Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Kiribati: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 35/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 12 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.4 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.28) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±6.9294 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Kiribati: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2027, 2029, 2031, 2034, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-17.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -26.06 | -3.35 | -30 | -30 – -21.01 |
| 2029 | -30 | 9.34 | -30 | -30 – -20.53 |
| 2031 | -30 | 20.78 | -30 | -30 – -17.24 |
| 2036 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -10.54 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.52(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.26 | 12.19 | 0 | 1.93 – 4.58 |
| 2027 | 0.73 | 16.2 | 0 | 0 – 2.99 |
| 2029 | 0 | 19.97 | 0 | 0 – 2.93 |
| 2034 | 0 | 28.24 | 0 | 0 – 4.19 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed349.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 424.9m | 482.9m | 374.7m | 411.2m – 438.6m |
| 2029 | 485.3m | 585.6m | 398.3m | 449.4m – 521.2m |
| 2031 | 545.6m | 675.2m | 433.3m | 483.6m – 607.5m |
| 2036 | 696.4m | 879.6m | 537.6m | 551.9m – 840.8m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.4 | 5.82 | -0.57 | 1.79 – 3.01 |
| 2029 | 0.81 | 6.73 | -4.33 | -0.23 – 1.84 |
| 2031 | -0.78 | 6.87 | -7.42 | -2.14 – 0.57 |
| 2036 | -4.77 | 6.06 | -10 | -7.33 – -2.2 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.2k | 3.7k | 2.8k | 3.1k – 3.3k |
| 2029 | 3.7k | 4.5k | 2.9k | 3.4k – 3.9k |
| 2031 | 4.1k | 5.2k | 3.1k | 3.6k – 4.6k |
| 2036 | 5.2k | 6.7k | 3.9k | 4.1k – 6.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.08 | 9.73 | 1.87 | 5.42 – 6.74 |
| 2029 | 2.83 | 9.15 | 0 | 1.72 – 3.94 |
| 2031 | 0 | 8.16 | 0 | 0 – 1.33 |
| 2036 | 0 | 11.53 | 0 | 0 – 1.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed97.59(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 100.64 | 127.68 | 73.61 | 94.89 – 106.39 |
| 2027 | 106.74 | 150 | 59.91 | 94.45 – 119.03 |
| 2029 | 112.84 | 150 | 52.39 | 94.56 – 131.12 |
| 2034 | 128.08 | 150 | 42.59 | 94.5 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.46(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.48 | 12.19 | -5 | 1.49 – 5.47 |
| 2029 | 0.68 | 15.77 | -5 | -2.71 – 4.07 |
| 2031 | -2.12 | 17.36 | -5 | -5 – 2.37 |
| 2036 | -5 | 22.55 | -5 | -5 – 1.91 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.04(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 30.97 | 39.42 | 23.65 | 29.27 – 32.67 |
| 2027 | 35.92 | 50.55 | 23.24 | 32.11 – 39.74 |
| 2029 | 40.88 | 59.77 | 24.51 | 34.91 – 46.85 |
| 2034 | 53.27 | 70 | 30.11 | 40.93 – 65.61 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed136.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 129.7k | 135.8k | 124k | 125.7k – 133.7k |
| 2029 | 123.7k | 131.4k | 116.5k | 114.5k – 132.8k |
| 2031 | 117.6k | 127.6k | 108.4k | 104.3k – 131k |
| 2036 | 102.6k | 116.7k | 89.4k | 81.3k – 123.8k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/KIR · API docs
