Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Ireland: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 21/100); the economy is in expansion; 23 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 12 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.58, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.62) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+6% skill vs naive; realized ±9.5 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Ireland: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed8.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.18 | 30 | -15.97 | 5.46 – 16.91 |
| 2028 | 17.15 | 30 | -29.88 | 6.73 – 27.58 |
| 2030 | 23.12 | 30 | -30 | 8.88 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -30 | 7.67 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed140.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 141.92 | 150 | 132.84 | 137.52 – 146.32 |
| 2028 | 145.63 | 150 | 129.91 | 134.86 – 150 |
| 2030 | 149.34 | 150 | 129.04 | 132.38 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 121.29 | 118.88 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed721.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 761.4bn | 839.9bn | 693.3bn | 737.8bn – 785bn |
| 2028 | 864.1bn | 1T | 746.2bn | 800.1bn – 928bn |
| 2030 | 966.7bn | 1.1T | 814.6bn | 857bn – 1.1T |
| 2035 | 1.2T | 1.5T | 1T | 969.7bn – 1.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 12 | -3.79 | 8.77 – 12 |
| 2028 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 6.17 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.25 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 0.48 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed131.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 137.5k | 152.2k | 124.7k | 133.2k – 141.8k |
| 2028 | 153.1k | 178.6k | 131k | 141.8k – 164.4k |
| 2030 | 168.7k | 201.7k | 140.2k | 149.6k – 187.9k |
| 2035 | 207.8k | 250k | 167.5k | 164.7k – 250k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.35(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.8 | 4.57 | 0.9 | 2.32 – 3.28 |
| 2029 | 2.15 | 5.22 | 0 | 1.29 – 3.01 |
| 2031 | 1.83 | 5.79 | 0 | 0.71 – 2.95 |
| 2036 | 1.57 | 7.18 | 0 | 0 – 3.2 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.74 | 34.16 | 22.47 | 27.44 – 30.03 |
| 2028 | 20.41 | 29.81 | 9.56 | 17.98 – 22.83 |
| 2030 | 12.08 | 24.21 | 0 | 9.24 – 14.91 |
| 2035 | 0 | 17.16 | 0 | 0 – 2.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed99.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 98.21 | 127.71 | 68.71 | 92.12 – 104.3 |
| 2028 | 94.85 | 145.94 | 43.75 | 82.47 – 107.22 |
| 2030 | 91.48 | 150 | 25.52 | 74.07 – 108.9 |
| 2035 | 83.07 | 150 | 0 | 55.5 – 110.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.62 | 9.4 | -4.65 | 1.07 – 4.16 |
| 2028 | 2.75 | 14.5 | -5 | 0.02 – 5.49 |
| 2030 | 2.89 | 18.06 | -5 | -0.71 – 6.48 |
| 2035 | 3.23 | 24.68 | -5 | -2.04 – 8.5 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.06 | 9.41 | -3.74 | 1.61 – 4.52 |
| 2029 | 2.74 | 13.74 | -5 | 0.17 – 5.31 |
| 2031 | 2.63 | 16.82 | -5 | -0.73 – 5.98 |
| 2036 | 2.57 | 22.64 | -5 | -2.3 – 7.43 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21 | 49 | 0 | 16.66 – 25.34 |
| 2028 | 17.64 | 66.14 | 0 | 9.87 – 25.42 |
| 2030 | 14.29 | 70 | 0 | 4.2 – 24.38 |
| 2035 | 5.9 | 70 | 0 | 0 – 19.49 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.5m | 5.7m | 5.2m | 5.3m – 5.6m |
| 2028 | 5.6m | 5.8m | 5.3m | 5.1m – 6m |
| 2030 | 5.7m | 5.9m | 5.4m | 5m – 6.3m |
| 2035 | 5.9m | 6.2m | 5.6m | 4.7m – 7.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.11 | 15 | -1.03 | 9.73 – 14.5 |
| 2028 | 15 | 15 | -7.77 | 10.49 – 15 |
| 2030 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 8.9 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 5.67 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.2bn | 16.1bn | 8.3bn | 11.4bn – 13bn |
| 2028 | 12.9bn | 19.7bn | 6.2bn | 11.3bn – 14.6bn |
| 2030 | 13.6bn | 22.4bn | 4.9bn | 11.2bn – 16.1bn |
| 2035 | 15.4bn | 27.8bn | 3.1bn | 11.1bn – 19.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.14(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.14 | 0.33 | 0 | 0.09 – 0.19 |
| 2027 | 0.13 | 0.33 | 0 | 0.07 – 0.19 |
| 2029 | 0.13 | 0.32 | 0 | 0.03 – 0.23 |
| 2034 | 0.12 | 0.32 | 0 | 0 – 0.31 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.1bn | 18bn | 10.2bn | 13.3bn – 14.9bn |
| 2028 | 15.3bn | 22.1bn | 8.6bn | 13.6bn – 17.1bn |
| 2030 | 16.6bn | 25.3bn | 7.9bn | 13.9bn – 19.2bn |
| 2035 | 19.7bn | 32bn | 7.4bn | 14.7bn – 24.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.31 | 6.08 | 2.54 | 3.97 – 4.65 |
| 2028 | 3.66 | 6.73 | 0.59 | 3.01 – 4.3 |
| 2030 | 3.01 | 6.97 | 0 | 2.16 – 3.86 |
| 2035 | 1.39 | 6.99 | 0 | 0.31 – 2.47 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/IRL · API docs
