Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Haiti: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 65/100); the economy is in recovery; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 18 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -1.02 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.30) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Recovery
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±4.0273 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Haiti: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed0.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.35 | 4.34 | -3.64 | -0.48 – 1.18 |
| 2029 | 0.65 | 7.56 | -6.26 | -0.81 – 2.11 |
| 2031 | 0.95 | 9.87 | -7.97 | -0.95 – 2.85 |
| 2036 | 1.7 | 14.31 | -10.91 | -1.15 – 4.55 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.13 | 2.56 | 0 | 0 – 0.49 |
| 2028 | 0 | 4.2 | 0 | 0 – 0.65 |
| 2030 | 0 | 5.43 | 0 | 0 – 0.86 |
| 2035 | 0 | 7.68 | 0 | 0 – 1.26 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 43.5bn | 51bn | 37bn | 41.9bn – 45.1bn |
| 2029 | 54bn | 67.1bn | 42.7bn | 49.9bn – 58.2bn |
| 2031 | 64.6bn | 81.4bn | 50bn | 57.2bn – 71.9bn |
| 2036 | 90.9bn | 114.7bn | 70.3bn | 72.1bn – 109.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.02 | 1.74 | -3.41 | -1.49 – -0.54 |
| 2029 | 0.42 | 5.19 | -3.73 | -0.43 – 1.26 |
| 2031 | 1.85 | 8.02 | -3.5 | 0.67 – 3.02 |
| 2036 | 5.43 | 12 | -2.13 | 3.11 – 7.76 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.4k | 4k | 2.9k | 3.3k – 3.5k |
| 2029 | 4.1k | 5.2k | 3.2k | 3.8k – 4.5k |
| 2031 | 4.9k | 6.2k | 3.7k | 4.3k – 5.5k |
| 2036 | 6.8k | 8.7k | 5.2k | 5.4k – 8.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.33 | 18.21 | 0 | 7.81 – 10.84 |
| 2029 | 6.58 | 21.97 | 0 | 3.9 – 9.26 |
| 2031 | 3.84 | 23.7 | 0 | 0.47 – 7.2 |
| 2036 | 0 | 28.09 | 0 | 0 – 4.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.3 | 14.76 | 7.83 | 10.59 – 12.01 |
| 2028 | 5.24 | 11.24 | 0 | 4.07 – 6.41 |
| 2030 | 0 | 7.74 | 0 | 0 – 1.27 |
| 2035 | 0 | 10.95 | 0 | 0 – 1.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 21.49 | 40.09 | 1.57 | 17.03 – 25.96 |
| 2029 | 14.29 | 46.5 | -5 | 6.47 – 22.12 |
| 2031 | 7.09 | 48.68 | -5 | -2.69 – 16.88 |
| 2036 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 8.84 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.17 | 14.41 | 8.37 | 10.53 – 11.81 |
| 2028 | 8.93 | 14.54 | 4.08 | 7.7 – 10.16 |
| 2030 | 6.69 | 13.92 | 0.42 | 5.12 – 8.26 |
| 2035 | 1.09 | 11.32 | 0 | 0 – 2.72 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.8m | 13.4m | 12.2m | 12.4m – 13.2m |
| 2029 | 13.7m | 14.4m | 13m | 12.6m – 14.7m |
| 2031 | 14.6m | 15.5m | 13.7m | 12.9m – 16.2m |
| 2036 | 16.8m | 18.1m | 15.6m | 13.3m – 20.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-3.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.29 | -1.16 | -6.63 | -4.74 – -3.83 |
| 2028 | -5.05 | 0.35 | -9.1 | -5.97 – -4.13 |
| 2030 | -5.82 | 1.16 | -10 | -7.15 – -4.48 |
| 2035 | -7.73 | 2.14 | -10 | -10 – -5.26 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.3bn | 3.9bn | 2.8bn | 3.2bn – 3.5bn |
| 2028 | 3.8bn | 4.7bn | 2.9bn | 3.5bn – 4.1bn |
| 2030 | 4.3bn | 5.5bn | 3.1bn | 3.7bn – 4.8bn |
| 2035 | 5.5bn | 7.1bn | 3.8bn | 4.3bn – 6.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.77(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.48 | 8.5 | 4.46 | 6.07 – 6.89 |
| 2027 | 6.13 | 9.63 | 2.64 | 5.3 – 6.96 |
| 2029 | 5.96 | 10.48 | 1.45 | 4.8 – 7.13 |
| 2034 | 5.83 | 12.21 | 0 | 3.92 – 7.74 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.6bn | 4.2bn | 3bn | 3.5bn – 3.8bn |
| 2028 | 4.2bn | 5.2bn | 3.1bn | 3.8bn – 4.5bn |
| 2030 | 4.7bn | 6bn | 3.4bn | 4.1bn – 5.3bn |
| 2035 | 6.1bn | 7.9bn | 4.2bn | 4.8bn – 7.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.79 | 15.53 | 14.05 | 14.33 – 15.25 |
| 2028 | 14.49 | 15.77 | 13.21 | 13.42 – 15.56 |
| 2030 | 14.19 | 15.84 | 12.54 | 12.58 – 15.8 |
| 2035 | 13.43 | 15.77 | 11.1 | 10.65 – 16.22 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/HTI · API docs
