Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Kiribati: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 41/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 12 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.7 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.18, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.22) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±1.6046 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Kiribati: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-17.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -27.78 | -4.2 | -30 | -30 – -22.52 |
| 2028 | -30 | 10.84 | -30 | -30 – -20.23 |
| 2030 | -30 | 22.72 | -30 | -30 – -16.84 |
| 2035 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -9.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.52(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.26 | 12.19 | 0 | 1.93 – 4.58 |
| 2027 | 0.73 | 16.2 | 0 | 0 – 2.99 |
| 2029 | 0 | 19.97 | 0 | 0 – 2.93 |
| 2034 | 0 | 28.24 | 0 | 0 – 4.19 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed349.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 369.8m | 430.6m | 317.1m | 356.6m – 383m |
| 2028 | 419.6m | 525m | 328.3m | 387m – 452.3m |
| 2030 | 469.5m | 605.6m | 351.6m | 415.7m – 523.3m |
| 2035 | 594.1m | 786.6m | 427.4m | 470.9m – 717.4m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.7 | 12 | -3.68 | 3.02 – 6.39 |
| 2028 | 5.69 | 12 | -8.84 | 2.62 – 8.76 |
| 2030 | 6.68 | 12 | -10 | 2.53 – 10.82 |
| 2035 | 9.14 | 12 | -10 | 2.58 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.7k | 3.2k | 2.3k | 2.6k – 2.8k |
| 2028 | 3k | 3.8k | 2.3k | 2.7k – 3.2k |
| 2030 | 3.3k | 4.3k | 2.4k | 2.9k – 3.7k |
| 2035 | 4.1k | 5.5k | 2.8k | 3.2k – 4.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 2.36 | 5.85 – 7.16 |
| 2028 | 3.51 | 9.73 | 0 | 2.38 – 4.63 |
| 2030 | 0.52 | 8.55 | 0 | 0 – 1.83 |
| 2035 | 0 | 11.36 | 0 | 0 – 1.91 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed97.59(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 100.64 | 127.68 | 73.61 | 94.89 – 106.39 |
| 2027 | 106.74 | 150 | 59.91 | 94.45 – 119.03 |
| 2029 | 112.84 | 150 | 52.39 | 94.56 – 131.12 |
| 2034 | 128.08 | 150 | 42.59 | 94.5 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.46(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.6 | 17.04 | -0.44 | 6.59 – 10.61 |
| 2028 | 14.26 | 28.88 | -1.4 | 10.34 – 18.19 |
| 2030 | 19.93 | 38.8 | -0.3 | 14.15 – 25.7 |
| 2035 | 34.08 | 50 | 5.48 | 22.71 – 45.45 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.04(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 30.97 | 39.42 | 23.65 | 29.27 – 32.67 |
| 2027 | 35.92 | 50.55 | 23.24 | 32.11 – 39.74 |
| 2029 | 40.88 | 59.77 | 24.51 | 34.91 – 46.85 |
| 2034 | 53.27 | 70 | 30.11 | 40.93 – 65.61 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed136.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 135.9k | 142.4k | 130k | 131.7k – 140.2k |
| 2028 | 138.1k | 144.6k | 132k | 127.9k – 148.3k |
| 2030 | 140.3k | 146.9k | 134.1k | 124.3k – 156.2k |
| 2035 | 145.7k | 152.6k | 139.3k | 115.5k – 175.9k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/KIR · API docs
