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Honduras: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.78 | 12.21 | -6.65 | 0.81 – 4.75 |
| 2028 | 3.54 | 19.87 | -12.79 | 0.04 – 7.04 |
| 2030 | 4.3 | 25.38 | -16.79 | -0.35 – 8.95 |
| 2035 | 6.2 | 30 | -23.62 | -0.88 – 13.27 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.17 | 41.03 | 28.22 | 32.64 – 35.7 |
| 2028 | 32.52 | 44.41 | 22.22 | 29.26 – 35.78 |
| 2030 | 30.87 | 46.22 | 17.57 | 26.21 – 35.54 |
| 2035 | 26.76 | 48.46 | 7.94 | 19.37 – 34.14 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.7bn | 45.6bn | 38.2bn | 40.4bn – 42.9bn |
| 2028 | 46.9bn | 53.7bn | 41bn | 43.4bn – 50.3bn |
| 2030 | 52.1bn | 60.9bn | 44.5bn | 46.2bn – 58bn |
| 2035 | 65.1bn | 77.6bn | 54.3bn | 51.6bn – 78.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.16 | 12 | -10 | 0.59 – 7.74 |
| 2028 | 5.06 | 12 | -10 | -1.26 – 11.38 |
| 2030 | 5.95 | 12 | -10 | -2.37 – 12 |
| 2035 | 8.19 | 12 | -10 | -4.21 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.7k | 4.1k | 3.4k | 3.6k – 3.9k |
| 2028 | 4.1k | 4.8k | 3.6k | 3.8k – 4.4k |
| 2030 | 4.5k | 5.4k | 3.8k | 4k – 5k |
| 2035 | 5.5k | 6.7k | 4.4k | 4.3k – 6.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.35 | 49.27 | 32.2 | 39.46 – 43.23 |
| 2028 | 41.64 | 55.37 | 25.79 | 37.53 – 45.75 |
| 2030 | 41.93 | 59.66 | 21.48 | 35.85 – 48.01 |
| 2035 | 42.66 | 67.73 | 13.73 | 31.98 – 53.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.37 | 69.78 | 42.96 | 53.41 – 59.32 |
| 2028 | 56.07 | 79.3 | 32.85 | 49.83 – 62.32 |
| 2030 | 55.78 | 85.76 | 25.79 | 46.73 – 64.83 |
| 2035 | 55.04 | 97.45 | 12.63 | 39.74 – 70.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.8 | 9.95 | -0.71 | 3.59 – 6.02 |
| 2028 | 4.79 | 13.7 | -4.76 | 2.58 – 7 |
| 2030 | 4.78 | 16.28 | -5 | 1.84 – 7.71 |
| 2035 | 4.74 | 21.02 | -5 | 0.38 – 9.11 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.54 | 28.91 | 18.88 | 22.39 – 24.68 |
| 2028 | 24.01 | 33.32 | 15.95 | 21.53 – 26.5 |
| 2030 | 24.49 | 36.51 | 14.08 | 20.81 – 28.17 |
| 2035 | 25.68 | 42.68 | 10.96 | 19.15 – 32.22 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11m | 11.5m | 10.5m | 10.6m – 11.3m |
| 2028 | 11.2m | 11.7m | 10.7m | 10.3m – 12m |
| 2030 | 11.4m | 11.9m | 10.9m | 10.1m – 12.6m |
| 2035 | 11.8m | 12.4m | 11.3m | 9.4m – 14.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.67 | 8.45 | -5.17 | -0.32 – 1.66 |
| 2028 | -1.37 | 12.12 | -10 | -3.12 – 0.39 |
| 2030 | -3.4 | 14 | -10 | -5.85 – -0.95 |
| 2035 | -8.49 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -4.05 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.5bn | 12.7bn | 8.4bn | 10bn – 11bn |
| 2028 | 11.7bn | 15.4bn | 7.9bn | 10.5bn – 12.8bn |
| 2030 | 12.8bn | 17.6bn | 8bn | 11bn – 14.5bn |
| 2035 | 15.6bn | 22.4bn | 8.8bn | 12.1bn – 19.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.23 | 8.21 | 2.26 | 4.7 – 5.77 |
| 2028 | 5.15 | 10.3 | 0.01 | 4.12 – 6.19 |
| 2030 | 5.11 | 11.76 | 0 | 3.69 – 6.54 |
| 2035 | 5.08 | 14.48 | 0 | 2.83 – 7.33 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.6bn | 12.8bn | 8.5bn | 10.1bn – 11.1bn |
| 2028 | 11.8bn | 15.5bn | 8bn | 10.7bn – 12.9bn |
| 2030 | 12.9bn | 17.8bn | 8.1bn | 11.2bn – 14.7bn |
| 2035 | 15.8bn | 22.7bn | 9bn | 12.3bn – 19.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.67 | 6.07 | 1.27 | 3.24 – 4.09 |
| 2028 | 1.17 | 5.33 | 0 | 0.47 – 1.86 |
| 2030 | 0 | 5.37 | 0 | 0 – 0.9 |
| 2035 | 0 | 7.6 | 0 | 0 – 1.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/HND · API docs
