Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
India: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 30/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 8.2 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.40, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.44) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2025-11-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-16% skill vs naive; realized ±1.6988 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
India: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.84 | 1.75 | -3.43 | -1.39 – -0.3 |
| 2028 | -0.72 | 3.77 | -5.21 | -1.69 – 0.24 |
| 2030 | -0.6 | 5.19 | -6.4 | -1.86 – 0.66 |
| 2035 | -0.3 | 7.89 | -8.5 | -2.14 – 1.53 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.82 | 26.2 | 19.89 | 21.97 – 23.67 |
| 2028 | 23.94 | 29.8 | 18.87 | 21.96 – 25.93 |
| 2030 | 25.06 | 32.62 | 18.51 | 21.98 – 28.15 |
| 2035 | 27.86 | 38.55 | 18.59 | 21.87 – 33.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.1T | 4.5T | 3.8T | 4T – 4.3T |
| 2028 | 4.6T | 5.2T | 4T | 4.2T – 4.9T |
| 2030 | 5T | 5.9T | 4.3T | 4.4T – 5.6T |
| 2035 | 6.1T | 7.3T | 5T | 4.8T – 7.4T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.2 | 12 | -3.55 | 5.81 – 10.59 |
| 2028 | 9.69 | 12 | -10 | 5.31 – 12 |
| 2030 | 11.18 | 12 | -10 | 5.24 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 2.94 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.8k | 3.1k | 2.6k | 2.7k – 2.9k |
| 2028 | 3.1k | 3.5k | 2.7k | 2.8k – 3.3k |
| 2030 | 3.3k | 3.9k | 2.8k | 2.9k – 3.7k |
| 2035 | 4k | 4.8k | 3.2k | 3.2k – 4.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed83.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 85.99 | 95.05 | 75.53 | 83.22 – 88.76 |
| 2028 | 89.77 | 105.47 | 71.66 | 83.05 – 96.5 |
| 2030 | 93.55 | 113.82 | 70.17 | 82.93 – 104.18 |
| 2035 | 103.01 | 131.67 | 69.94 | 81.64 – 124.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.39 | 29.6 | 19.19 | 23.21 – 25.58 |
| 2028 | 25.17 | 34.18 | 16.15 | 22.58 – 27.76 |
| 2030 | 25.94 | 37.58 | 14.31 | 22.09 – 29.8 |
| 2035 | 27.88 | 44.34 | 11.43 | 20.9 – 34.86 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.46 | 4.22 | -1.5 | 0.82 – 2.09 |
| 2028 | -2.12 | 2.66 | -5 | -3.28 – -0.96 |
| 2030 | -5 | 1.17 | -5 | -5 – -3.23 |
| 2035 | -5 | 3.72 | -5 | -5 – -2.27 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.72 | 34.76 | 29.07 | 30.73 – 32.7 |
| 2028 | 31.97 | 37.25 | 27.4 | 29.61 – 34.34 |
| 2030 | 32.23 | 39.05 | 26.33 | 28.57 – 35.89 |
| 2035 | 32.88 | 42.52 | 24.53 | 26.06 – 39.7 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5bn | 1.5bn | 1.4bn | 1.4bn – 1.5bn |
| 2028 | 1.5bn | 1.5bn | 1.4bn | 1.4bn – 1.6bn |
| 2030 | 1.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.4bn | 1.3bn – 1.7bn |
| 2035 | 1.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.5bn | 1.2bn – 1.8bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.91 | 15 | -0.71 | 5.53 – 8.29 |
| 2028 | 9.17 | 15 | -4.02 | 6.53 – 11.81 |
| 2030 | 11.43 | 15 | -5.59 | 7.68 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -9.08 | 8.59 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed576.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 592.9bn | 701.3bn | 484.5bn | 566.8bn – 619bn |
| 2028 | 632.2bn | 819.9bn | 444.4bn | 573.1bn – 691.3bn |
| 2030 | 671.4bn | 913.8bn | 429bn | 580.6bn – 762.2bn |
| 2035 | 769.5bn | 1.1T | 426.8bn | 593.9bn – 945.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.06 | 12.4 | 3.72 | 7.27 – 8.85 |
| 2028 | 8.28 | 15.79 | 0.77 | 6.73 – 9.83 |
| 2030 | 8.39 | 18.08 | 0 | 6.23 – 10.54 |
| 2035 | 8.47 | 22.19 | 0 | 5.02 – 11.93 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed700.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 732.1bn | 841.5bn | 622.7bn | 703.7bn – 760.6bn |
| 2028 | 810.7bn | 1T | 621.3bn | 742.8bn – 878.7bn |
| 2030 | 889.4bn | 1.1T | 644.8bn | 780.8bn – 998bn |
| 2035 | 1.1T | 1.4T | 740bn | 859.3bn – 1.3T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.49 | 4.85 | 2.14 | 3.23 – 3.75 |
| 2028 | 2.04 | 4.38 | 0 | 1.58 – 2.49 |
| 2030 | 0.58 | 3.61 | 0 | 0.04 – 1.12 |
| 2035 | 0 | 4.28 | 0 | 0 – 0.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/IND · API docs
