Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Italy: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 56/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 23 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.66 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.12, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment -0.06) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±0.1608 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Italy: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed0.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.79 | 4.35 | -2.77 | 0.05 – 1.54 |
| 2028 | -0.02 | 6.15 | -6.19 | -1.33 – 1.29 |
| 2030 | -0.84 | 7.13 | -8.8 | -2.54 – 0.87 |
| 2035 | -2.87 | 8.39 | -14.13 | -5.63 – -0.11 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.64 | 37 | 28.86 | 31.49 – 33.78 |
| 2028 | 33.46 | 41.02 | 26.91 | 30.78 – 36.15 |
| 2030 | 34.28 | 44.04 | 25.83 | 30.15 – 38.42 |
| 2035 | 36.34 | 50.14 | 24.38 | 28.56 – 44.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.6T | 2.9T | 2.4T | 2.6T – 2.7T |
| 2028 | 2.9T | 3.4T | 2.4T | 2.7T – 3.1T |
| 2030 | 3.1T | 3.8T | 2.5T | 2.7T – 3.5T |
| 2035 | 3.7T | 4.6T | 2.8T | 2.9T – 4.4T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.66 | 12 | -10 | -2.2 – 3.53 |
| 2028 | 0.83 | 12 | -10 | -4.15 – 5.81 |
| 2030 | 1 | 12 | -10 | -5.45 – 7.45 |
| 2035 | 1.42 | 12 | -10 | -7.82 – 10.65 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44.9k | 50k | 40.4k | 43.5k – 46.3k |
| 2028 | 48.8k | 57.7k | 41.1k | 45.2k – 52.4k |
| 2030 | 52.7k | 64.1k | 42.8k | 46.7k – 58.7k |
| 2035 | 62.5k | 78.7k | 48.4k | 49.5k – 75.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.99(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.59 | 6.24 | 0.76 | 2.88 – 4.3 |
| 2029 | 3.12 | 7.7 | 0 | 1.84 – 4.4 |
| 2031 | 2.89 | 8.8 | 0 | 1.2 – 4.58 |
| 2036 | 2.71 | 11.07 | 0 | 0.21 – 5.2 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed138.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 137.32 | 151.87 | 120.53 | 132.89 – 141.76 |
| 2028 | 137.76 | 162.97 | 108.68 | 127.27 – 148.25 |
| 2030 | 138.21 | 170.74 | 100.66 | 122.14 – 154.27 |
| 2035 | 139.31 | 185.33 | 86.22 | 109.94 – 168.68 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.93 | 38.74 | 23.11 | 29.24 – 32.62 |
| 2028 | 32.18 | 45.71 | 18.66 | 28.57 – 35.8 |
| 2030 | 33.44 | 50.91 | 15.98 | 28.09 – 38.79 |
| 2035 | 36.59 | 61.29 | 11.89 | 26.96 – 46.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.18 | 9.89 | -5 | 0.44 – 3.93 |
| 2028 | 2.95 | 16.29 | -5 | -0.15 – 6.05 |
| 2030 | 3.72 | 20.95 | -5 | -0.4 – 7.84 |
| 2035 | 5.64 | 30 | -5 | -0.66 – 11.95 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.92 | 13.02 | -5 | 0.64 – 5.21 |
| 2029 | 2.66 | 20.15 | -5 | -1.35 – 6.66 |
| 2031 | 2.56 | 25.15 | -5 | -2.65 – 7.77 |
| 2036 | 2.51 | 34.45 | -5 | -4.97 – 10 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.99 | 24.19 | 20.09 | 21.31 – 22.68 |
| 2028 | 22.51 | 26.32 | 19.21 | 20.85 – 24.18 |
| 2030 | 23.03 | 27.95 | 18.77 | 20.42 – 25.65 |
| 2035 | 24.33 | 31.29 | 18.3 | 19.28 – 29.38 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.9m | 61.7m | 56.3m | 57.1m – 60.8m |
| 2028 | 58.9m | 61.7m | 56.3m | 54.5m – 63.3m |
| 2030 | 58.9m | 61.6m | 56.3m | 52.2m – 65.5m |
| 2035 | 58.8m | 61.5m | 56.2m | 46.6m – 70.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.75 | 15 | -10 | -1.43 – 2.93 |
| 2028 | 0.69 | 15 | -10 | -3.1 – 4.48 |
| 2030 | 0.63 | 15 | -10 | -4.28 – 5.54 |
| 2035 | 0.48 | 15 | -10 | -6.51 – 7.48 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed89.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 92.5bn | 107bn | 78bn | 88.8bn – 96.2bn |
| 2028 | 100bn | 125.2bn | 74.8bn | 91.4bn – 108.7bn |
| 2030 | 107.5bn | 140bn | 75bn | 93.9bn – 121.1bn |
| 2035 | 126.2bn | 172.2bn | 80.3bn | 99bn – 153.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.07 | 6.64 | 3.49 | 4.74 – 5.39 |
| 2028 | 4.35 | 7.08 | 1.62 | 3.72 – 4.98 |
| 2030 | 4 | 7.52 | 0.47 | 3.14 – 4.86 |
| 2035 | 3.72 | 8.7 | 0 | 2.36 – 5.07 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed434bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 475.6bn | 562.3bn | 388.9bn | 454.7bn – 496.5bn |
| 2028 | 581.5bn | 731.7bn | 431.3bn | 530.6bn – 632.4bn |
| 2030 | 687.3bn | 881.2bn | 493.4bn | 602.7bn – 772bn |
| 2035 | 952bn | 1.2T | 677.8bn | 754.5bn – 1.1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.72 | 6.97 | 4.47 | 5.44 – 6 |
| 2028 | 4.38 | 6.55 | 2.21 | 3.84 – 4.92 |
| 2030 | 3.04 | 5.84 | 0.24 | 2.37 – 3.71 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.96 | 0 | 0 – 0.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ITA · API docs
