Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Kenya: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 38/100); the economy is in slowdown; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.47 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.24, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.26) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±0.03 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Kenya: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.72 | -0.32 | -5.11 | -3.25 – -2.18 |
| 2028 | -2.55 | 1.6 | -6.7 | -3.52 – -1.58 |
| 2030 | -2.38 | 2.98 | -7.74 | -3.67 – -1.1 |
| 2035 | -1.97 | 5.62 | -9.55 | -3.83 – -0.1 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.58 | 19.38 | 14.15 | 15.91 – 17.24 |
| 2028 | 18.21 | 23.05 | 14 | 16.64 – 19.77 |
| 2030 | 19.83 | 26.09 | 14.41 | 17.35 – 22.31 |
| 2035 | 23.9 | 32.75 | 16.23 | 18.81 – 28.99 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed135.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 141.1bn | 156bn | 128.1bn | 136.7bn – 145.5bn |
| 2028 | 154.5bn | 180.4bn | 132.1bn | 143.1bn – 165.9bn |
| 2030 | 167.9bn | 201.3bn | 138.9bn | 148.8bn – 186.9bn |
| 2035 | 201.4bn | 248.6bn | 160.4bn | 159.6bn – 243.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.47 | 12 | -2.16 | 3.12 – 5.82 |
| 2028 | 4.16 | 12 | -7.33 | 1.75 – 6.56 |
| 2030 | 3.84 | 12 | -10 | 0.68 – 7 |
| 2035 | 3.06 | 12 | -10 | -1.46 – 7.58 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4k | 2.7k | 2.2k | 2.3k – 2.5k |
| 2028 | 2.6k | 3k | 2.2k | 2.4k – 2.8k |
| 2030 | 2.7k | 3.3k | 2.2k | 2.4k – 3k |
| 2035 | 3.1k | 4k | 2.4k | 2.5k – 3.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 73.68 | 80.89 | 65.36 | 71.39 – 75.97 |
| 2028 | 78.45 | 90.94 | 64.04 | 72.65 – 84.25 |
| 2030 | 83.22 | 99.34 | 64.61 | 73.77 – 92.66 |
| 2035 | 95.13 | 117.93 | 68.82 | 75.4 – 114.86 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.13 | 25.59 | 18.67 | 21.25 – 23.02 |
| 2028 | 22.88 | 28.88 | 16.88 | 20.87 – 24.9 |
| 2030 | 23.63 | 31.38 | 15.89 | 20.56 – 26.71 |
| 2035 | 25.51 | 36.46 | 14.56 | 19.75 – 31.26 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.17 | 7.43 | 0.69 | 3.38 – 4.96 |
| 2028 | 3.58 | 9.22 | -2.45 | 2.16 – 5.01 |
| 2030 | 3 | 10.27 | -4.8 | 1.14 – 4.85 |
| 2035 | 1.52 | 11.81 | -5 | -1 – 4.05 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.74 | 19.04 | 16.61 | 17.19 – 18.29 |
| 2028 | 17.29 | 19.54 | 15.33 | 16.01 – 18.56 |
| 2030 | 16.83 | 19.74 | 14.31 | 14.92 – 18.75 |
| 2035 | 15.71 | 19.82 | 12.14 | 12.45 – 18.97 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.2m | 60m | 54.7m | 55.5m – 59m |
| 2028 | 58.5m | 61.2m | 55.9m | 54.1m – 62.8m |
| 2030 | 59.7m | 62.5m | 57m | 52.9m – 66.4m |
| 2035 | 62.7m | 65.7m | 59.9m | 49.7m – 75.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.59 | 10.51 | -5.11 | 0.44 – 2.73 |
| 2028 | 1.25 | 15 | -10 | -0.75 – 3.24 |
| 2030 | 0.91 | 15 | -10 | -1.67 – 3.48 |
| 2035 | 0.06 | 15 | -10 | -3.63 – 3.75 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.3bn | 16.3bn | 10.3bn | 12.6bn – 14bn |
| 2028 | 15.5bn | 20.6bn | 10.4bn | 14bn – 17bn |
| 2030 | 17.7bn | 24.3bn | 11.1bn | 15.3bn – 20.1bn |
| 2035 | 23.2bn | 32.6bn | 13.8bn | 18.1bn – 28.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.54 | 5.88 | 3.2 | 4.26 – 4.82 |
| 2028 | 4.43 | 6.75 | 2.11 | 3.86 – 5 |
| 2030 | 4.38 | 7.37 | 1.39 | 3.57 – 5.19 |
| 2035 | 4.34 | 8.57 | 0.1 | 2.99 – 5.68 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.3bn | 16.3bn | 10.3bn | 12.6bn – 14bn |
| 2028 | 15.5bn | 20.6bn | 10.4bn | 14bn – 17bn |
| 2030 | 17.7bn | 24.3bn | 11.1bn | 15.3bn – 20.1bn |
| 2035 | 23.2bn | 32.6bn | 13.9bn | 18.1bn – 28.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4 | 5.67 | 5.14 | 5.24 – 5.57 |
| 2028 | 5.31 | 5.65 | 4.98 | 4.92 – 5.71 |
| 2030 | 5.22 | 5.66 | 4.79 | 4.63 – 5.81 |
| 2035 | 4.99 | 5.61 | 4.38 | 3.96 – 6.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/KEN · API docs
