Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Croatia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 46/100); the economy is in slowdown; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.72 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.08, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.12) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±6.0995 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Croatia: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.41 | 0.9 | -9.73 | -5.57 – -3.26 |
| 2029 | -5.64 | 3.56 | -14.84 | -7.79 – -3.49 |
| 2031 | -6.87 | 5.01 | -18.75 | -9.85 – -3.9 |
| 2036 | -9.94 | 6.86 | -26.74 | -14.96 – -4.92 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 48.38 | 62.4 | 36.22 | 45.6 – 51.15 |
| 2028 | 49.18 | 73.48 | 28.12 | 43.35 – 55.01 |
| 2030 | 49.99 | 81.36 | 22.8 | 41.51 – 58.47 |
| 2035 | 52 | 96.36 | 13.56 | 37.35 – 66.66 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed105.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 124.2bn | 136.6bn | 113.4bn | 120.3bn – 128bn |
| 2029 | 143.5bn | 165.1bn | 124.8bn | 132.9bn – 154.1bn |
| 2031 | 162.9bn | 190.7bn | 138.7bn | 144.4bn – 181.3bn |
| 2036 | 211.2bn | 250.5bn | 177.1bn | 167.4bn – 255bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.72 | 6.09 | -2.07 | 0.96 – 2.48 |
| 2029 | -0.38 | 7.19 | -6.94 | -1.69 – 0.93 |
| 2031 | -2.48 | 7.29 | -10 | -4.31 – -0.66 |
| 2036 | -7.74 | 6.09 | -10 | -10 – -4.19 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 31.9k | 35k | 29.3k | 31k – 32.9k |
| 2029 | 36.9k | 42.2k | 32.2k | 34.2k – 39.6k |
| 2031 | 41.8k | 48.7k | 35.8k | 37.1k – 46.6k |
| 2036 | 54.2k | 64k | 45.7k | 42.9k – 65.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.57(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.18 | 5.46 | 0.73 | 2.57 – 3.79 |
| 2029 | 2.71 | 6.67 | 0 | 1.61 – 3.82 |
| 2031 | 2.49 | 7.59 | 0 | 1.03 – 3.94 |
| 2036 | 2.3 | 9.52 | 0 | 0.16 – 4.45 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 53.78 | 66.66 | 38.91 | 50.93 – 56.62 |
| 2029 | 48.33 | 70.64 | 22.58 | 42.57 – 54.08 |
| 2031 | 42.88 | 71.68 | 9.63 | 35.01 – 50.74 |
| 2036 | 29.25 | 69.99 | 0 | 18.3 – 40.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.89 | 67.37 | 40.4 | 50.96 – 56.81 |
| 2028 | 55.63 | 78.99 | 32.27 | 49.39 – 61.88 |
| 2030 | 57.38 | 87.53 | 27.22 | 48.17 – 66.58 |
| 2035 | 61.74 | 104.39 | 19.09 | 45.33 – 78.15 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.76 | 13.87 | -5 | 2.66 – 6.85 |
| 2029 | 5.75 | 21.53 | -5 | 1.97 – 9.52 |
| 2031 | 6.74 | 27.12 | -5 | 1.68 – 11.8 |
| 2036 | 9.22 | 38.04 | -5 | 1.36 – 17.08 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.7 | 11.8 | -4.98 | 1.85 – 5.55 |
| 2029 | 3.8 | 17.83 | -5 | 0.5 – 7.09 |
| 2031 | 3.83 | 21.94 | -5 | -0.49 – 8.15 |
| 2036 | 3.85 | 29.46 | -5 | -2.45 – 10.14 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.58 | 29.29 | 24.23 | 25.76 – 27.4 |
| 2028 | 28.66 | 33.36 | 24.59 | 26.54 – 30.79 |
| 2030 | 30.75 | 36.82 | 25.49 | 27.26 – 34.24 |
| 2035 | 35.96 | 44.54 | 28.53 | 28.5 – 43.42 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.9m | 4.1m | 3.7m | 3.8m – 4m |
| 2029 | 3.9m | 4.1m | 3.7m | 3.6m – 4.2m |
| 2031 | 3.9m | 4.1m | 3.7m | 3.5m – 4.3m |
| 2036 | 3.9m | 4.1m | 3.7m | 3.1m – 4.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.95 | 15 | -10 | 0.46 – 5.44 |
| 2028 | 2.3 | 15 | -10 | -2.04 – 6.64 |
| 2030 | 1.65 | 15 | -10 | -3.95 – 7.24 |
| 2035 | 0.02 | 15 | -10 | -7.87 – 7.9 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0 | 19.6bn | 0 | 0 – 3bn |
| 2028 | 0 | 33.9bn | 0 | 0 – 5.2bn |
| 2030 | 0 | 43.8bn | 0 | 0 – 6.7bn |
| 2035 | 0 | 61.9bn | 0 | 0 – 9.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.69(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.32 | 6.64 | 0 | 1.62 – 3.02 |
| 2027 | 4.26 | 11.74 | 0 | 2.91 – 5.61 |
| 2029 | 5.21 | 14.87 | 0 | 3.32 – 7.1 |
| 2034 | 5.97 | 19.62 | 0 | 2.92 – 9.01 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0 | 19.7bn | 0 | 0 – 3bn |
| 2028 | 0 | 34.1bn | 0 | 0 – 5.2bn |
| 2030 | 0 | 44bn | 0 | 0 – 6.7bn |
| 2035 | 0 | 62.2bn | 0 | 0 – 9.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4 | 4.73 | 3.28 | 3.83 – 4.18 |
| 2029 | 2.8 | 4.06 | 1.55 | 2.48 – 3.13 |
| 2031 | 1.61 | 3.23 | 0 | 1.23 – 1.98 |
| 2036 | 0 | 2.29 | 0 | 0 – 0.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/HRV · API docs
