Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Indonesia: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 19/100); the economy is in expansion; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.48 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.62, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.58) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-03-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+5% skill vs naive; realized ±0.4755 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Indonesia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.28 | 2.22 | -1.67 | -0.14 – 0.69 |
| 2028 | 1.03 | 4.4 | -2.34 | 0.29 – 1.77 |
| 2030 | 1.79 | 6.14 | -2.56 | 0.76 – 2.82 |
| 2035 | 3.67 | 9.83 | -2.48 | 1.83 – 5.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.42 | 28.5 | 19.02 | 22.32 – 24.52 |
| 2028 | 24.56 | 33.36 | 16.94 | 22.13 – 27 |
| 2030 | 25.7 | 37.06 | 15.86 | 22.03 – 29.38 |
| 2035 | 28.56 | 44.62 | 14.65 | 21.7 – 35.43 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5T | 1.6T | 1.4T | 1.4T – 1.5T |
| 2028 | 1.6T | 1.8T | 1.4T | 1.5T – 1.7T |
| 2030 | 1.7T | 2T | 1.4T | 1.5T – 1.9T |
| 2035 | 1.9T | 2.3T | 1.6T | 1.5T – 2.3T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.48 | 10.23 | 1.35 | 4.6 – 6.36 |
| 2028 | 6.37 | 12 | -0.76 | 4.69 – 8.05 |
| 2030 | 7.27 | 12 | -1.95 | 4.92 – 9.62 |
| 2035 | 9.51 | 12 | -3.52 | 5.48 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.2k | 5.6k | 4.8k | 5k – 5.3k |
| 2028 | 5.4k | 6.3k | 4.7k | 5k – 5.8k |
| 2030 | 5.7k | 6.8k | 4.8k | 5.1k – 6.4k |
| 2035 | 6.4k | 7.9k | 5.1k | 5.1k – 7.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.63 | 47.75 | 36.72 | 41.16 – 44.1 |
| 2028 | 45.88 | 54.75 | 35.65 | 42.32 – 49.45 |
| 2030 | 49.14 | 60.59 | 35.92 | 43.44 – 54.83 |
| 2035 | 57.27 | 73.47 | 38.59 | 45.39 – 69.15 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.67 | 25.21 | 16.14 | 19.65 – 21.7 |
| 2028 | 20.93 | 28.79 | 13.08 | 18.72 – 23.14 |
| 2030 | 21.19 | 31.33 | 11.05 | 17.94 – 24.44 |
| 2035 | 21.83 | 36.18 | 7.49 | 16.15 – 27.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.93 | 4.77 | -1.1 | 1.28 – 2.59 |
| 2028 | 1.56 | 6.46 | -3.7 | 0.4 – 2.72 |
| 2030 | 1.18 | 7.51 | -5 | -0.31 – 2.68 |
| 2035 | 0.24 | 9.2 | -5 | -1.9 – 2.39 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.56 | 30.06 | 27.26 | 27.67 – 29.44 |
| 2028 | 27.92 | 30.11 | 26.01 | 25.85 – 29.98 |
| 2030 | 27.27 | 30.11 | 24.82 | 24.18 – 30.37 |
| 2035 | 25.67 | 29.67 | 22.2 | 20.34 – 30.99 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed285.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 285.1m | 298.6m | 272.6m | 276.3m – 293.9m |
| 2028 | 287.6m | 301.2m | 274.9m | 266.3m – 308.8m |
| 2030 | 290m | 303.7m | 277.3m | 257.1m – 323m |
| 2035 | 296.2m | 310.2m | 283.2m | 234.7m – 357.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.17 | 10.89 | -0.88 | 3.26 – 5.07 |
| 2028 | 5.32 | 15 | -3.42 | 3.61 – 7.03 |
| 2030 | 6.47 | 15 | -4.81 | 4.07 – 8.87 |
| 2035 | 9.35 | 15 | -6.6 | 5.19 – 13.5 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed144.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 148.2bn | 160.8bn | 135.5bn | 143.6bn – 152.8bn |
| 2028 | 156.6bn | 178.4bn | 134.7bn | 145bn – 168.1bn |
| 2030 | 164.9bn | 193.2bn | 136.7bn | 146.2bn – 183.7bn |
| 2035 | 185.9bn | 225.9bn | 145.9bn | 147.3bn – 224.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.77 | 8.05 | 3.48 | 5.32 – 6.21 |
| 2028 | 6.07 | 10.02 | 2.11 | 5.17 – 6.96 |
| 2030 | 6.22 | 11.32 | 1.11 | 4.94 – 7.5 |
| 2035 | 6.34 | 13.56 | 0 | 4.22 – 8.45 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed156.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 161.6bn | 173.2bn | 150bn | 156.6bn – 166.6bn |
| 2028 | 173.5bn | 193.6bn | 153.4bn | 160.7bn – 186.4bn |
| 2030 | 185.5bn | 211.4bn | 159.5bn | 164.4bn – 206.6bn |
| 2035 | 215.4bn | 252.1bn | 178.7bn | 170.7bn – 260.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.04 | 3.37 | 2.72 | 2.94 – 3.14 |
| 2028 | 2.65 | 3.21 | 2.09 | 2.44 – 2.87 |
| 2030 | 2.26 | 2.99 | 1.54 | 1.97 – 2.55 |
| 2035 | 1.29 | 2.31 | 0.26 | 0.92 – 1.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/IDN · API docs
