Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Iran: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 74/100); the economy is in contraction; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -5.41 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.48, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: cautious (projected sentiment -0.38) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1982-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1982-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1982-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+0% skill vs naive; realized ±0.6883 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Iran: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 1983, 1985, 1987, 1992, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.38 | 7.84 | -7.08 | -1.16 – 1.92 |
| 2028 | -0.06 | 12.86 | -12.98 | -2.75 – 2.62 |
| 2030 | -0.5 | 16.18 | -17.19 | -3.99 – 2.98 |
| 2035 | -1.6 | 21.99 | -25.2 | -6.67 – 3.47 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.74 | 33.7 | 18.85 | 24.2 – 27.29 |
| 2028 | 25.72 | 39.49 | 13.79 | 22.52 – 28.93 |
| 2030 | 25.7 | 43.48 | 10.29 | 21.11 – 30.3 |
| 2035 | 25.65 | 50.79 | 3.86 | 17.95 – 33.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed362.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 358.9bn | 515bn | 223.7bn | 334.6bn – 383.2bn |
| 2028 | 347.4bn | 617.7bn | 113.2bn | 298.6bn – 396.3bn |
| 2030 | 335.9bn | 684.9bn | 33.5bn | 267.5bn – 404.3bn |
| 2035 | 307.2bn | 800.7bn | 0 | 199.3bn – 415.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.41 | 0.18 | -10 | -6.43 – -4.39 |
| 2028 | -10 | -0.32 | -10 | -10 – -7.91 |
| 2030 | -10 | 2.5 | -10 | -10 – -7.12 |
| 2035 | -10 | 7.68 | -10 | -10 – -5.45 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.9k | 5.6k | 2.3k | 3.6k – 4.1k |
| 2028 | 3.6k | 6.7k | 1k | 3.1k – 4.2k |
| 2030 | 3.4k | 7.4k | 55.34 | 2.7k – 4.2k |
| 2035 | 2.9k | 8.5k | 0 | 1.8k – 4.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.73 | 43.44 | 26.83 | 33.97 – 37.49 |
| 2028 | 32.59 | 45.95 | 17.18 | 28.97 – 36.21 |
| 2030 | 29.45 | 46.7 | 9.55 | 24.44 – 34.46 |
| 2035 | 21.61 | 46 | 0 | 14.4 – 28.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.28 | 41.62 | 28.94 | 33.74 – 36.81 |
| 2028 | 36.86 | 47.84 | 25.88 | 33.41 – 40.31 |
| 2030 | 38.44 | 52.61 | 24.27 | 33.2 – 43.68 |
| 2035 | 42.39 | 62.44 | 22.35 | 32.54 – 52.24 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.09 | 50 | 28.14 | 42.41 – 50 |
| 2028 | 50 | 50 | 17.18 | 40.81 – 50 |
| 2030 | 50 | 50 | 7.63 | 37.23 – 50 |
| 2035 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 29.6 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.28 | 33.71 | 25.44 | 28.18 – 30.38 |
| 2028 | 30.43 | 38.11 | 23.77 | 27.87 – 32.99 |
| 2030 | 31.58 | 41.49 | 22.98 | 27.63 – 35.52 |
| 2035 | 34.44 | 48.47 | 22.29 | 26.93 – 41.96 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed92.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 92.1m | 96.5m | 88.1m | 89.3m – 95m |
| 2028 | 93.1m | 97.5m | 89m | 86.2m – 100m |
| 2030 | 94m | 98.5m | 89.9m | 83.3m – 104.7m |
| 2035 | 96.3m | 100.9m | 92.1m | 76.4m – 116.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-3.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.26 | 10.44 | -10 | -6.17 – -2.36 |
| 2028 | -6.71 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -3.2 |
| 2030 | -9.16 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -4.32 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -2.59 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.7bn(1982)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | 3.4bn | 12.1bn | 0 | 2bn – 4.8bn |
| 1985 | 0 | 15bn | 0 | 0 – 2.3bn |
| 1987 | 0 | 19.4bn | 0 | 0 – 3bn |
| 1992 | 0 | 27.4bn | 0 | 0 – 4.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.82(1982)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | 6.21 | 15.17 | 0 | 4.74 – 7.68 |
| 1985 | 6.67 | 22.19 | 0 | 3.97 – 9.36 |
| 1987 | 6.89 | 26.93 | 0 | 3.27 – 10.51 |
| 1992 | 7.07 | 35.41 | 0 | 1.6 – 12.54 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.7bn(1982)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | 5.4bn | 14.8bn | 0 | 3.9bn – 6.9bn |
| 1985 | 507.1m | 16.7bn | 0 | 0 – 3bn |
| 1987 | 0 | 20.9bn | 0 | 0 – 3.2bn |
| 1992 | 0 | 29.6bn | 0 | 0 – 4.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.98 | 8.74 | 7.22 | 7.73 – 8.23 |
| 2028 | 7.33 | 8.65 | 6.01 | 6.78 – 7.89 |
| 2030 | 6.69 | 8.39 | 4.98 | 5.89 – 7.48 |
| 2035 | 5.07 | 7.49 | 2.66 | 3.89 – 6.26 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/IRN · API docs
