Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
IBRD only: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 32/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.39 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.36, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.44) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±4.6459 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
IBRD only: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed26.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.4 | 29.32 | 23.88 | 25.56 – 27.24 |
| 2028 | 26.94 | 31.99 | 22.56 | 24.93 – 28.96 |
| 2030 | 27.48 | 34 | 21.83 | 24.35 – 30.61 |
| 2035 | 28.83 | 38.05 | 20.83 | 22.85 – 34.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44.4T | 48.5T | 41T | 43.1T – 45.8T |
| 2028 | 48.1T | 55.1T | 42T | 44.5T – 51.6T |
| 2030 | 51.7T | 60.7T | 43.9T | 45.8T – 57.6T |
| 2035 | 60.7T | 73.5T | 49.7T | 48.1T – 73.3T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.39 | 12 | -3.28 | 2.84 – 5.93 |
| 2028 | 4.6 | 12 | -8.69 | 1.82 – 7.38 |
| 2030 | 4.81 | 12 | -10 | 1.13 – 8.49 |
| 2035 | 5.34 | 12 | -10 | -0.18 – 10.86 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.8k | 9.7k | 8.1k | 8.6k – 9.1k |
| 2028 | 9.5k | 10.9k | 8.2k | 8.8k – 10.2k |
| 2030 | 10.1k | 12k | 8.5k | 9k – 11.3k |
| 2035 | 11.8k | 14.4k | 9.5k | 9.3k – 14.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.66 | 27.16 | 22.16 | 23.88 – 25.44 |
| 2028 | 24.93 | 29.26 | 20.6 | 23.07 – 26.79 |
| 2030 | 25.2 | 30.79 | 19.61 | 22.33 – 28.07 |
| 2035 | 25.87 | 33.77 | 17.97 | 20.5 – 31.24 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.99 | 9.9 | -2.34 | 2.62 – 5.36 |
| 2028 | 4.18 | 14.41 | -5 | 1.71 – 6.65 |
| 2030 | 4.37 | 17.58 | -5 | 1.09 – 7.65 |
| 2035 | 4.84 | 23.53 | -5 | -0.07 – 9.76 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.06(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 30.87 | 32.49 | 29.47 | 29.91 – 31.83 |
| 2027 | 30.4 | 32.2 | 28.84 | 28.15 – 32.65 |
| 2029 | 29.93 | 32.26 | 27.92 | 26.53 – 33.33 |
| 2034 | 28.76 | 32.05 | 25.91 | 22.79 – 34.72 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5bn | 5.2bn | 4.8bn | 4.8bn – 5.2bn |
| 2028 | 5bn | 5.3bn | 4.8bn | 4.7bn – 5.4bn |
| 2030 | 5.1bn | 5.3bn | 4.8bn | 4.5bn – 5.6bn |
| 2035 | 5.1bn | 5.4bn | 4.9bn | 4.1bn – 6.2bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.89 | 7.7 | 1.04 | 3.36 – 4.43 |
| 2028 | 4.76 | 11.35 | -0.19 | 3.7 – 5.81 |
| 2030 | 5.62 | 14.13 | -0.76 | 4.11 – 7.13 |
| 2035 | 7.78 | 15 | -1.25 | 5.03 – 10.53 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.19 | 12.85 | 7.53 | 9.62 – 10.76 |
| 2028 | 10.79 | 15.4 | 6.18 | 9.57 – 12.01 |
| 2030 | 11.08 | 17.04 | 5.13 | 9.28 – 12.88 |
| 2035 | 11.32 | 19.74 | 2.9 | 8.22 – 14.42 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.57 | 5.12 | 4.02 | 4.41 – 4.73 |
| 2028 | 3.76 | 4.72 | 2.8 | 3.43 – 4.09 |
| 2030 | 2.95 | 4.19 | 1.71 | 2.52 – 3.37 |
| 2035 | 0.92 | 2.67 | 0 | 0.49 – 1.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-03 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/IBD · API docs
