Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Croatia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.62 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.26) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±1.0233 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Croatia: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.78 | 1.7 | -9.26 | -4.96 – -2.6 |
| 2028 | -4.94 | 4.55 | -14.43 | -7.12 – -2.77 |
| 2030 | -6.1 | 6.15 | -18.36 | -9.09 – -3.12 |
| 2035 | -9.01 | 8.32 | -26.34 | -13.99 – -4.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 48.38 | 62.4 | 36.22 | 45.6 – 51.15 |
| 2028 | 49.18 | 73.48 | 28.12 | 43.35 – 55.01 |
| 2030 | 49.99 | 81.36 | 22.8 | 41.51 – 58.47 |
| 2035 | 52 | 96.36 | 13.56 | 37.35 – 66.66 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed105.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 112.4bn | 125.7bn | 101bn | 108.9bn – 115.9bn |
| 2028 | 130.7bn | 153.6bn | 110.8bn | 121bn – 140.4bn |
| 2030 | 149bn | 178.6bn | 123.3bn | 132.1bn – 165.9bn |
| 2035 | 194.7bn | 236.6bn | 158.4bn | 154.3bn – 235.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.62 | 12 | -10 | 0.24 – 7.01 |
| 2028 | 4.02 | 12 | -10 | -1.94 – 9.98 |
| 2030 | 4.42 | 12 | -10 | -3.38 – 12 |
| 2035 | 5.42 | 12 | -10 | -5.97 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29k | 32.3k | 26.1k | 28.1k – 29.9k |
| 2028 | 33.7k | 39.4k | 28.7k | 31.2k – 36.1k |
| 2030 | 38.3k | 45.7k | 32k | 34k – 42.7k |
| 2035 | 50.1k | 60.5k | 41.1k | 39.7k – 60.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.58(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.19 | 5.47 | 0.74 | 2.57 – 3.8 |
| 2029 | 2.72 | 6.67 | 0 | 1.61 – 3.82 |
| 2031 | 2.49 | 7.59 | 0 | 1.03 – 3.94 |
| 2036 | 2.3 | 9.52 | 0 | 0.16 – 4.45 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.37 | 66.13 | 38.65 | 50.55 – 56.19 |
| 2028 | 48.31 | 70.42 | 22.81 | 42.59 – 54.03 |
| 2030 | 43.26 | 71.79 | 10.33 | 35.41 – 51.11 |
| 2035 | 30.62 | 70.97 | 0 | 19.51 – 41.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.89 | 67.37 | 40.4 | 50.96 – 56.81 |
| 2028 | 55.63 | 78.99 | 32.27 | 49.39 – 61.88 |
| 2030 | 57.38 | 87.53 | 27.22 | 48.17 – 66.58 |
| 2035 | 61.74 | 104.39 | 19.09 | 45.33 – 78.15 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.43 | 13.7 | -5 | 2.31 – 6.56 |
| 2028 | 5.44 | 21.49 | -5 | 1.62 – 9.26 |
| 2030 | 6.45 | 27.17 | -5 | 1.34 – 11.55 |
| 2035 | 8.96 | 38.27 | -5 | 1.03 – 16.89 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.76 | 11.86 | -4.91 | 1.91 – 5.62 |
| 2029 | 3.83 | 17.85 | -5 | 0.53 – 7.12 |
| 2031 | 3.85 | 21.95 | -5 | -0.47 – 8.17 |
| 2036 | 3.86 | 29.47 | -5 | -2.43 – 10.15 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.58 | 29.29 | 24.23 | 25.76 – 27.4 |
| 2028 | 28.66 | 33.36 | 24.59 | 26.54 – 30.79 |
| 2030 | 30.75 | 36.82 | 25.49 | 27.26 – 34.24 |
| 2035 | 35.96 | 44.54 | 28.53 | 28.5 – 43.42 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.9m | 4.1m | 3.7m | 3.8m – 4m |
| 2028 | 3.9m | 4.1m | 3.7m | 3.6m – 4.2m |
| 2030 | 3.9m | 4.1m | 3.7m | 3.5m – 4.3m |
| 2035 | 3.9m | 4.1m | 3.8m | 3.1m – 4.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.95 | 15 | -10 | 0.46 – 5.44 |
| 2028 | 2.3 | 15 | -10 | -2.04 – 6.64 |
| 2030 | 1.65 | 15 | -10 | -3.95 – 7.24 |
| 2035 | 0.02 | 15 | -10 | -7.87 – 7.9 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0 | 19.6bn | 0 | 0 – 3bn |
| 2028 | 0 | 33.9bn | 0 | 0 – 5.2bn |
| 2030 | 0 | 43.8bn | 0 | 0 – 6.7bn |
| 2035 | 0 | 61.9bn | 0 | 0 – 9.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.69(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.32 | 6.64 | 0 | 1.62 – 3.02 |
| 2027 | 4.26 | 11.74 | 0 | 2.91 – 5.61 |
| 2029 | 5.21 | 14.87 | 0 | 3.32 – 7.1 |
| 2034 | 5.97 | 19.62 | 0 | 2.92 – 9.01 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0 | 19.7bn | 0 | 0 – 3bn |
| 2028 | 0 | 34.1bn | 0 | 0 – 5.2bn |
| 2030 | 0 | 44bn | 0 | 0 – 6.7bn |
| 2035 | 0 | 62.2bn | 0 | 0 – 9.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.43 | 5.33 | 3.53 | 4.22 – 4.64 |
| 2028 | 3.28 | 4.84 | 1.72 | 2.89 – 3.68 |
| 2030 | 2.13 | 4.15 | 0.12 | 1.66 – 2.61 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.85 | 0 | 0 – 0.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/HRV · API docs
