Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Kazakhstan: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 36/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.61 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.28, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.28) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+1% skill vs naive; realized ±4.4867 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Kazakhstan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.73 | 6.79 | -8.24 | -2.28 – 0.82 |
| 2029 | -0.18 | 12.84 | -13.2 | -2.89 – 2.52 |
| 2031 | 0.36 | 17.17 | -16.45 | -3.15 – 3.87 |
| 2036 | 1.73 | 25.5 | -22.05 | -3.4 – 6.85 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.59(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31.56 | 42.6 | 22 | 29.48 – 33.64 |
| 2027 | 31.51 | 50.63 | 14.95 | 27.27 – 35.76 |
| 2029 | 31.47 | 56.14 | 10.08 | 25.42 – 37.51 |
| 2034 | 31.34 | 66.24 | 1.1 | 21.34 – 41.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed306.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 383.1bn | 421.9bn | 349.5bn | 371.3bn – 395bn |
| 2029 | 441.8bn | 508.9bn | 383.6bn | 409.1bn – 474.5bn |
| 2031 | 500.5bn | 587.2bn | 425.3bn | 443.6bn – 557.3bn |
| 2036 | 647.1bn | 769.7bn | 540.9bn | 512.9bn – 781.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.61 | 7.68 | 1.95 | 4.02 – 5.19 |
| 2029 | 4.61 | 9.92 | 0 | 3.5 – 5.71 |
| 2031 | 4.6 | 11.46 | -1.34 | 3.09 – 6.12 |
| 2036 | 4.6 | 12 | -3.81 | 2.24 – 6.95 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.5k | 20.6k | 16.7k | 17.9k – 19.1k |
| 2029 | 21.2k | 24.7k | 18.1k | 19.6k – 22.8k |
| 2031 | 23.9k | 28.5k | 19.9k | 21.1k – 26.6k |
| 2036 | 30.5k | 37k | 24.9k | 24.2k – 36.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 25.42 | 29.55 | 20.65 | 24.38 – 26.46 |
| 2029 | 26.46 | 33.62 | 18.2 | 24.09 – 28.83 |
| 2031 | 27.5 | 36.74 | 16.84 | 23.88 – 31.12 |
| 2036 | 30.1 | 43.17 | 15.02 | 23.27 – 36.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.57(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.7 | 29.21 | 22.18 | 24.75 – 26.65 |
| 2027 | 25.95 | 32.04 | 19.86 | 23.77 – 28.13 |
| 2029 | 26.2 | 34.06 | 18.34 | 22.9 – 29.5 |
| 2034 | 26.82 | 37.94 | 15.71 | 20.83 – 32.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.33 | 18.91 | 1.13 | 8.26 – 12.4 |
| 2029 | 9.36 | 24.24 | -5 | 5.62 – 13.11 |
| 2031 | 8.4 | 27.6 | -5 | 3.47 – 13.33 |
| 2036 | 5.99 | 33.15 | -5 | -0.99 – 12.97 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.32(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24.78 | 28.16 | 21.84 | 23.9 – 25.66 |
| 2027 | 25.85 | 31.71 | 20.77 | 23.77 – 27.93 |
| 2029 | 26.92 | 34.49 | 20.36 | 23.69 – 30.16 |
| 2034 | 29.6 | 40.31 | 20.32 | 23.33 – 35.87 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 20.5m | 21.4m | 19.6m | 19.8m – 21.1m |
| 2029 | 20.2m | 21.2m | 19.3m | 18.7m – 21.7m |
| 2031 | 19.9m | 20.9m | 19m | 17.7m – 22.2m |
| 2036 | 19.2m | 20.2m | 18.3m | 15.2m – 23.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.7 | 15 | 3.06 | 9.25 – 12.14 |
| 2028 | 14.63 | 15 | 1.41 | 11.72 – 15 |
| 2030 | 15 | 15 | -2.07 | 10.96 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -9.13 | 8.58 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.4bn | 27.1bn | 11.6bn | 17.9bn – 20.9bn |
| 2028 | 22.2bn | 35.6bn | 8.8bn | 19.1bn – 25.3bn |
| 2030 | 25bn | 42.3bn | 7.7bn | 20.3bn – 29.6bn |
| 2035 | 32bn | 56.4bn | 7.5bn | 23.1bn – 40.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.86 | 9.36 | 4.35 | 6.36 – 7.35 |
| 2028 | 6.23 | 10.57 | 1.88 | 5.26 – 7.19 |
| 2030 | 5.92 | 11.52 | 0.31 | 4.59 – 7.25 |
| 2035 | 5.67 | 13.6 | 0 | 3.55 – 7.79 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.2bn | 86.7bn | 57.7bn | 68.8bn – 75.6bn |
| 2028 | 87.7bn | 112.8bn | 62.6bn | 79.6bn – 95.7bn |
| 2030 | 103.2bn | 135.6bn | 70.8bn | 90bn – 116.4bn |
| 2035 | 141.9bn | 187.8bn | 96.1bn | 112.2bn – 171.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.45 | 4.97 | 3.94 | 4.3 – 4.6 |
| 2029 | 4.16 | 5.06 | 3.27 | 3.83 – 4.5 |
| 2031 | 3.87 | 5.03 | 2.71 | 3.38 – 4.36 |
| 2036 | 3.14 | 4.77 | 1.51 | 2.39 – 3.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/KAZ · API docs
