Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Jamaica: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 64/100); the economy is in contraction; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -1.83 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.28, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.26) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±5.4318 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Jamaica: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -6.11 | 0.12 | -12.33 | -7.48 – -4.74 |
| 2029 | -6.32 | 4.46 | -17.1 | -8.83 – -3.82 |
| 2031 | -6.54 | 7.38 | -20.46 | -9.9 – -3.17 |
| 2036 | -7.07 | 12.62 | -26.76 | -12.22 – -1.92 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 23.6bn | 26.8bn | 20.9bn | 22.9bn – 24.4bn |
| 2029 | 25.3bn | 30.7bn | 20.5bn | 23.4bn – 27.1bn |
| 2031 | 26.9bn | 33.9bn | 20.8bn | 23.8bn – 29.9bn |
| 2036 | 31bn | 40.9bn | 22.3bn | 24.5bn – 37.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.83 | 2.09 | -5.23 | -2.51 – -1.15 |
| 2029 | -3.48 | 3.31 | -9.36 | -4.78 – -2.18 |
| 2031 | -5.12 | 3.64 | -10 | -7 – -3.25 |
| 2036 | -9.24 | 3.16 | -10 | -10 – -5.7 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.6k | 9.7k | 7.6k | 8.3k – 8.9k |
| 2029 | 9.3k | 11.2k | 7.6k | 8.6k – 10k |
| 2031 | 10k | 12.4k | 7.8k | 8.8k – 11.1k |
| 2036 | 11.7k | 15.2k | 8.6k | 9.3k – 14.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 61.83 | 77.66 | 43.57 | 58.41 – 65.26 |
| 2029 | 53.9 | 81.32 | 22.27 | 47.1 – 60.71 |
| 2031 | 45.97 | 81.36 | 5.13 | 36.85 – 55.09 |
| 2036 | 26.14 | 76.19 | 0 | 14.26 – 38.02 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.11 | 13.04 | 0.76 | 5.69 – 8.54 |
| 2029 | 10.05 | 20.32 | -0.95 | 7.29 – 12.81 |
| 2031 | 12.98 | 26.24 | -1.22 | 9 – 16.96 |
| 2036 | 20.32 | 39.06 | 0.23 | 12.91 – 27.72 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.7m | 2.9m | 2.6m | 2.7m – 2.8m |
| 2029 | 2.7m | 2.8m | 2.5m | 2.5m – 2.9m |
| 2031 | 2.6m | 2.7m | 2.5m | 2.3m – 2.9m |
| 2036 | 2.3m | 2.5m | 2.2m | 1.9m – 2.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.57 | 6.69 | -6.01 | -1.49 – 0.35 |
| 2028 | -0.86 | 11.71 | -10 | -2.47 – 0.76 |
| 2030 | -1.14 | 15 | -10 | -3.26 – 0.98 |
| 2035 | -1.86 | 15 | -10 | -5.03 – 1.3 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.7bn | 7.5bn | 6bn | 6.5bn – 6.9bn |
| 2028 | 7.8bn | 9.1bn | 6.4bn | 7.2bn – 8.3bn |
| 2030 | 8.8bn | 10.5bn | 7.1bn | 7.8bn – 9.8bn |
| 2035 | 11.4bn | 13.8bn | 9bn | 9bn – 13.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.47(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.23 | 8.41 | 4.06 | 5.8 – 6.67 |
| 2027 | 5.95 | 9.72 | 2.18 | 5.08 – 6.81 |
| 2029 | 5.81 | 10.67 | 0.94 | 4.6 – 7.02 |
| 2034 | 5.7 | 12.58 | 0 | 3.73 – 7.66 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.7bn | 7.5bn | 6bn | 6.5bn – 6.9bn |
| 2028 | 7.8bn | 9.1bn | 6.4bn | 7.2bn – 8.3bn |
| 2030 | 8.8bn | 10.5bn | 7.1bn | 7.8bn – 9.8bn |
| 2035 | 11.4bn | 13.8bn | 9bn | 9bn – 13.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.62 | 3.87 | 1.37 | 2.39 – 2.86 |
| 2028 | 1.29 | 3.46 | 0 | 0.9 – 1.69 |
| 2030 | 0 | 2.8 | 0 | 0 – 0.51 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.96 | 0 | 0 – 0.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-05 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/JAM · API docs
