Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Jordan: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 55/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.7 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment -0.06) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±2.7397 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Jordan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2022, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-6.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -6.4 | -2.11 | -10.69 | -7.38 – -5.42 |
| 2029 | -6.8 | 0.64 | -14.23 | -8.64 – -4.95 |
| 2031 | -7.19 | 2.4 | -16.79 | -9.73 – -4.66 |
| 2036 | -8.19 | 5.38 | -21.76 | -12.27 – -4.11 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.61(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 44.11 | 58.84 | 31.35 | 41.3 – 46.92 |
| 2027 | 47.11 | 72.62 | 25.01 | 41.21 – 53.02 |
| 2029 | 50.11 | 83.04 | 21.57 | 41.4 – 58.82 |
| 2034 | 57.61 | 104.17 | 17.25 | 41.74 – 73.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed61.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 67.1bn | 70.6bn | 64bn | 65bn – 69.2bn |
| 2029 | 72.6bn | 77.2bn | 68.6bn | 67.2bn – 78bn |
| 2031 | 78.1bn | 84bn | 73bn | 69.2bn – 87bn |
| 2036 | 91.9bn | 100.3bn | 84.6bn | 72.8bn – 110.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.7 | 3.79 | 1.75 | 2.47 – 2.92 |
| 2029 | 2.67 | 4.56 | 1.03 | 2.22 – 3.11 |
| 2031 | 2.63 | 5.08 | 0.52 | 2.02 – 3.25 |
| 2036 | 2.55 | 6.01 | -0.44 | 1.57 – 3.54 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.8k | 6.1k | 5.5k | 5.6k – 5.9k |
| 2029 | 6.2k | 6.6k | 5.8k | 5.7k – 6.6k |
| 2031 | 6.6k | 7.2k | 6.1k | 5.8k – 7.3k |
| 2036 | 7.6k | 8.5k | 6.9k | 6k – 9.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed81.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 83.57 | 88.48 | 77.91 | 80.98 – 86.16 |
| 2029 | 87.11 | 95.61 | 77.3 | 80.67 – 93.56 |
| 2031 | 90.65 | 101.63 | 77.99 | 80.36 – 100.95 |
| 2036 | 99.51 | 115.03 | 81.6 | 78.87 – 120.15 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.07(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 57.98 | 70.48 | 45.48 | 55.14 – 60.82 |
| 2027 | 59.81 | 81.46 | 38.15 | 53.62 – 65.99 |
| 2029 | 61.63 | 89.59 | 33.68 | 52.43 – 70.84 |
| 2034 | 66.2 | 105.74 | 26.67 | 49.56 – 82.85 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.52 | 5.83 | -1.03 | 1.74 – 3.29 |
| 2029 | 3.27 | 9.01 | -2.89 | 1.84 – 4.7 |
| 2031 | 4.01 | 11.43 | -3.93 | 2.05 – 5.98 |
| 2036 | 5.88 | 16.36 | -5 | 2.62 – 9.15 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.16(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22.27 | 25.68 | 19.31 | 21.42 – 23.11 |
| 2024 | 22.69 | 28.61 | 17.57 | 20.76 – 24.63 |
| 2026 | 23.12 | 30.76 | 16.5 | 20.18 – 26.06 |
| 2031 | 24.19 | 34.99 | 14.83 | 18.78 – 29.61 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11.6m | 12.1m | 11.1m | 11.2m – 11.9m |
| 2029 | 11.7m | 12.2m | 11.1m | 10.8m – 12.5m |
| 2031 | 11.7m | 12.3m | 11.2m | 10.4m – 13.1m |
| 2036 | 11.9m | 12.5m | 11.4m | 9.4m – 14.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.05 | 14.54 | -5.58 | 1.56 – 4.53 |
| 2028 | 5.28 | 15 | -9.65 | 2.54 – 8.02 |
| 2030 | 7.51 | 15 | -10 | 3.7 – 11.33 |
| 2035 | 13.1 | 15 | -10 | 6.46 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.9bn | 18.8bn | 15bn | 16.3bn – 17.4bn |
| 2028 | 18.2bn | 21.6bn | 14.9bn | 16.8bn – 19.6bn |
| 2030 | 19.6bn | 23.9bn | 15.3bn | 17.4bn – 21.8bn |
| 2035 | 22.9bn | 29bn | 16.9bn | 18.2bn – 27.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.79(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.89 | 10.42 | 5.37 | 7.38 – 8.41 |
| 2027 | 8.01 | 12.39 | 3.64 | 6.96 – 9.07 |
| 2029 | 8.07 | 13.72 | 2.43 | 6.56 – 9.58 |
| 2034 | 8.12 | 16.1 | 0.14 | 5.6 – 10.64 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.4bn | 31.5bn | 25.2bn | 27.4bn – 29.3bn |
| 2028 | 32.9bn | 38.4bn | 27.4bn | 30.4bn – 35.3bn |
| 2030 | 37.4bn | 44.5bn | 30.3bn | 33.1bn – 41.6bn |
| 2035 | 48.7bn | 58.7bn | 38.7bn | 38.6bn – 58.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 21.37 | 25.96 | 16.77 | 20.32 – 22.41 |
| 2029 | 21.51 | 29.46 | 13.55 | 19.25 – 23.76 |
| 2031 | 21.64 | 31.92 | 11.37 | 18.34 – 24.95 |
| 2036 | 21.98 | 36.52 | 7.45 | 16.24 – 27.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/JOR · API docs
