Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
IDA & IBRD total: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 27/100); the economy is in slowdown; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.47 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.46, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.46) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±0.3213 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
IDA & IBRD total: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed25.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.16 | 29.04 | 23.67 | 25.34 – 26.99 |
| 2028 | 26.78 | 31.76 | 22.47 | 24.79 – 28.78 |
| 2030 | 27.4 | 33.83 | 21.83 | 24.29 – 30.51 |
| 2035 | 28.94 | 38.03 | 21.07 | 22.94 – 34.95 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.7T | 51.9T | 44T | 46.2T – 49.2T |
| 2028 | 51.4T | 58.7T | 45.1T | 47.6T – 55.2T |
| 2030 | 55.1T | 64.6T | 46.9T | 48.9T – 61.4T |
| 2035 | 64.5T | 77.8T | 52.9T | 51.1T – 77.8T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.47 | 12 | -2.89 | 2.98 – 5.96 |
| 2028 | 4.79 | 12 | -7.96 | 2.11 – 7.47 |
| 2030 | 5.11 | 12 | -10 | 1.54 – 8.68 |
| 2035 | 5.91 | 12 | -10 | 0.49 – 11.33 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.8k | 7.4k | 6.2k | 6.6k – 7k |
| 2028 | 7.2k | 8.3k | 6.3k | 6.7k – 7.7k |
| 2030 | 7.6k | 9k | 6.4k | 6.8k – 8.5k |
| 2035 | 8.7k | 10.7k | 7k | 6.9k – 10.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.99 | 27.58 | 22.41 | 24.2 – 25.79 |
| 2028 | 25.34 | 29.82 | 20.86 | 23.44 – 27.24 |
| 2030 | 25.68 | 31.46 | 19.9 | 22.74 – 28.62 |
| 2035 | 26.54 | 34.72 | 18.36 | 21.04 – 32.05 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.72 | 9.48 | -2.44 | 2.39 – 5.06 |
| 2028 | 3.56 | 13.53 | -5 | 1.18 – 5.94 |
| 2030 | 3.4 | 16.26 | -5 | 0.27 – 6.52 |
| 2035 | 2.99 | 21.19 | -5 | -1.52 – 7.5 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.97(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 30.83 | 32.45 | 29.43 | 29.88 – 31.79 |
| 2027 | 30.49 | 32.2 | 29.01 | 28.24 – 32.75 |
| 2029 | 30.15 | 32.36 | 28.23 | 26.73 – 33.57 |
| 2034 | 29.3 | 32.42 | 26.59 | 23.22 – 35.37 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7bn | 7.3bn | 6.7bn | 6.8bn – 7.2bn |
| 2028 | 7.1bn | 7.4bn | 6.7bn | 6.5bn – 7.6bn |
| 2030 | 7.1bn | 7.5bn | 6.8bn | 6.3bn – 7.9bn |
| 2035 | 7.3bn | 7.7bn | 7bn | 5.8bn – 8.8bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.74 | 8.33 | 0.3 | 3.11 – 4.37 |
| 2028 | 4.72 | 12.66 | -1.24 | 3.5 – 5.94 |
| 2030 | 5.7 | 15 | -2 | 3.96 – 7.43 |
| 2035 | 8.14 | 15 | -2.74 | 5.02 – 11.25 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.08 | 12.73 | 7.44 | 9.52 – 10.65 |
| 2028 | 10.65 | 15.24 | 6.07 | 9.44 – 11.87 |
| 2030 | 10.94 | 16.85 | 5.02 | 9.15 – 12.72 |
| 2035 | 11.16 | 19.53 | 2.79 | 8.09 – 14.23 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.47 | 5 | 3.94 | 4.32 – 4.62 |
| 2028 | 3.72 | 4.64 | 2.81 | 3.4 – 4.04 |
| 2030 | 2.97 | 4.15 | 1.79 | 2.55 – 3.39 |
| 2035 | 1.1 | 2.77 | 0 | 0.67 – 1.53 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/IBT · API docs
