Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
IDA total: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 25/100); the economy is in expansion; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.49 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.50, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.50) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±4.5727 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
IDA total: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed23.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.45 | 27.52 | 21.79 | 23.62 – 25.28 |
| 2028 | 26.02 | 31.34 | 21.41 | 24.01 – 28.03 |
| 2030 | 27.59 | 34.45 | 21.64 | 24.4 – 30.78 |
| 2035 | 31.51 | 41.22 | 23.09 | 24.97 – 38.04 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2T | 3.6T | 2.9T | 3.1T – 3.3T |
| 2028 | 3.3T | 4T | 2.8T | 3.1T – 3.6T |
| 2030 | 3.4T | 4.3T | 2.7T | 3.1T – 3.8T |
| 2035 | 3.7T | 4.9T | 2.7T | 2.9T – 4.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.49 | 10.54 | 1.11 | 4.56 – 6.42 |
| 2028 | 7.2 | 12 | -0.39 | 5.39 – 9 |
| 2030 | 8.91 | 12 | -0.89 | 6.31 – 11.5 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -1.85 | 7.42 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6k | 1.8k | 1.4k | 1.6k – 1.6k |
| 2028 | 1.6k | 1.9k | 1.3k | 1.5k – 1.7k |
| 2030 | 1.6k | 2k | 1.2k | 1.4k – 1.8k |
| 2035 | 1.6k | 2.2k | 1k | 1.2k – 1.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.62 | 33.79 | 25.45 | 28.51 – 30.73 |
| 2028 | 31.04 | 38.26 | 23.82 | 28.45 – 33.64 |
| 2030 | 32.46 | 41.79 | 23.14 | 28.44 – 36.49 |
| 2035 | 36.01 | 49.2 | 22.83 | 28.23 – 43.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.45 | 8.73 | -2.21 | 2.22 – 4.67 |
| 2028 | 2.71 | 11.86 | -5 | 0.55 – 4.87 |
| 2030 | 1.97 | 13.79 | -5 | -0.8 – 4.75 |
| 2035 | 0.13 | 16.84 | -5 | -3.73 – 4 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.47 | 30.11 | 25.18 | 26.62 – 28.32 |
| 2028 | 28.42 | 32.99 | 24.46 | 26.32 – 30.52 |
| 2030 | 29.37 | 35.28 | 24.26 | 26.04 – 32.71 |
| 2035 | 31.76 | 40.1 | 24.53 | 25.17 – 38.35 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2bn | 2.1bn | 1.9bn | 1.9bn – 2bn |
| 2028 | 2bn | 2.1bn | 1.9bn | 1.9bn – 2.2bn |
| 2030 | 2.1bn | 2.2bn | 2bn | 1.8bn – 2.3bn |
| 2035 | 2.2bn | 2.3bn | 2.1bn | 1.7bn – 2.6bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.81 | 8.17 | -1.22 | 2.09 – 3.52 |
| 2028 | 3.97 | 13.27 | -3 | 2.62 – 5.32 |
| 2030 | 5.13 | 15 | -3.87 | 3.22 – 7.04 |
| 2035 | 8.04 | 15 | -4.69 | 4.63 – 11.45 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.01 | 8.5 | 3.52 | 5.54 – 6.49 |
| 2028 | 6.27 | 10.58 | 1.96 | 5.31 – 7.23 |
| 2030 | 6.4 | 11.96 | 0.83 | 5.03 – 7.76 |
| 2035 | 6.5 | 14.37 | 0 | 4.25 – 8.74 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.16 | 4.8 | 3.52 | 4 – 4.33 |
| 2028 | 3.63 | 4.73 | 2.52 | 3.28 – 3.97 |
| 2030 | 3.09 | 4.51 | 1.66 | 2.62 – 3.55 |
| 2035 | 1.75 | 3.76 | 0 | 1.16 – 2.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/IDA · API docs
