Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Iran: macro conditions look stressed (pressure 75/100); the economy is in contraction; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -9.5 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as stressed (sentiment -0.50, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.44) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1982-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1982-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1982-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+0% skill vs naive; realized ±9.3813 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Iran: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 1983, 1985, 1987, 1992, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.79 | 3.19 | -6.76 | -2.83 – -0.74 |
| 2029 | -1.76 | 6.86 | -10.38 | -3.6 – 0.08 |
| 2031 | -1.73 | 9.39 | -12.86 | -4.14 – 0.68 |
| 2036 | -1.67 | 14.07 | -17.41 | -5.15 – 1.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.74 | 33.7 | 18.85 | 24.2 – 27.29 |
| 2028 | 25.72 | 39.49 | 13.79 | 22.52 – 28.93 |
| 2030 | 25.7 | 43.48 | 10.29 | 21.11 – 30.3 |
| 2035 | 25.65 | 50.79 | 3.86 | 17.95 – 33.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed362.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 271.6bn | 427.3bn | 136.7bn | 248.7bn – 294.5bn |
| 2029 | 204.5bn | 474.2bn | 0 | 162.6bn – 246.4bn |
| 2031 | 137.4bn | 485.5bn | 0 | 84.9bn – 189.8bn |
| 2036 | 0 | 492.4bn | 0 | 0 – 58.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -9.5 | -3.89 | -10 | -10 – -8.42 |
| 2029 | -10 | -0.28 | -10 | -10 – -7.9 |
| 2031 | -10 | 2.55 | -10 | -10 – -7.11 |
| 2036 | -10 | 7.74 | -10 | -10 – -5.44 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.1k | 4.8k | 1.7k | 2.9k – 3.4k |
| 2029 | 2.4k | 5.4k | 0 | 2k – 2.9k |
| 2031 | 1.7k | 5.5k | 0 | 1.1k – 2.3k |
| 2036 | 0 | 5.4k | 0 | 0 – 637.79 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 36.04 | 43.68 | 27.22 | 34.29 – 37.79 |
| 2029 | 33.52 | 46.75 | 18.24 | 29.87 – 37.16 |
| 2031 | 30.99 | 48.08 | 11.27 | 25.89 – 36.1 |
| 2036 | 24.69 | 48.86 | 0 | 17.02 – 32.36 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.28 | 41.62 | 28.94 | 33.74 – 36.81 |
| 2028 | 36.86 | 47.84 | 25.88 | 33.41 – 40.31 |
| 2030 | 38.44 | 52.61 | 24.27 | 33.2 – 43.68 |
| 2035 | 42.39 | 62.44 | 22.35 | 32.54 – 52.24 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 50 | 50 | 22.03 | 43.41 – 50 |
| 2029 | 50 | 50 | 1.56 | 37.58 – 50 |
| 2031 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 33.06 – 50 |
| 2036 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 23.7 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.28 | 33.71 | 25.44 | 28.18 – 30.38 |
| 2028 | 30.43 | 38.11 | 23.77 | 27.87 – 32.99 |
| 2030 | 31.58 | 41.49 | 22.98 | 27.63 – 35.52 |
| 2035 | 34.44 | 48.47 | 22.29 | 26.93 – 41.96 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed92.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 87.2m | 91.3m | 83.3m | 84.4m – 89.9m |
| 2029 | 82.2m | 87.8m | 77m | 76.1m – 88.3m |
| 2031 | 77.3m | 84.5m | 70.6m | 68.5m – 86.1m |
| 2036 | 65m | 75.1m | 55.5m | 51.5m – 78.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-3.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.26 | 10.44 | -10 | -6.17 – -2.36 |
| 2028 | -6.71 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -3.2 |
| 2030 | -9.16 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -4.32 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -2.59 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.7bn(1982)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | 3.4bn | 12.1bn | 0 | 2bn – 4.8bn |
| 1985 | 0 | 15bn | 0 | 0 – 2.3bn |
| 1987 | 0 | 19.4bn | 0 | 0 – 3bn |
| 1992 | 0 | 27.4bn | 0 | 0 – 4.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.82(1982)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | 6.21 | 15.17 | 0 | 4.74 – 7.68 |
| 1985 | 6.67 | 22.19 | 0 | 3.97 – 9.36 |
| 1987 | 6.89 | 26.93 | 0 | 3.27 – 10.51 |
| 1992 | 7.07 | 35.41 | 0 | 1.6 – 12.54 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.7bn(1982)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | 5.4bn | 14.8bn | 0 | 3.9bn – 6.9bn |
| 1985 | 507.1m | 16.7bn | 0 | 0 – 3bn |
| 1987 | 0 | 20.9bn | 0 | 0 – 3.2bn |
| 1992 | 0 | 29.6bn | 0 | 0 – 4.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.12 | 10.29 | 7.95 | 8.8 – 9.45 |
| 2029 | 8.96 | 10.99 | 6.94 | 8.22 – 9.71 |
| 2031 | 8.81 | 11.43 | 6.19 | 7.7 – 9.91 |
| 2036 | 8.42 | 12.12 | 4.71 | 6.5 – 10.33 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/IRN · API docs
