Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Iceland: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 40/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.34 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.20, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.10) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2009-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-2% skill vs naive; realized ±1.5607 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Iceland: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5 | 0.53 | -10.52 | -6.2 – -3.79 |
| 2028 | -7.79 | 1.77 | -17.36 | -10.12 – -5.47 |
| 2030 | -10.59 | 1.76 | -22.94 | -13.96 – -7.22 |
| 2035 | -17.58 | -0.11 | -30 | -23.95 – -11.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.91 | 51.75 | 29.65 | 37.58 – 42.24 |
| 2028 | 39.51 | 60.02 | 21.74 | 34.68 – 44.34 |
| 2030 | 39.11 | 65.58 | 16.16 | 32.2 – 46.02 |
| 2035 | 38.1 | 75.54 | 5.65 | 26.65 – 49.54 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.5bn | 46.4bn | 35.4bn | 39.2bn – 41.9bn |
| 2028 | 45.6bn | 55.8bn | 36.7bn | 42.2bn – 49bn |
| 2030 | 50.6bn | 63.8bn | 39.2bn | 44.9bn – 56.4bn |
| 2035 | 63.3bn | 81.9bn | 47.1bn | 50.2bn – 76.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.34 | 12 | -10 | -1.9 – 2.58 |
| 2028 | -1.63 | 12 | -10 | -5.56 – 2.3 |
| 2030 | -3.6 | 12 | -10 | -8.86 – 1.66 |
| 2035 | -8.53 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -0.13 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed98.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 102.6k | 118.4k | 88.9k | 99.1k – 106.1k |
| 2028 | 113.8k | 141.1k | 90.1k | 105.1k – 122.5k |
| 2030 | 125k | 160.3k | 94.4k | 110.8k – 139.2k |
| 2035 | 153k | 202.9k | 109.8k | 121.3k – 184.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.26 | 65.34 | 41.47 | 51.69 – 56.83 |
| 2028 | 50.57 | 69.76 | 28.43 | 45.19 – 55.95 |
| 2030 | 46.89 | 71.66 | 18.31 | 39.33 – 54.45 |
| 2035 | 37.68 | 72.71 | 0 | 26.26 – 49.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.04 | 51.07 | 35.01 | 41.13 – 44.96 |
| 2028 | 44.38 | 58.29 | 30.47 | 40.12 – 48.64 |
| 2030 | 45.72 | 63.68 | 27.77 | 39.32 – 52.13 |
| 2035 | 49.07 | 74.47 | 23.68 | 37.33 – 60.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.6 | 8.47 | -1.62 | 2.46 – 4.73 |
| 2028 | 1.12 | 9.56 | -5 | -0.8 – 3.05 |
| 2030 | -1.35 | 9.54 | -5 | -3.87 – 1.17 |
| 2035 | -5 | 10.4 | -5 | -5 – -0.79 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.45 | 29.45 | 25.72 | 26.6 – 28.3 |
| 2028 | 29.46 | 32.92 | 26.46 | 27.28 – 31.64 |
| 2030 | 31.47 | 35.93 | 27.6 | 27.89 – 35.04 |
| 2035 | 36.49 | 42.8 | 31.02 | 28.92 – 44.06 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed392.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 391.9k | 410.4k | 374.7k | 379.7k – 404k |
| 2028 | 398.4k | 417.2k | 380.9k | 368.9k – 427.8k |
| 2030 | 404.9k | 424k | 387.1k | 358.9k – 450.8k |
| 2035 | 421.1k | 441k | 402.6k | 333.7k – 508.4k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.78 | 8.84 | -8 | -2 – 0.44 |
| 2028 | -2.01 | 14.67 | -10 | -4.19 – 0.17 |
| 2030 | -3.23 | 15 | -10 | -6.18 – -0.28 |
| 2035 | -6.29 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -1.48 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.7bn | 9.2bn | 6.3bn | 7.4bn – 8.1bn |
| 2028 | 8.4bn | 10.9bn | 5.9bn | 7.7bn – 9.2bn |
| 2030 | 9.1bn | 12.4bn | 5.9bn | 7.9bn – 10.4bn |
| 2035 | 10.9bn | 15.5bn | 6.3bn | 8.5bn – 13.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.77 | 9.01 | 2.54 | 5.18 – 6.36 |
| 2028 | 6.31 | 11.91 | 0.7 | 5.15 – 7.47 |
| 2030 | 6.57 | 13.81 | 0 | 4.94 – 8.2 |
| 2035 | 6.78 | 17.02 | 0 | 4.13 – 9.43 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.1bn | 9.5bn | 6.6bn | 7.7bn – 8.4bn |
| 2028 | 8.8bn | 11.4bn | 6.3bn | 8bn – 9.7bn |
| 2030 | 9.6bn | 12.9bn | 6.3bn | 8.3bn – 10.9bn |
| 2035 | 11.6bn | 16.3bn | 6.9bn | 9bn – 14.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.14 | 5.05 | 1.24 | 2.8 – 3.49 |
| 2028 | 2.18 | 5.48 | 0 | 1.57 – 2.79 |
| 2030 | 1.22 | 5.48 | 0 | 0.47 – 1.97 |
| 2035 | 0 | 6.02 | 0 | 0 – 1.08 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ISL · API docs
