Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Iceland: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 40/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.48 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.20, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.18) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2009-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-2% skill vs naive; realized ±6.7832 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Iceland: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.72 | 3.76 | -7.2 | -2.86 – -0.57 |
| 2029 | -3.75 | 5.74 | -13.25 | -5.87 – -1.64 |
| 2031 | -5.79 | 6.47 | -18.05 | -8.75 – -2.82 |
| 2036 | -10.88 | 6.46 | -28.21 | -16.16 – -5.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.91 | 51.75 | 29.65 | 37.58 – 42.24 |
| 2028 | 39.51 | 60.02 | 21.74 | 34.68 – 44.34 |
| 2030 | 39.11 | 65.58 | 16.16 | 32.2 – 46.02 |
| 2035 | 38.1 | 75.54 | 5.65 | 26.65 – 49.54 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 46.7bn | 52.3bn | 41.8bn | 45.2bn – 48.1bn |
| 2029 | 53.9bn | 63.6bn | 45.6bn | 50bn – 57.9bn |
| 2031 | 61.2bn | 73.7bn | 50.4bn | 54.3bn – 68.2bn |
| 2036 | 79.4bn | 97bn | 64.1bn | 62.9bn – 95.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.48 | 10.5 | -4.46 | 1.11 – 3.86 |
| 2029 | 3.47 | 12 | -8.56 | 0.99 – 5.95 |
| 2031 | 4.46 | 12 | -10 | 1.11 – 7.8 |
| 2036 | 6.92 | 12 | -10 | 1.59 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed98.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 116.5k | 130.8k | 104k | 112.9k – 120.1k |
| 2029 | 132.9k | 157.8k | 111.3k | 123.1k – 142.7k |
| 2031 | 149.3k | 181.5k | 121.4k | 132.4k – 166.3k |
| 2036 | 190.4k | 235.8k | 150.9k | 150.9k – 229.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 51.93 | 61.84 | 40.49 | 49.57 – 54.29 |
| 2029 | 48.59 | 65.76 | 28.77 | 43.61 – 53.56 |
| 2031 | 45.25 | 67.42 | 19.66 | 38.21 – 52.28 |
| 2036 | 36.89 | 68.25 | 0.71 | 26.16 – 47.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.04 | 51.07 | 35.01 | 41.13 – 44.96 |
| 2028 | 44.38 | 58.29 | 30.47 | 40.12 – 48.64 |
| 2030 | 45.72 | 63.68 | 27.77 | 39.32 – 52.13 |
| 2035 | 49.07 | 74.47 | 23.68 | 37.33 – 60.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.31 | 10.03 | 0.25 | 4.18 – 6.44 |
| 2029 | 6.3 | 14.47 | -2.45 | 4.19 – 8.41 |
| 2031 | 7.29 | 17.84 | -4.01 | 4.37 – 10.22 |
| 2036 | 9.78 | 24.69 | -5 | 4.9 – 14.65 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.45 | 29.45 | 25.72 | 26.6 – 28.3 |
| 2028 | 29.46 | 32.92 | 26.46 | 27.28 – 31.64 |
| 2030 | 31.47 | 35.93 | 27.6 | 27.89 – 35.04 |
| 2035 | 36.49 | 42.8 | 31.02 | 28.92 – 44.06 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed392.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 396.9k | 415.6k | 379.5k | 384.6k – 409.2k |
| 2029 | 403k | 422.1k | 385.3k | 373.2k – 432.8k |
| 2031 | 409.2k | 428.5k | 391.2k | 362.7k – 455.6k |
| 2036 | 424.6k | 444.6k | 405.9k | 336.5k – 512.6k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.78 | 8.84 | -8 | -2 – 0.44 |
| 2028 | -2.01 | 14.67 | -10 | -4.19 – 0.17 |
| 2030 | -3.23 | 15 | -10 | -6.18 – -0.28 |
| 2035 | -6.29 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -1.48 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.7bn | 9.2bn | 6.3bn | 7.4bn – 8.1bn |
| 2028 | 8.4bn | 10.9bn | 5.9bn | 7.7bn – 9.2bn |
| 2030 | 9.1bn | 12.4bn | 5.9bn | 7.9bn – 10.4bn |
| 2035 | 10.9bn | 15.5bn | 6.3bn | 8.5bn – 13.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.77 | 9.01 | 2.54 | 5.18 – 6.36 |
| 2028 | 6.31 | 11.91 | 0.7 | 5.15 – 7.47 |
| 2030 | 6.57 | 13.81 | 0 | 4.94 – 8.2 |
| 2035 | 6.78 | 17.02 | 0 | 4.13 – 9.43 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.1bn | 9.5bn | 6.6bn | 7.7bn – 8.4bn |
| 2028 | 8.8bn | 11.4bn | 6.3bn | 8bn – 9.7bn |
| 2030 | 9.6bn | 12.9bn | 6.3bn | 8.3bn – 10.9bn |
| 2035 | 11.6bn | 16.3bn | 6.9bn | 9bn – 14.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.93 | 5.84 | 2.01 | 3.57 – 4.28 |
| 2029 | 3.38 | 6.69 | 0.07 | 2.71 – 4.05 |
| 2031 | 2.84 | 7.11 | 0 | 1.95 – 3.72 |
| 2036 | 1.47 | 7.52 | 0 | 0.31 – 2.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ISL · API docs
