Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Israel: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 30/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.16 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.40, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.34) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-04-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±0.3409 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Israel: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed1.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.38 | 2.78 | -0.02 | 1.07 – 1.69 |
| 2028 | 1.14 | 3.56 | -1.28 | 0.59 – 1.69 |
| 2030 | 0.9 | 4.03 | -2.22 | 0.19 – 1.62 |
| 2035 | 0.31 | 4.73 | -4.11 | -0.75 – 1.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.48 | 30.87 | 24.54 | 26.55 – 28.4 |
| 2028 | 27.32 | 33.19 | 22.23 | 25.17 – 29.47 |
| 2030 | 27.16 | 34.74 | 20.59 | 23.9 – 30.41 |
| 2035 | 26.75 | 37.48 | 17.46 | 20.94 – 32.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed610.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 633.2bn | 694.2bn | 580.2bn | 613.5bn – 652.8bn |
| 2028 | 693.2bn | 799bn | 601.5bn | 641.9bn – 744.5bn |
| 2030 | 753.3bn | 889.9bn | 634.9bn | 667.7bn – 838.8bn |
| 2035 | 903.4bn | 1.1T | 736bn | 716bn – 1.1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.16 | 12 | -6.88 | 1.18 – 5.14 |
| 2028 | 3.57 | 12 | -10 | 0.06 – 7.09 |
| 2030 | 3.98 | 12 | -10 | -0.65 – 8.62 |
| 2035 | 5.02 | 12 | -10 | -1.89 – 11.92 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.8k | 68.6k | 55.9k | 59.9k – 63.7k |
| 2028 | 65.9k | 77.7k | 55.8k | 61.1k – 70.8k |
| 2030 | 70.1k | 85.2k | 57k | 62.1k – 78k |
| 2035 | 80.4k | 101.8k | 61.9k | 63.7k – 97.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69.24 | 78.78 | 58.23 | 66.66 – 71.82 |
| 2028 | 70.72 | 87.25 | 51.65 | 64.78 – 76.66 |
| 2030 | 72.2 | 93.54 | 47.58 | 63.14 – 81.26 |
| 2035 | 75.9 | 106.07 | 41.09 | 59.11 – 92.69 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.21 | 29.48 | 20.93 | 24.15 – 26.26 |
| 2028 | 24.76 | 32.16 | 17.36 | 22.44 – 27.08 |
| 2030 | 24.31 | 33.87 | 14.76 | 20.9 – 27.72 |
| 2035 | 23.19 | 36.7 | 9.68 | 17.41 – 28.97 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.11 | 6.19 | -0.2 | 2.37 – 3.84 |
| 2028 | 3.06 | 8.41 | -2.67 | 1.73 – 4.39 |
| 2030 | 3.01 | 9.92 | -4.38 | 1.24 – 4.79 |
| 2035 | 2.9 | 12.66 | -5 | 0.27 – 5.53 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.52 | 25.48 | 21.82 | 22.79 – 24.25 |
| 2028 | 22.94 | 26.35 | 20 | 21.25 – 24.64 |
| 2030 | 22.37 | 26.76 | 18.56 | 19.83 – 24.91 |
| 2035 | 20.94 | 27.15 | 15.55 | 16.6 – 25.28 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.1m | 10.5m | 9.6m | 9.8m – 10.4m |
| 2028 | 10.2m | 10.7m | 9.7m | 9.4m – 11m |
| 2030 | 10.3m | 10.8m | 9.9m | 9.2m – 11.5m |
| 2035 | 10.7m | 11.2m | 10.2m | 8.4m – 12.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.18 | 12.79 | -7.53 | -0.29 – 2.65 |
| 2028 | 1.03 | 15 | -10 | -1.53 – 3.59 |
| 2030 | 0.88 | 15 | -10 | -2.44 – 4.21 |
| 2035 | 0.51 | 15 | -10 | -4.24 – 5.26 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed229.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 240bn | 279.4bn | 200.5bn | 230.1bn – 249.8bn |
| 2028 | 266.4bn | 334.7bn | 198bn | 243.1bn – 289.6bn |
| 2030 | 292.8bn | 381.1bn | 204.6bn | 255.9bn – 329.7bn |
| 2035 | 358.9bn | 483.7bn | 234.1bn | 282.4bn – 435.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.45 | 19.72 | 9.18 | 13.41 – 15.49 |
| 2028 | 14.34 | 23.47 | 5.21 | 12.25 – 16.42 |
| 2030 | 14.28 | 26.07 | 2.49 | 11.33 – 17.23 |
| 2035 | 14.24 | 30.91 | 0 | 9.41 – 19.07 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed229.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 240bn | 279.4bn | 200.5bn | 230.1bn – 249.8bn |
| 2028 | 266.4bn | 334.7bn | 198bn | 243.1bn – 289.6bn |
| 2030 | 292.8bn | 381.1bn | 204.6bn | 255.9bn – 329.7bn |
| 2035 | 358.9bn | 483.7bn | 234.1bn | 282.4bn – 435.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.28 | 4.43 | 2.12 | 3.05 – 3.51 |
| 2028 | 2.86 | 4.86 | 0.86 | 2.41 – 3.3 |
| 2030 | 2.44 | 5.02 | 0 | 1.85 – 3.03 |
| 2035 | 1.38 | 5.03 | 0 | 0.6 – 2.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ISR · API docs
