Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Isle of Man: macro conditions look stressed (pressure 76/100); the economy is in recovery; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 5 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -4.06 for 2024.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as stressed (sentiment -0.52, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2024: stressed (projected sentiment -0.90) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Recovery
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-3% skill vs naive; realized ±6.649 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
Isle of Man: forward projections across 4 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed7.6bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7.7bn | 9bn | 6.6bn | 7.5bn – 8bn |
| 2026 | 8.1bn | 10.2bn | 6.2bn | 7.4bn – 8.7bn |
| 2028 | 8.4bn | 11.2bn | 6bn | 7.4bn – 9.4bn |
| 2033 | 9.2bn | 13.2bn | 5.8bn | 7.3bn – 11.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.04(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | -4.06 | 12 | -10 | -6.89 – -1.23 |
| 2026 | -8.18 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -2.99 |
| 2028 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -3.02 |
| 2033 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 0.35 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90k(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 91.7k | 106.5k | 78.9k | 88.5k – 95k |
| 2026 | 95.6k | 121.2k | 73.3k | 87.9k – 103.2k |
| 2028 | 99.4k | 132.5k | 70.7k | 87.5k – 111.3k |
| 2033 | 109k | 155.8k | 68.4k | 86k – 132k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed84.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 84.1k | 88.1k | 80.4k | 81.5k – 86.7k |
| 2028 | 84.1k | 88k | 80.4k | 77.8k – 90.3k |
| 2030 | 84k | 88k | 80.3k | 74.5k – 93.6k |
| 2035 | 83.9k | 87.9k | 80.2k | 66.5k – 101.3k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/IMN · API docs
