Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Japan: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.46 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.08) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±0.76 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Japan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.99 | 7.01 | 2.96 | 4.49 – 5.48 |
| 2028 | 5.36 | 8.87 | 1.85 | 4.38 – 6.33 |
| 2030 | 5.73 | 10.26 | 1.2 | 4.35 – 7.11 |
| 2035 | 6.66 | 13.06 | 0.25 | 4.28 – 9.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.98(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22.72 | 26.11 | 19.78 | 21.87 – 23.57 |
| 2027 | 24.2 | 30.08 | 19.11 | 22.2 – 26.2 |
| 2029 | 25.69 | 33.27 | 19.11 | 22.55 – 28.82 |
| 2034 | 29.39 | 40.12 | 20.1 | 23.16 – 35.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.4T | 5T | 3.8T | 4.2T – 4.5T |
| 2028 | 4.2T | 5.3T | 3.3T | 3.9T – 4.6T |
| 2030 | 4.1T | 5.5T | 2.8T | 3.6T – 4.6T |
| 2035 | 3.7T | 5.7T | 1.9T | 2.8T – 4.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.46 | 8.97 | -5.05 | 0.19 – 2.73 |
| 2028 | 2.09 | 12 | -9.18 | -0.18 – 4.35 |
| 2030 | 2.71 | 12 | -10 | -0.3 – 5.73 |
| 2035 | 4.28 | 12 | -10 | -0.36 – 8.92 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.6k | 40.7k | 31.2k | 34.4k – 36.8k |
| 2028 | 34.6k | 43.4k | 27k | 31.9k – 37.3k |
| 2030 | 33.7k | 45k | 23.8k | 29.6k – 37.7k |
| 2035 | 31.2k | 47.3k | 17.3k | 24.3k – 38.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed204.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 208.08 | 224.46 | 189.18 | 201.63 – 214.53 |
| 2028 | 211.24 | 239.62 | 178.5 | 195.61 – 226.87 |
| 2030 | 214.4 | 251.04 | 172.13 | 190.06 – 238.75 |
| 2035 | 222.31 | 274.12 | 162.53 | 176.19 – 268.42 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.87(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23.96 | 29.14 | 18.78 | 22.78 – 25.14 |
| 2027 | 26.13 | 35.1 | 17.17 | 23.51 – 28.76 |
| 2029 | 28.31 | 39.88 | 16.73 | 24.27 – 32.34 |
| 2034 | 33.74 | 50.11 | 17.37 | 25.83 – 41.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.35 | 5.67 | 0.87 | 2.78 – 3.92 |
| 2028 | 3.96 | 7.97 | -0.34 | 2.88 – 5.04 |
| 2030 | 4.57 | 9.75 | -0.99 | 3.05 – 6.08 |
| 2035 | 6.09 | 13.42 | -1.77 | 3.49 – 8.68 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.81(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 27.99 | 29.46 | 26.72 | 27.12 – 28.86 |
| 2027 | 28.42 | 29.91 | 27.13 | 26.32 – 30.52 |
| 2029 | 28.85 | 30.36 | 27.54 | 25.57 – 32.12 |
| 2034 | 29.92 | 31.86 | 28.24 | 23.71 – 36.13 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed123.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 123.5m | 129.3m | 118.1m | 119.7m – 127.3m |
| 2028 | 122.8m | 128.6m | 117.4m | 113.8m – 131.9m |
| 2030 | 122.2m | 127.9m | 116.8m | 108.3m – 136m |
| 2035 | 120.5m | 126.2m | 115.2m | 95.5m – 145.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.29 | 9.01 | -4.51 | 0.3 – 2.27 |
| 2028 | 1.66 | 15 | -8.37 | -0.09 – 3.41 |
| 2030 | 2.04 | 15 | -10 | -0.28 – 4.36 |
| 2035 | 2.98 | 15 | -10 | -0.55 – 6.51 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3T | 1.4T | 1.1T | 1.2T – 1.3T |
| 2028 | 1.3T | 1.6T | 960.8bn | 1.2T – 1.4T |
| 2030 | 1.3T | 1.7T | 880bn | 1.1T – 1.4T |
| 2035 | 1.3T | 1.8T | 736.6bn | 999.2bn – 1.6T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.33 | 18.19 | 10.47 | 13.51 – 15.15 |
| 2028 | 14.71 | 21.4 | 8.02 | 12.98 – 16.44 |
| 2030 | 14.9 | 23.53 | 6.27 | 12.38 – 17.41 |
| 2035 | 15.05 | 27.25 | 2.84 | 10.77 – 19.32 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4T | 1.6T | 1.2T | 1.3T – 1.4T |
| 2028 | 1.4T | 1.8T | 1.1T | 1.3T – 1.6T |
| 2030 | 1.5T | 1.9T | 1T | 1.3T – 1.7T |
| 2035 | 1.6T | 2.2T | 974.9bn | 1.2T – 1.9T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.37 | 2.57 | 2.18 | 2.3 – 2.45 |
| 2028 | 2.22 | 2.46 | 1.98 | 2.05 – 2.38 |
| 2030 | 2.06 | 2.37 | 1.75 | 1.83 – 2.3 |
| 2035 | 1.67 | 2.11 | 1.24 | 1.32 – 2.02 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/JPN · API docs
