Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Hungary: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 40/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.64 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.20, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.12) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-3% skill vs naive; realized ±7.038 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Hungary: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.08 | 8.18 | -8.02 | -1.59 – 1.75 |
| 2029 | 1.04 | 15.07 | -12.98 | -1.87 – 3.95 |
| 2031 | 2 | 20.11 | -16.1 | -1.85 – 5.86 |
| 2036 | 4.41 | 30 | -21.19 | -1.52 – 10.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 71.69 | 83.41 | 61.52 | 68.86 – 74.51 |
| 2028 | 69.79 | 90.1 | 52.19 | 63.54 – 76.05 |
| 2030 | 67.9 | 94.12 | 45.18 | 58.73 – 77.08 |
| 2035 | 63.18 | 100.26 | 31.04 | 47.77 – 78.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed246.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 285.4bn | 317.6bn | 257.5bn | 276.5bn – 294.2bn |
| 2029 | 321.9bn | 377.7bn | 273.5bn | 298.1bn – 345.7bn |
| 2031 | 358.4bn | 430.4bn | 296bn | 317.7bn – 399.1bn |
| 2036 | 449.6bn | 551.4bn | 361.3bn | 356.3bn – 542.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.64 | 6.93 | -2.95 | 0.73 – 2.55 |
| 2029 | 1.45 | 10.62 | -6.5 | -0.15 – 3.05 |
| 2031 | 1.26 | 12 | -9.01 | -0.82 – 3.33 |
| 2036 | 0.78 | 12 | -10 | -2.17 – 3.74 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 29.9k | 33.3k | 27k | 29k – 30.9k |
| 2029 | 33.8k | 39.6k | 28.8k | 31.3k – 36.4k |
| 2031 | 37.8k | 45.2k | 31.3k | 33.5k – 42k |
| 2036 | 47.5k | 58.1k | 38.4k | 37.7k – 57.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 78.64 | 87.84 | 68.02 | 75.96 – 81.31 |
| 2029 | 80.11 | 96.06 | 61.72 | 73.82 – 86.41 |
| 2031 | 81.59 | 102.17 | 57.84 | 71.9 – 91.28 |
| 2036 | 85.28 | 114.39 | 51.69 | 67.16 – 103.41 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed68.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 67.01 | 85.16 | 48.85 | 63.16 – 70.86 |
| 2028 | 64.72 | 96.17 | 33.28 | 56.8 – 72.64 |
| 2030 | 62.44 | 103.03 | 21.84 | 51.23 – 73.64 |
| 2035 | 56.72 | 114.13 | 0 | 38.86 – 74.59 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.81 | 18.93 | -5 | 0.4 – 7.22 |
| 2029 | 2.95 | 29.13 | -5 | -2.99 – 8.9 |
| 2031 | 2.1 | 35.89 | -5 | -5 – 9.76 |
| 2036 | -0.05 | 47.75 | -5 | -5 – 10.71 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.66 | 21.81 | -5 | -0.42 – 7.74 |
| 2029 | 5.16 | 36.59 | -5 | -2.06 – 12.37 |
| 2031 | 5.7 | 46.27 | -5 | -3.75 – 15.15 |
| 2036 | 5.98 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 19.65 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.9 | 24.09 | 18.14 | 20.11 – 21.69 |
| 2028 | 18.34 | 23.86 | 13.56 | 16.67 – 20.01 |
| 2030 | 15.78 | 22.9 | 9.61 | 13.5 – 18.06 |
| 2035 | 9.37 | 19.44 | 0.64 | 6.43 – 12.31 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.6m | 10m | 9.1m | 9.3m – 9.8m |
| 2029 | 9.6m | 10m | 9.2m | 8.9m – 10.3m |
| 2031 | 9.6m | 10.1m | 9.2m | 8.5m – 10.7m |
| 2036 | 9.7m | 10.1m | 9.2m | 7.7m – 11.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.9 | 13.33 | -8.43 | -0.67 – 2.47 |
| 2028 | 0.4 | 15 | -10 | -2.34 – 3.14 |
| 2030 | -0.11 | 15 | -10 | -3.66 – 3.45 |
| 2035 | -1.36 | 15 | -10 | -6.49 – 3.77 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.1bn | 53.4bn | 36.8bn | 43.1bn – 47.1bn |
| 2028 | 48.9bn | 63.3bn | 34.6bn | 44.4bn – 53.5bn |
| 2030 | 52.7bn | 71.3bn | 34.2bn | 45.7bn – 59.8bn |
| 2035 | 62.2bn | 88.4bn | 36bn | 48.3bn – 76.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.3 | 4.25 | 2.34 | 3.1 – 3.5 |
| 2028 | 3.06 | 4.72 | 1.4 | 2.66 – 3.46 |
| 2030 | 2.95 | 5.09 | 0.81 | 2.38 – 3.51 |
| 2035 | 2.85 | 5.88 | 0 | 1.93 – 3.77 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.7bn | 72.4bn | 53bn | 60.2bn – 65.2bn |
| 2028 | 71.9bn | 88.7bn | 55bn | 65.8bn – 77.9bn |
| 2030 | 81bn | 102.7bn | 59.3bn | 71.2bn – 90.8bn |
| 2035 | 103.9bn | 134.7bn | 73.2bn | 82.4bn – 125.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.32 | 5.06 | 3.58 | 4.13 – 4.5 |
| 2029 | 4.55 | 5.84 | 3.27 | 4.14 – 4.97 |
| 2031 | 4.79 | 6.45 | 3.13 | 4.15 – 5.42 |
| 2036 | 5.38 | 7.72 | 3.03 | 4.16 – 6.59 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/HUN · API docs
