Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
India: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 43/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 20 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.2 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.14, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.18) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-03-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-16% skill vs naive; realized ±5.5813 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
India: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.16 | 0.39 | -4.7 | -2.71 – -1.6 |
| 2029 | -2.47 | 1.94 | -6.88 | -3.49 – -1.45 |
| 2031 | -2.79 | 2.91 | -8.48 | -4.17 – -1.4 |
| 2036 | -3.57 | 4.48 | -11.62 | -5.79 – -1.36 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.82 | 26.2 | 19.89 | 21.97 – 23.67 |
| 2028 | 23.94 | 29.8 | 18.87 | 21.96 – 25.93 |
| 2030 | 25.06 | 32.62 | 18.51 | 21.98 – 28.15 |
| 2035 | 27.86 | 38.55 | 18.59 | 21.87 – 33.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.3T | 4.7T | 4T | 4.2T – 4.5T |
| 2029 | 4.7T | 5.4T | 4.2T | 4.4T – 5.1T |
| 2031 | 5.2T | 6T | 4.4T | 4.6T – 5.8T |
| 2036 | 6.2T | 7.5T | 5.2T | 4.9T – 7.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.2 | 8.04 | 4.61 | 5.8 – 6.61 |
| 2029 | 5.48 | 8.66 | 2.72 | 4.69 – 6.27 |
| 2031 | 4.76 | 8.86 | 1.2 | 3.69 – 5.82 |
| 2036 | 2.95 | 8.75 | -2.08 | 1.51 – 4.39 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.9k | 3.2k | 2.7k | 2.8k – 3k |
| 2029 | 3.2k | 3.6k | 2.8k | 2.9k – 3.4k |
| 2031 | 3.4k | 4k | 2.9k | 3k – 3.8k |
| 2036 | 4k | 4.9k | 3.3k | 3.2k – 4.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed83.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 84.75 | 93.91 | 74.19 | 81.99 – 87.51 |
| 2029 | 87.45 | 103.31 | 69.15 | 80.81 – 94.09 |
| 2031 | 90.15 | 110.63 | 66.53 | 79.79 – 100.51 |
| 2036 | 96.9 | 125.86 | 63.49 | 76.8 – 117 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.39 | 29.6 | 19.19 | 23.21 – 25.58 |
| 2028 | 25.17 | 34.18 | 16.15 | 22.58 – 27.76 |
| 2030 | 25.94 | 37.58 | 14.31 | 22.09 – 29.8 |
| 2035 | 27.88 | 44.34 | 11.43 | 20.9 – 34.86 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.87 | 9.49 | 2 | 4.98 – 6.77 |
| 2029 | 9.1 | 15.35 | 2.39 | 7.27 – 10.92 |
| 2031 | 12.32 | 20.39 | 3.66 | 9.54 – 15.09 |
| 2036 | 20.37 | 31.79 | 8.13 | 14.58 – 26.16 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.72 | 34.76 | 29.07 | 30.73 – 32.7 |
| 2028 | 31.97 | 37.25 | 27.4 | 29.61 – 34.34 |
| 2030 | 32.23 | 39.05 | 26.33 | 28.57 – 35.89 |
| 2035 | 32.88 | 42.52 | 24.53 | 26.06 – 39.7 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.5bn | 1.5bn | 1.4bn | 1.4bn – 1.5bn |
| 2029 | 1.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.4bn | 1.4bn – 1.6bn |
| 2031 | 1.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.4bn | 1.3bn – 1.7bn |
| 2036 | 1.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.5bn | 1.2bn – 1.9bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.91 | 15 | -0.71 | 5.53 – 8.29 |
| 2028 | 9.17 | 15 | -4.02 | 6.53 – 11.81 |
| 2030 | 11.43 | 15 | -5.59 | 7.68 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -9.08 | 8.59 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed576.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 592.9bn | 701.3bn | 484.5bn | 566.8bn – 619bn |
| 2028 | 632.2bn | 819.9bn | 444.4bn | 573.1bn – 691.3bn |
| 2030 | 671.4bn | 913.8bn | 429bn | 580.6bn – 762.2bn |
| 2035 | 769.5bn | 1.1T | 426.8bn | 593.9bn – 945.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.06 | 12.4 | 3.72 | 7.27 – 8.85 |
| 2028 | 8.28 | 15.79 | 0.77 | 6.73 – 9.83 |
| 2030 | 8.39 | 18.08 | 0 | 6.23 – 10.54 |
| 2035 | 8.47 | 22.19 | 0 | 5.02 – 11.93 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed700.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 732.1bn | 841.5bn | 622.7bn | 703.7bn – 760.6bn |
| 2028 | 810.7bn | 1T | 621.3bn | 742.8bn – 878.7bn |
| 2030 | 889.4bn | 1.1T | 644.8bn | 780.8bn – 998bn |
| 2035 | 1.1T | 1.4T | 740bn | 859.3bn – 1.3T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.64 | 6.12 | 3.15 | 4.34 – 4.94 |
| 2029 | 4.11 | 6.69 | 1.54 | 3.52 – 4.7 |
| 2031 | 3.58 | 6.91 | 0.26 | 2.79 – 4.38 |
| 2036 | 2.27 | 6.97 | 0 | 1.19 – 3.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/IND · API docs
