Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC): macro conditions look supportive (pressure 20/100); the economy is in expansion; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.77 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.60, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.54) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-18% skill vs naive; realized ±0.5111 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC): forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed24.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.33 | 27.56 | 21.53 | 23.48 – 25.18 |
| 2028 | 24.64 | 30.24 | 19.79 | 22.66 – 26.63 |
| 2030 | 24.96 | 32.19 | 18.7 | 21.93 – 27.99 |
| 2035 | 25.75 | 35.98 | 16.89 | 20.17 – 31.33 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4T | 1.4T | 1.3T | 1.3T – 1.4T |
| 2028 | 1.5T | 1.7T | 1.4T | 1.4T – 1.6T |
| 2030 | 1.7T | 1.9T | 1.5T | 1.5T – 1.9T |
| 2035 | 2.1T | 2.4T | 1.9T | 1.7T – 2.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.77 | 10.72 | 3.35 | 6 – 7.54 |
| 2028 | 8.87 | 12 | 2.95 | 7.31 – 10.44 |
| 2030 | 10.98 | 12 | 3.33 | 8.63 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | 1.18 | 8 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4k | 1.5k | 1.3k | 1.3k – 1.4k |
| 2028 | 1.5k | 1.7k | 1.4k | 1.4k – 1.6k |
| 2030 | 1.6k | 1.8k | 1.4k | 1.4k – 1.8k |
| 2035 | 1.9k | 2.2k | 1.7k | 1.5k – 2.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.01 | 33.72 | 26.29 | 28.96 – 31.05 |
| 2028 | 29.84 | 36.27 | 23.41 | 27.43 – 32.26 |
| 2030 | 29.68 | 37.98 | 21.38 | 26.03 – 33.32 |
| 2035 | 29.27 | 41.01 | 17.53 | 22.79 – 35.75 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.17 | 9.12 | -3.2 | 1.8 – 4.54 |
| 2028 | 1.49 | 11.8 | -5 | -0.87 – 3.85 |
| 2030 | -0.19 | 13.12 | -5 | -3.22 – 2.84 |
| 2035 | -4.4 | 14.42 | -5 | -5 – 0.47 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.06 | 23.02 | 19.37 | 20.41 – 21.72 |
| 2028 | 19.63 | 23.02 | 16.69 | 18.18 – 21.08 |
| 2030 | 18.2 | 22.57 | 14.41 | 16.12 – 20.28 |
| 2035 | 14.62 | 20.81 | 9.26 | 11.4 – 17.84 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed965.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 958.9m | 1bn | 916.9m | 929.2m – 988.7m |
| 2028 | 986.3m | 1bn | 943m | 913.3m – 1.1bn |
| 2030 | 1bn | 1.1bn | 969.1m | 898.5m – 1.1bn |
| 2035 | 1.1bn | 1.1bn | 1bn | 857.5m – 1.3bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.55 | 7.14 | -0.9 | 1.93 – 3.16 |
| 2028 | 3.61 | 11.57 | -2.36 | 2.44 – 4.78 |
| 2030 | 4.68 | 14.96 | -3.03 | 3.02 – 6.34 |
| 2035 | 7.34 | 15 | -3.56 | 4.35 – 10.33 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.89(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.26 | 6.25 | 2.27 | 3.89 – 4.64 |
| 2027 | 4.71 | 8.16 | 1.27 | 3.96 – 5.47 |
| 2029 | 4.93 | 9.38 | 0.49 | 3.86 – 6.01 |
| 2034 | 5.11 | 11.4 | 0 | 3.33 – 6.89 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.94 | 4.3 | 3.59 | 3.82 – 4.07 |
| 2028 | 3.54 | 4.16 | 2.93 | 3.28 – 3.81 |
| 2030 | 3.15 | 3.94 | 2.35 | 2.77 – 3.52 |
| 2035 | 2.15 | 3.27 | 1.03 | 1.63 – 2.66 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/HPC · API docs
