Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Iraq: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 61/100); the economy is in contraction; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -2.56 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.22, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: cautious (projected sentiment -0.20) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+24% skill vs naive; realized ±4.24 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Iraq: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-5.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.42 | 13.76 | -18.6 | -5.76 – 0.92 |
| 2028 | -3.86 | 24.16 | -30 | -9.76 – 2.04 |
| 2030 | -5.3 | 30 | -30 | -13.11 – 2.51 |
| 2035 | -8.9 | 30 | -30 | -20.77 – 2.96 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.76(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 40.53 | 54.81 | 28.15 | 37.84 – 43.21 |
| 2027 | 42.05 | 66.79 | 20.61 | 36.5 – 47.6 |
| 2029 | 43.58 | 75.51 | 15.9 | 35.53 – 51.63 |
| 2034 | 47.39 | 92.55 | 8.25 | 33.36 – 61.42 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed254.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 252bn | 334bn | 180.9bn | 238.2bn – 265.8bn |
| 2028 | 248.6bn | 390.7bn | 125.5bn | 219.8bn – 277.5bn |
| 2030 | 245.3bn | 428.7bn | 86.4bn | 203.8bn – 286.8bn |
| 2035 | 236.9bn | 496.3bn | 12.2bn | 168.2bn – 305.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.56 | 12 | -10 | -5.15 – 0.03 |
| 2028 | -3.5 | 12 | -10 | -8.09 – 1.08 |
| 2030 | -4.45 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.61 |
| 2035 | -6.81 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 2.34 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3k | 7.2k | 3.6k | 5k – 5.6k |
| 2028 | 5k | 8.2k | 2.1k | 4.3k – 5.6k |
| 2030 | 4.7k | 8.9k | 984.28 | 3.8k – 5.5k |
| 2035 | 3.9k | 9.9k | 0 | 2.6k – 5.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed61.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.87 | 78.33 | 23.49 | 48.11 – 57.63 |
| 2028 | 50.81 | 94.91 | 0 | 41.59 – 60.03 |
| 2030 | 48.75 | 105.68 | 0 | 36.09 – 61.41 |
| 2035 | 43.6 | 124.11 | 0 | 24.24 – 62.97 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.38(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 38.31 | 47.08 | 29.55 | 36.36 – 40.27 |
| 2027 | 40.19 | 55.37 | 25.01 | 35.94 – 44.44 |
| 2029 | 42.07 | 61.67 | 22.47 | 35.7 – 48.43 |
| 2034 | 46.76 | 74.48 | 19.04 | 35.03 – 58.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.45 | 5.27 | -5 | -1.74 – 0.83 |
| 2028 | -3.68 | 6.23 | -5 | -5 – -1.31 |
| 2030 | -5 | 7.8 | -5 | -5 – -1.76 |
| 2035 | -5 | 13.1 | -5 | -5 – -0.19 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.36(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14.9 | 25.91 | 5.36 | 13.09 – 16.71 |
| 2027 | 16.2 | 35.27 | 0 | 12.7 – 19.7 |
| 2029 | 17.5 | 42.11 | 0 | 12.58 – 22.41 |
| 2034 | 20.74 | 55.55 | 0 | 12.45 – 29.03 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46.8m | 49m | 44.7m | 45.3m – 48.2m |
| 2028 | 47.8m | 50.1m | 45.7m | 44.3m – 51.4m |
| 2030 | 48.9m | 51.2m | 46.8m | 43.4m – 54.5m |
| 2035 | 51.6m | 54m | 49.3m | 40.9m – 62.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-4.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.61 | 14.14 | -10 | -8.16 – -3.05 |
| 2028 | -7.57 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -2.93 |
| 2030 | -9.54 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -3.26 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -0.59 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed87bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 94.7bn | 125.1bn | 64.3bn | 88.6bn – 100.9bn |
| 2027 | 112.2bn | 164.9bn | 59.5bn | 98.7bn – 125.6bn |
| 2029 | 129.6bn | 197.6bn | 61.6bn | 108.9bn – 150.4bn |
| 2034 | 173.3bn | 269.5bn | 77.1bn | 130.8bn – 215.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.21(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11.67 | 15.91 | 7.42 | 10.83 – 12.5 |
| 2027 | 12.21 | 19.57 | 4.86 | 10.5 – 13.92 |
| 2029 | 12.48 | 21.97 | 2.99 | 10.03 – 14.93 |
| 2034 | 12.69 | 26.12 | 0 | 8.61 – 16.78 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed100.7bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 110bn | 139.6bn | 80.5bn | 103.7bn – 116.3bn |
| 2027 | 131.6bn | 182.8bn | 80.4bn | 117.4bn – 145.7bn |
| 2029 | 153.1bn | 219.2bn | 87.1bn | 130.8bn – 175.5bn |
| 2034 | 207bn | 300.5bn | 113.6bn | 159.6bn – 254.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.36 | 16.15 | 14.58 | 14.89 – 15.84 |
| 2028 | 15.12 | 16.48 | 13.76 | 14 – 16.24 |
| 2030 | 14.88 | 16.64 | 13.13 | 13.19 – 16.57 |
| 2035 | 14.28 | 16.76 | 11.8 | 11.32 – 17.24 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/IRQ · API docs
