Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Indonesia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 35/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 20 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.05 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.42) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-04-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+5% skill vs naive; realized ±3.0822 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Indonesia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.99 | 1.18 | -3.17 | -1.45 – -0.53 |
| 2029 | -0.78 | 2.98 | -4.55 | -1.6 – 0.03 |
| 2031 | -0.57 | 4.29 | -5.43 | -1.64 – 0.5 |
| 2036 | -0.04 | 6.84 | -6.92 | -1.6 – 1.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.42 | 28.5 | 19.02 | 22.32 – 24.52 |
| 2028 | 24.56 | 33.36 | 16.94 | 22.13 – 27 |
| 2030 | 25.7 | 37.06 | 15.86 | 22.03 – 29.38 |
| 2035 | 28.56 | 44.62 | 14.65 | 21.7 – 35.43 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.6T | 1.7T | 1.5T | 1.5T – 1.6T |
| 2029 | 1.7T | 1.9T | 1.5T | 1.6T – 1.8T |
| 2031 | 1.8T | 2.1T | 1.6T | 1.6T – 2T |
| 2036 | 2.1T | 2.5T | 1.8T | 1.7T – 2.6T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.05 | 6.48 | 3.81 | 4.73 – 5.37 |
| 2029 | 5.15 | 7.63 | 3.01 | 4.49 – 5.81 |
| 2031 | 5.26 | 8.46 | 2.49 | 4.31 – 6.21 |
| 2036 | 5.53 | 10.05 | 1.61 | 3.89 – 7.17 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.5k | 6k | 5.1k | 5.3k – 5.7k |
| 2029 | 5.8k | 6.7k | 5.1k | 5.4k – 6.3k |
| 2031 | 6.2k | 7.3k | 5.3k | 5.5k – 6.9k |
| 2036 | 7.1k | 8.6k | 5.8k | 5.6k – 8.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 42.89 | 48.04 | 36.95 | 41.41 – 44.37 |
| 2029 | 45.68 | 54.6 | 35.39 | 42.11 – 49.24 |
| 2031 | 48.46 | 59.98 | 35.18 | 42.82 – 54.11 |
| 2036 | 55.43 | 71.71 | 36.64 | 43.93 – 66.92 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.67 | 25.21 | 16.14 | 19.65 – 21.7 |
| 2028 | 20.93 | 28.79 | 13.08 | 18.72 – 23.14 |
| 2030 | 21.19 | 31.33 | 11.05 | 17.94 – 24.44 |
| 2035 | 21.83 | 36.18 | 7.49 | 16.15 – 27.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.5 | 6.42 | 0.37 | 2.79 – 4.2 |
| 2029 | 5.02 | 10.08 | -0.41 | 3.66 – 6.38 |
| 2031 | 6.54 | 13.07 | -0.46 | 4.57 – 8.51 |
| 2036 | 10.34 | 19.58 | 0.44 | 6.64 – 14.05 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.56 | 30.06 | 27.26 | 27.67 – 29.44 |
| 2028 | 27.92 | 30.11 | 26.01 | 25.85 – 29.98 |
| 2030 | 27.27 | 30.11 | 24.82 | 24.18 – 30.37 |
| 2035 | 25.67 | 29.67 | 22.2 | 20.34 – 30.99 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed285.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 286.5m | 300.1m | 273.9m | 277.6m – 295.4m |
| 2029 | 288.1m | 301.8m | 275.5m | 266.8m – 309.5m |
| 2031 | 289.8m | 303.5m | 277.1m | 256.9m – 322.7m |
| 2036 | 293.8m | 307.7m | 280.9m | 232.9m – 354.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.17 | 10.89 | -0.88 | 3.26 – 5.07 |
| 2028 | 5.32 | 15 | -3.42 | 3.61 – 7.03 |
| 2030 | 6.47 | 15 | -4.81 | 4.07 – 8.87 |
| 2035 | 9.35 | 15 | -6.6 | 5.19 – 13.5 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed144.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 148.2bn | 160.8bn | 135.5bn | 143.6bn – 152.8bn |
| 2028 | 156.6bn | 178.4bn | 134.7bn | 145bn – 168.1bn |
| 2030 | 164.9bn | 193.2bn | 136.7bn | 146.2bn – 183.7bn |
| 2035 | 185.9bn | 225.9bn | 145.9bn | 147.3bn – 224.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.77 | 8.05 | 3.48 | 5.32 – 6.21 |
| 2028 | 6.07 | 10.02 | 2.11 | 5.17 – 6.96 |
| 2030 | 6.22 | 11.32 | 1.11 | 4.94 – 7.5 |
| 2035 | 6.34 | 13.56 | 0 | 4.22 – 8.45 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed156.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 161.6bn | 173.2bn | 150bn | 156.6bn – 166.6bn |
| 2028 | 173.5bn | 193.6bn | 153.4bn | 160.7bn – 186.4bn |
| 2030 | 185.5bn | 211.4bn | 159.5bn | 164.4bn – 206.6bn |
| 2035 | 215.4bn | 252.1bn | 178.7bn | 170.7bn – 260.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.03 | 6.47 | 3.59 | 4.73 – 5.33 |
| 2029 | 5.3 | 7.79 | 2.81 | 4.67 – 5.94 |
| 2031 | 5.57 | 8.79 | 2.35 | 4.63 – 6.51 |
| 2036 | 6.24 | 10.79 | 1.69 | 4.54 – 7.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/IDN · API docs
