Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Jordan: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 50/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.88 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.00, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.00) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±0.1846 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Jordan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2022, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-7.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.65 | -0.43 | -10.87 | -6.8 – -4.49 |
| 2028 | -5.75 | 3.29 | -14.79 | -7.87 – -3.63 |
| 2030 | -5.84 | 5.83 | -17.52 | -8.69 – -2.99 |
| 2035 | -6.09 | 10.42 | -22.59 | -10.43 – -1.75 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.61(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 44.11 | 58.84 | 31.35 | 41.3 – 46.92 |
| 2027 | 47.11 | 72.62 | 25.01 | 41.21 – 53.02 |
| 2029 | 50.11 | 83.04 | 21.57 | 41.4 – 58.82 |
| 2034 | 57.61 | 104.17 | 17.25 | 41.74 – 73.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed61.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.5bn | 66.9bn | 60.7bn | 61.6bn – 65.5bn |
| 2028 | 68.4bn | 73bn | 64.5bn | 63.4bn – 73.5bn |
| 2030 | 73.3bn | 79.2bn | 68.3bn | 65bn – 81.7bn |
| 2035 | 85.6bn | 93.8bn | 78.4bn | 67.8bn – 103.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.88 | 7.33 | -0.97 | 2.1 – 3.67 |
| 2028 | 3.06 | 10.77 | -3.62 | 1.63 – 4.49 |
| 2030 | 3.23 | 12 | -5.39 | 1.32 – 5.15 |
| 2035 | 3.67 | 12 | -8.52 | 0.74 – 6.6 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.5k | 5.8k | 5.2k | 5.3k – 5.6k |
| 2028 | 5.8k | 6.3k | 5.4k | 5.4k – 6.2k |
| 2030 | 6.1k | 6.7k | 5.6k | 5.4k – 6.8k |
| 2035 | 6.9k | 7.8k | 6.2k | 5.5k – 8.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed82.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 85.47 | 90.48 | 79.69 | 82.82 – 88.12 |
| 2028 | 89.21 | 97.89 | 79.2 | 82.61 – 95.81 |
| 2030 | 92.95 | 104.15 | 80.02 | 82.4 – 103.5 |
| 2035 | 102.3 | 118.14 | 84.02 | 81.08 – 123.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.07(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 57.98 | 70.48 | 45.48 | 55.14 – 60.82 |
| 2027 | 59.81 | 81.46 | 38.15 | 53.62 – 65.99 |
| 2029 | 61.63 | 89.59 | 33.68 | 52.43 – 70.84 |
| 2034 | 66.2 | 105.74 | 26.67 | 49.56 – 82.85 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.93 | 5.31 | -1.69 | 1.15 – 2.71 |
| 2028 | 2.22 | 8.08 | -4.05 | 0.82 – 3.63 |
| 2030 | 2.52 | 10.07 | -5 | 0.64 – 4.39 |
| 2035 | 3.25 | 13.94 | -5 | 0.36 – 6.14 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.16(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22.27 | 25.68 | 19.31 | 21.42 – 23.11 |
| 2024 | 22.69 | 28.61 | 17.57 | 20.76 – 24.63 |
| 2026 | 23.12 | 30.76 | 16.5 | 20.18 – 26.06 |
| 2031 | 24.19 | 34.99 | 14.83 | 18.78 – 29.61 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.5m | 12m | 11m | 11.1m – 11.8m |
| 2028 | 11.4m | 12m | 10.9m | 10.6m – 12.3m |
| 2030 | 11.4m | 11.9m | 10.9m | 10.1m – 12.7m |
| 2035 | 11.3m | 11.8m | 10.8m | 9m – 13.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.05 | 14.54 | -5.58 | 1.56 – 4.53 |
| 2028 | 5.28 | 15 | -9.65 | 2.54 – 8.02 |
| 2030 | 7.51 | 15 | -10 | 3.7 – 11.33 |
| 2035 | 13.1 | 15 | -10 | 6.46 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.9bn | 18.8bn | 15bn | 16.3bn – 17.4bn |
| 2028 | 18.2bn | 21.6bn | 14.9bn | 16.8bn – 19.6bn |
| 2030 | 19.6bn | 23.9bn | 15.3bn | 17.4bn – 21.8bn |
| 2035 | 22.9bn | 29bn | 16.9bn | 18.2bn – 27.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.79(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.89 | 10.42 | 5.37 | 7.38 – 8.41 |
| 2027 | 8.01 | 12.39 | 3.64 | 6.96 – 9.07 |
| 2029 | 8.07 | 13.72 | 2.43 | 6.56 – 9.58 |
| 2034 | 8.12 | 16.1 | 0.14 | 5.6 – 10.64 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.4bn | 31.5bn | 25.2bn | 27.4bn – 29.3bn |
| 2028 | 32.9bn | 38.4bn | 27.4bn | 30.4bn – 35.3bn |
| 2030 | 37.4bn | 44.5bn | 30.3bn | 33.1bn – 41.6bn |
| 2035 | 48.7bn | 58.7bn | 38.7bn | 38.6bn – 58.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.84 | 17.63 | 14.05 | 15.31 – 16.36 |
| 2028 | 14.44 | 17.54 | 11.35 | 13.28 – 15.61 |
| 2030 | 13.05 | 17.05 | 9.05 | 11.39 – 14.7 |
| 2035 | 9.56 | 15.22 | 3.91 | 7.17 – 11.96 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/JOR · API docs
