Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Kazakhstan: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 36/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 7.3 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.28, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.24) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+1% skill vs naive; realized ±2.9007 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Kazakhstan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed0.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.09 | 3.3 | -11.49 | -5.67 – -2.52 |
| 2028 | -4.08 | 8.72 | -16.88 | -6.89 – -1.27 |
| 2030 | -4.07 | 12.46 | -20.6 | -7.77 – -0.37 |
| 2035 | -4.04 | 19.33 | -27.42 | -9.46 – 1.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.59(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31.56 | 42.6 | 22 | 29.48 – 33.64 |
| 2027 | 31.51 | 50.63 | 14.95 | 27.27 – 35.76 |
| 2029 | 31.47 | 56.14 | 10.08 | 25.42 – 37.51 |
| 2034 | 31.34 | 66.24 | 1.1 | 21.34 – 41.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed306.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 326.1bn | 359bn | 297.6bn | 316bn – 336.2bn |
| 2028 | 375.2bn | 432.2bn | 325.9bn | 347.5bn – 403bn |
| 2030 | 424.4bn | 498bn | 360.7bn | 376.2bn – 472.6bn |
| 2035 | 547.4bn | 651.4bn | 457.2bn | 433.8bn – 660.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.3 | 12 | 2.34 | 6.23 – 8.37 |
| 2028 | 9.23 | 12 | 0.64 | 7.14 – 11.33 |
| 2030 | 11.16 | 12 | 0.08 | 8.14 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -3.68 | 7.06 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.5k | 17.1k | 14.1k | 15k – 16k |
| 2028 | 17.6k | 20.4k | 15.2k | 16.3k – 18.9k |
| 2030 | 19.7k | 23.3k | 16.5k | 17.4k – 21.9k |
| 2035 | 24.9k | 30k | 20.4k | 19.7k – 30k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.88 | 29.03 | 20.1 | 23.85 – 25.92 |
| 2028 | 26.04 | 33.23 | 17.76 | 23.69 – 28.4 |
| 2030 | 27.21 | 36.48 | 16.51 | 23.6 – 30.81 |
| 2035 | 30.11 | 43.23 | 14.98 | 23.28 – 36.95 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.57(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.7 | 29.21 | 22.18 | 24.75 – 26.65 |
| 2027 | 25.95 | 32.04 | 19.86 | 23.77 – 28.13 |
| 2029 | 26.2 | 34.06 | 18.34 | 22.9 – 29.5 |
| 2034 | 26.82 | 37.94 | 15.71 | 20.83 – 32.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.94 | 21.47 | 3.8 | 10.84 – 15.04 |
| 2028 | 16.72 | 31.5 | 0.89 | 12.64 – 20.8 |
| 2030 | 20.51 | 39.59 | 0.06 | 14.64 – 26.38 |
| 2035 | 29.97 | 50 | 1.06 | 19.19 – 40.75 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.32(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24.78 | 28.16 | 21.84 | 23.9 – 25.66 |
| 2027 | 25.85 | 31.71 | 20.77 | 23.77 – 27.93 |
| 2029 | 26.92 | 34.49 | 20.36 | 23.69 – 30.16 |
| 2034 | 29.6 | 40.31 | 20.32 | 23.33 – 35.87 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.8m | 21.7m | 19.9m | 20.1m – 21.4m |
| 2028 | 21m | 22m | 20.1m | 19.5m – 22.6m |
| 2030 | 21.3m | 22.3m | 20.4m | 18.9m – 23.7m |
| 2035 | 22m | 23.1m | 21m | 17.4m – 26.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.7 | 15 | 3.06 | 9.25 – 12.14 |
| 2028 | 14.63 | 15 | 1.41 | 11.72 – 15 |
| 2030 | 15 | 15 | -2.07 | 10.96 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -9.13 | 8.58 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.4bn | 27.1bn | 11.6bn | 17.9bn – 20.9bn |
| 2028 | 22.2bn | 35.6bn | 8.8bn | 19.1bn – 25.3bn |
| 2030 | 25bn | 42.3bn | 7.7bn | 20.3bn – 29.6bn |
| 2035 | 32bn | 56.4bn | 7.5bn | 23.1bn – 40.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.86 | 9.36 | 4.35 | 6.36 – 7.35 |
| 2028 | 6.23 | 10.57 | 1.88 | 5.26 – 7.19 |
| 2030 | 5.92 | 11.52 | 0.31 | 4.59 – 7.25 |
| 2035 | 5.67 | 13.6 | 0 | 3.55 – 7.79 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.2bn | 86.7bn | 57.7bn | 68.8bn – 75.6bn |
| 2028 | 87.7bn | 112.8bn | 62.6bn | 79.6bn – 95.7bn |
| 2030 | 103.2bn | 135.6bn | 70.8bn | 90bn – 116.4bn |
| 2035 | 141.9bn | 187.8bn | 96.1bn | 112.2bn – 171.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.69 | 5.55 | 3.83 | 4.48 – 4.9 |
| 2028 | 4.53 | 6.02 | 3.04 | 4.08 – 4.97 |
| 2030 | 4.37 | 6.29 | 2.44 | 3.72 – 5.01 |
| 2035 | 3.96 | 6.68 | 1.24 | 2.91 – 5.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/KAZ · API docs
