Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Kyrgyz Republic: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 12 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.22) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±5.9 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Kyrgyz Republic: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-7.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -27.17 | 6.38 | -30 | -30 – -19.89 |
| 2028 | -30 | 28.1 | -30 | -30 – -16.7 |
| 2030 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -12.29 |
| 2035 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -3.55 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.59 | 49.33 | 8.75 | 24.04 – 31.14 |
| 2028 | 29.15 | 66.81 | 0 | 22.37 – 35.93 |
| 2030 | 30.7 | 79.32 | 0 | 21.3 – 40.11 |
| 2035 | 34.6 | 103.35 | 0 | 19.24 – 49.95 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.9bn | 28.5bn | 21.8bn | 24.1bn – 25.7bn |
| 2028 | 30.6bn | 36.8bn | 25.3bn | 28.4bn – 32.9bn |
| 2030 | 36.4bn | 44.4bn | 29.4bn | 32.2bn – 40.5bn |
| 2035 | 50.7bn | 62bn | 40.9bn | 40.2bn – 61.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 12 | 3.38 | 10.15 – 12 |
| 2028 | 12 | 12 | -2.93 | 8.55 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -7.27 | 7.33 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.84 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.4k | 3.9k | 2.9k | 3.3k – 3.5k |
| 2028 | 4.1k | 4.9k | 3.3k | 3.8k – 4.4k |
| 2030 | 4.8k | 5.9k | 3.9k | 4.3k – 5.4k |
| 2035 | 6.6k | 8.2k | 5.3k | 5.2k – 8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.31 | 45.62 | 19.11 | 30.89 – 35.74 |
| 2028 | 27.94 | 49.26 | 3.34 | 23.32 – 32.56 |
| 2030 | 22.56 | 50.08 | 0 | 16.52 – 28.6 |
| 2035 | 9.12 | 48.05 | 0 | 1.67 – 16.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 68.71 | 96.96 | 40.45 | 63.28 – 74.13 |
| 2028 | 74.93 | 123.87 | 25.99 | 63.84 – 86.02 |
| 2030 | 81.15 | 144.33 | 17.97 | 64.99 – 97.32 |
| 2035 | 96.71 | 150 | 7.36 | 67.56 – 125.86 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.08 | 18.59 | 0.95 | 8.03 – 12.12 |
| 2028 | 14.58 | 29.33 | -1.23 | 10.61 – 18.55 |
| 2030 | 19.08 | 38.13 | -1.32 | 13.34 – 24.83 |
| 2035 | 30.34 | 50 | 1.49 | 19.52 – 41.17 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.04 | 30.57 | 22.12 | 24.98 – 27.1 |
| 2028 | 26.64 | 34.48 | 19.85 | 24.24 – 29.04 |
| 2030 | 27.24 | 37.36 | 18.47 | 23.62 – 30.87 |
| 2035 | 28.74 | 43.06 | 16.34 | 22.1 – 35.39 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.3m | 7.7m | 7m | 7.1m – 7.5m |
| 2028 | 7.4m | 7.8m | 7.1m | 6.9m – 8m |
| 2030 | 7.6m | 7.9m | 7.2m | 6.7m – 8.4m |
| 2035 | 7.9m | 8.3m | 7.6m | 6.3m – 9.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.74 | 15 | 1.25 | 8.17 – 11.31 |
| 2028 | 12.21 | 15 | -2.5 | 9.17 – 15 |
| 2030 | 14.67 | 15 | -4.31 | 10.34 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 8.13 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.9bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.8bn | 2.4bn | 1.2bn | 1.7bn – 1.9bn |
| 2027 | 1.6bn | 2.7bn | 565m | 1.4bn – 1.9bn |
| 2029 | 1.5bn | 2.9bn | 84.6m | 1.1bn – 1.8bn |
| 2034 | 1bn | 3bn | 0 | 580.7m – 1.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.95(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.12 | 7.36 | 0.88 | 3.56 – 4.68 |
| 2027 | 4.32 | 9.93 | 0 | 3.25 – 5.38 |
| 2029 | 4.42 | 11.66 | 0 | 2.95 – 5.88 |
| 2034 | 4.49 | 14.74 | 0 | 2.21 – 6.78 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.5bn | 6.7bn | 4.3bn | 5.2bn – 5.8bn |
| 2027 | 6.6bn | 8.7bn | 4.5bn | 5.9bn – 7.2bn |
| 2029 | 7.6bn | 10.4bn | 4.9bn | 6.6bn – 8.7bn |
| 2034 | 10.3bn | 14.1bn | 6.5bn | 8.1bn – 12.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 3.97 | 2.03 | 2.81 – 3.2 |
| 2028 | 1.95 | 3.63 | 0.28 | 1.6 – 2.3 |
| 2030 | 0.91 | 3.07 | 0 | 0.49 – 1.32 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.06 | 0 | 0 – 0.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/KGZ · API docs
