Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Iraq: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 74/100); the economy is in contraction; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -8.85 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.48, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.48) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+24% skill vs naive; realized ±8.6174 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Iraq: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-5.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -6.21 | 10.04 | -22.45 | -9.62 – -2.79 |
| 2029 | -8.02 | 20.12 | -30 | -14.14 – -1.89 |
| 2031 | -9.83 | 26.49 | -30 | -18.03 – -1.63 |
| 2036 | -14.36 | 30 | -30 | -27.14 – -1.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.76(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 40.53 | 54.81 | 28.15 | 37.84 – 43.21 |
| 2027 | 42.05 | 66.79 | 20.61 | 36.5 – 47.6 |
| 2029 | 43.58 | 75.51 | 15.9 | 35.53 – 51.63 |
| 2034 | 47.39 | 92.55 | 8.25 | 33.36 – 61.42 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed254.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 265.2bn | 347.3bn | 194bn | 251.2bn – 279.2bn |
| 2029 | 268.1bn | 410.4bn | 144.8bn | 238.3bn – 297.9bn |
| 2031 | 271bn | 454.6bn | 111.8bn | 227.4bn – 314.5bn |
| 2036 | 278.2bn | 538bn | 53.1bn | 202.8bn – 353.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -8.85 | 0.98 | -10 | -10 – -7.07 |
| 2029 | -10 | 7.02 | -10 | -10 – -6.68 |
| 2031 | -10 | 11.97 | -10 | -10 – -5.54 |
| 2036 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -3.22 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.6k | 7.5k | 4k | 5.3k – 5.9k |
| 2029 | 5.5k | 8.8k | 2.7k | 4.9k – 6.2k |
| 2031 | 5.4k | 9.7k | 1.7k | 4.5k – 6.4k |
| 2036 | 5.2k | 11.3k | 0 | 3.7k – 6.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed61.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 61.88 | 87.64 | 32.15 | 56.92 – 66.83 |
| 2029 | 62.23 | 106.86 | 10.74 | 52.38 – 72.09 |
| 2031 | 62.59 | 120.2 | 0 | 48.72 – 76.46 |
| 2036 | 63.48 | 144.95 | 0 | 40.79 – 86.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.38(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 38.31 | 47.08 | 29.55 | 36.36 – 40.27 |
| 2027 | 40.19 | 55.37 | 25.01 | 35.94 – 44.44 |
| 2029 | 42.07 | 61.67 | 22.47 | 35.7 – 48.43 |
| 2034 | 46.76 | 74.48 | 19.04 | 35.03 – 58.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.34 | 7.89 | 0.54 | 3.48 – 5.2 |
| 2029 | 8.12 | 14.27 | 1.53 | 6.36 – 9.87 |
| 2031 | 11.89 | 19.83 | 3.38 | 9.18 – 14.6 |
| 2036 | 21.33 | 32.56 | 9.3 | 15.43 – 27.23 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.36(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14.9 | 25.91 | 5.36 | 13.09 – 16.71 |
| 2027 | 16.2 | 35.27 | 0 | 12.7 – 19.7 |
| 2029 | 17.5 | 42.11 | 0 | 12.58 – 22.41 |
| 2034 | 20.74 | 55.55 | 0 | 12.45 – 29.03 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 46.2m | 48.4m | 44.2m | 44.8m – 47.7m |
| 2029 | 45.8m | 48m | 43.8m | 42.4m – 49.2m |
| 2031 | 45.4m | 47.5m | 43.4m | 40.2m – 50.6m |
| 2036 | 44.4m | 46.9m | 42m | 35.2m – 53.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-4.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.61 | 14.14 | -10 | -8.16 – -3.05 |
| 2028 | -7.57 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -2.93 |
| 2030 | -9.54 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -3.26 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -0.59 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed87bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 94.7bn | 125.1bn | 64.3bn | 88.6bn – 100.9bn |
| 2027 | 112.2bn | 164.9bn | 59.5bn | 98.7bn – 125.6bn |
| 2029 | 129.6bn | 197.6bn | 61.6bn | 108.9bn – 150.4bn |
| 2034 | 173.3bn | 269.5bn | 77.1bn | 130.8bn – 215.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.21(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11.67 | 15.91 | 7.42 | 10.83 – 12.5 |
| 2027 | 12.21 | 19.57 | 4.86 | 10.5 – 13.92 |
| 2029 | 12.48 | 21.97 | 2.99 | 10.03 – 14.93 |
| 2034 | 12.69 | 26.12 | 0 | 8.61 – 16.78 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed100.7bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 110bn | 139.6bn | 80.5bn | 103.7bn – 116.3bn |
| 2027 | 131.6bn | 182.8bn | 80.4bn | 117.4bn – 145.7bn |
| 2029 | 153.1bn | 219.2bn | 87.1bn | 130.8bn – 175.5bn |
| 2034 | 207bn | 300.5bn | 113.6bn | 159.6bn – 254.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.36 | 16.15 | 14.58 | 14.89 – 15.84 |
| 2028 | 15.12 | 16.48 | 13.76 | 14 – 16.24 |
| 2030 | 14.88 | 16.64 | 13.13 | 13.19 – 16.57 |
| 2035 | 14.28 | 16.76 | 11.8 | 11.32 – 17.24 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/IRQ · API docs
