Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Japan: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 49/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 20 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.85 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.08) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±4.0601 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Japan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.99 | 6.18 | 1.8 | 3.48 – 4.5 |
| 2029 | 4.37 | 8.16 | 0.58 | 3.39 – 5.36 |
| 2031 | 4.75 | 9.65 | -0.14 | 3.37 – 6.13 |
| 2036 | 5.7 | 12.63 | -1.22 | 3.38 – 8.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.98(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22.72 | 26.11 | 19.78 | 21.87 – 23.57 |
| 2027 | 24.2 | 30.08 | 19.11 | 22.2 – 26.2 |
| 2029 | 25.69 | 33.27 | 19.11 | 22.55 – 28.82 |
| 2034 | 29.39 | 40.12 | 20.1 | 23.16 – 35.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.3T | 5T | 3.8T | 4.2T – 4.5T |
| 2029 | 4.3T | 5.3T | 3.3T | 3.9T – 4.6T |
| 2031 | 4.2T | 5.5T | 3T | 3.7T – 4.7T |
| 2036 | 3.9T | 5.9T | 2.2T | 3.1T – 4.8T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.85 | 3.32 | -1.29 | 0.42 – 1.28 |
| 2029 | 1.09 | 5.38 | -2.62 | 0.33 – 1.86 |
| 2031 | 1.33 | 6.87 | -3.46 | 0.31 – 2.36 |
| 2036 | 1.94 | 9.76 | -4.84 | 0.33 – 3.55 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 35.6k | 40.5k | 31.3k | 34.4k – 36.7k |
| 2029 | 35.1k | 43.7k | 27.7k | 32.4k – 37.8k |
| 2031 | 34.6k | 45.7k | 25k | 30.5k – 38.7k |
| 2036 | 33.4k | 49.1k | 19.9k | 26.2k – 40.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed204.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 204.71 | 221.16 | 185.74 | 198.37 – 211.06 |
| 2029 | 205.34 | 233.83 | 172.48 | 190.15 – 220.54 |
| 2031 | 205.97 | 242.74 | 163.55 | 182.59 – 229.36 |
| 2036 | 207.55 | 259.55 | 147.55 | 164.49 – 250.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.87(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23.96 | 29.14 | 18.78 | 22.78 – 25.14 |
| 2027 | 26.13 | 35.1 | 17.17 | 23.51 – 28.76 |
| 2029 | 28.31 | 39.88 | 16.73 | 24.27 – 32.34 |
| 2034 | 33.74 | 50.11 | 17.37 | 25.83 – 41.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.77 | 4.39 | -1.03 | 1.17 – 2.38 |
| 2029 | 0.41 | 4.94 | -4.44 | -0.64 – 1.46 |
| 2031 | -0.95 | 4.89 | -5 | -2.32 – 0.43 |
| 2036 | -4.35 | 3.91 | -5 | -5 – -1.83 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.81(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 27.99 | 29.46 | 26.72 | 27.12 – 28.86 |
| 2027 | 28.42 | 29.91 | 27.13 | 26.32 – 30.52 |
| 2029 | 28.85 | 30.36 | 27.54 | 25.57 – 32.12 |
| 2034 | 29.92 | 31.86 | 28.24 | 23.71 – 36.13 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed123.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 122.8m | 128.6m | 117.4m | 119m – 126.6m |
| 2029 | 122m | 127.8m | 116.7m | 113m – 131m |
| 2031 | 121.2m | 127m | 115.9m | 107.5m – 135m |
| 2036 | 119.3m | 124.9m | 114m | 94.5m – 144m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.29 | 9.01 | -4.51 | 0.3 – 2.27 |
| 2028 | 1.66 | 15 | -8.37 | -0.09 – 3.41 |
| 2030 | 2.04 | 15 | -10 | -0.28 – 4.36 |
| 2035 | 2.98 | 15 | -10 | -0.55 – 6.51 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3T | 1.4T | 1.1T | 1.2T – 1.3T |
| 2028 | 1.3T | 1.6T | 960.8bn | 1.2T – 1.4T |
| 2030 | 1.3T | 1.7T | 880bn | 1.1T – 1.4T |
| 2035 | 1.3T | 1.8T | 736.6bn | 999.2bn – 1.6T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.33 | 18.19 | 10.47 | 13.51 – 15.15 |
| 2028 | 14.71 | 21.4 | 8.02 | 12.98 – 16.44 |
| 2030 | 14.9 | 23.53 | 6.27 | 12.38 – 17.41 |
| 2035 | 15.05 | 27.25 | 2.84 | 10.77 – 19.32 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4T | 1.6T | 1.2T | 1.3T – 1.4T |
| 2028 | 1.4T | 1.8T | 1.1T | 1.3T – 1.6T |
| 2030 | 1.5T | 1.9T | 1T | 1.3T – 1.7T |
| 2035 | 1.6T | 2.2T | 974.9bn | 1.2T – 1.9T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.44 | 2.64 | 2.24 | 2.36 – 2.51 |
| 2029 | 2.32 | 2.6 | 2.04 | 2.15 – 2.49 |
| 2031 | 2.2 | 2.56 | 1.84 | 1.95 – 2.45 |
| 2036 | 1.89 | 2.4 | 1.38 | 1.5 – 2.28 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/JPN · API docs
