Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
IDA blend: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 17/100); the economy is in expansion; 13 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.4 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.66, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.60) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±0.5722 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
IDA blend: forward projections across 9 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed1.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2T | 1.5T | 953.4bn | 1.2T – 1.3T |
| 2028 | 1.1T | 1.7T | 665.6bn | 1T – 1.3T |
| 2030 | 1.1T | 1.8T | 440.1bn | 883.4bn – 1.2T |
| 2035 | 832.2bn | 1.8T | 0 | 580.3bn – 1.1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4 | 12 | -0.42 | 4.2 – 6.61 |
| 2028 | 7.25 | 12 | -2.83 | 4.96 – 9.53 |
| 2030 | 9.09 | 12 | -3.92 | 5.86 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -6.4 | 6.54 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7k | 2.2k | 1.3k | 1.7k – 1.8k |
| 2028 | 1.5k | 2.4k | 811.58 | 1.4k – 1.7k |
| 2030 | 1.3k | 2.4k | 395.72 | 1.1k – 1.6k |
| 2035 | 843.05 | 2.4k | 0 | 523.41 – 1.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.43 | 31.52 | 21.34 | 25.23 – 27.63 |
| 2028 | 28.81 | 37.63 | 19.99 | 26.08 – 31.54 |
| 2030 | 31.19 | 42.58 | 19.8 | 26.95 – 35.43 |
| 2035 | 37.15 | 53.25 | 21.04 | 28.74 – 45.55 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.11 | 6.02 | -2.08 | 1.21 – 3.01 |
| 2028 | 0.64 | 7.41 | -5 | -0.91 – 2.19 |
| 2030 | -0.83 | 7.92 | -5 | -2.85 – 1.19 |
| 2035 | -4.51 | 7.87 | -5 | -5 – -1.04 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed689.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 686.4m | 718.9m | 656.3m | 665.2m – 707.7m |
| 2028 | 700.6m | 733.7m | 669.8m | 648.7m – 752.4m |
| 2030 | 714.7m | 748.4m | 683.3m | 633.5m – 795.8m |
| 2035 | 749.9m | 785.4m | 717m | 594.4m – 905.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.25 | 8.39 | -2.35 | 1.45 – 3.05 |
| 2028 | 3.43 | 14.06 | -4.55 | 1.93 – 4.92 |
| 2030 | 4.6 | 15 | -5.69 | 2.52 – 6.69 |
| 2035 | 7.55 | 15 | -7.01 | 3.91 – 11.18 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.3 | 9.06 | 3.54 | 5.78 – 6.82 |
| 2028 | 6.86 | 11.63 | 2.08 | 5.8 – 7.92 |
| 2030 | 7.13 | 13.3 | 0.97 | 5.62 – 8.65 |
| 2035 | 7.35 | 16.07 | 0 | 4.84 – 9.86 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.1 | 4.94 | 3.26 | 3.91 – 4.3 |
| 2028 | 3.46 | 4.91 | 2 | 3.07 – 3.84 |
| 2030 | 2.81 | 4.68 | 0.93 | 2.3 – 3.32 |
| 2035 | 1.19 | 3.84 | 0 | 0.59 – 1.79 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/IDB · API docs
