Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
IDA only: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 26/100); the economy is in expansion; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.57 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.48, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.50) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-15% skill vs naive; realized ±0.2091 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
IDA only: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed22.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.1 | 26.21 | 20.4 | 22.28 – 23.91 |
| 2028 | 23.61 | 28.99 | 18.94 | 21.7 – 25.51 |
| 2030 | 24.11 | 31.06 | 18.09 | 21.19 – 27.04 |
| 2035 | 25.38 | 35.21 | 16.87 | 19.92 – 30.85 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.9T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2T | 2.1T | 1.9T | 1.9T – 2.1T |
| 2028 | 2.2T | 2.4T | 2T | 2T – 2.4T |
| 2030 | 2.4T | 2.6T | 2.2T | 2.1T – 2.7T |
| 2035 | 2.9T | 3.2T | 2.6T | 2.3T – 3.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.57 | 9.03 | 2.57 | 4.91 – 6.24 |
| 2028 | 7.14 | 12 | 1.95 | 5.8 – 8.48 |
| 2030 | 8.71 | 12 | 2.01 | 6.73 – 10.7 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | 2.52 | 8.26 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5k | 1.6k | 1.4k | 1.5k – 1.6k |
| 2028 | 1.6k | 1.8k | 1.5k | 1.5k – 1.7k |
| 2030 | 1.7k | 1.9k | 1.6k | 1.5k – 1.9k |
| 2035 | 2k | 2.2k | 1.7k | 1.6k – 2.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.28 | 35.69 | 26.88 | 30.11 – 32.46 |
| 2028 | 31.41 | 39.04 | 23.79 | 28.74 – 34.09 |
| 2030 | 31.55 | 41.39 | 21.7 | 27.52 – 35.58 |
| 2035 | 31.88 | 45.8 | 17.95 | 24.64 – 39.11 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.55 | 9.43 | -2.75 | 2.19 – 4.91 |
| 2028 | 2.56 | 12.75 | -5 | 0.18 – 4.94 |
| 2030 | 1.57 | 14.72 | -5 | -1.47 – 4.61 |
| 2035 | -0.9 | 17.7 | -5 | -5 – 3.39 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.97 | 25.83 | 22.37 | 23.23 – 24.72 |
| 2028 | 22.31 | 25.52 | 19.53 | 20.66 – 23.96 |
| 2030 | 20.64 | 24.78 | 17.05 | 18.3 – 22.99 |
| 2035 | 16.48 | 22.33 | 11.4 | 13 – 19.95 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.2bn | 1.2bn – 1.3bn |
| 2028 | 1.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn – 1.4bn |
| 2030 | 1.4bn | 1.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn – 1.5bn |
| 2035 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.4bn | 1.1bn – 1.7bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.91 | 7.84 | -0.79 | 2.25 – 3.57 |
| 2028 | 4.01 | 12.55 | -2.4 | 2.75 – 5.27 |
| 2030 | 5.1 | 15 | -3.17 | 3.32 – 6.89 |
| 2035 | 7.85 | 15 | -3.86 | 4.64 – 11.05 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.57(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.63 | 8.25 | 3.01 | 5.14 – 6.12 |
| 2027 | 5.7 | 10.24 | 1.15 | 4.73 – 6.66 |
| 2029 | 5.73 | 11.59 | 0 | 4.37 – 7.08 |
| 2034 | 5.76 | 14.05 | 0 | 3.57 – 7.95 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.19 | 4.73 | 3.66 | 4.04 – 4.34 |
| 2028 | 3.72 | 4.65 | 2.79 | 3.4 – 4.04 |
| 2030 | 3.25 | 4.45 | 2.04 | 2.8 – 3.69 |
| 2035 | 2.06 | 3.76 | 0.36 | 1.47 – 2.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/IDX · API docs
