Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
St. Kitts and Nevis: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 31/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 12 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.34 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.38, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.38) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+4% skill vs naive; realized ±1.5409 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
St. Kitts and Nevis: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-16.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -15.78 | -6.66 | -24.89 | -17.89 – -13.66 |
| 2028 | -18.53 | -2.74 | -30 | -22.63 – -14.42 |
| 2030 | -21.28 | -0.9 | -30 | -27.13 – -15.42 |
| 2035 | -28.15 | 0.66 | -30 | -30 – -17.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2bn | 1.4bn | 1bn | 1.2bn – 1.3bn |
| 2028 | 1.3bn | 1.7bn | 981.8m | 1.2bn – 1.4bn |
| 2030 | 1.4bn | 1.9bn | 979.1m | 1.2bn – 1.6bn |
| 2035 | 1.6bn | 2.4bn | 1bn | 1.3bn – 2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.34 | 12 | -10 | 0.35 – 6.33 |
| 2028 | 4.92 | 12 | -10 | -0.4 – 10.24 |
| 2030 | 6.5 | 12 | -10 | -0.58 – 12 |
| 2035 | 10.46 | 12 | -10 | -0.5 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26k | 30.7k | 21.9k | 25k – 27k |
| 2028 | 27.9k | 36.1k | 20.9k | 25.6k – 30.3k |
| 2030 | 29.9k | 40.4k | 20.7k | 26.2k – 33.5k |
| 2035 | 34.7k | 49.7k | 21.8k | 27.4k – 42.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 59.15 | 69.97 | 46.67 | 56.54 – 61.76 |
| 2028 | 60.06 | 78.8 | 38.43 | 54.29 – 65.82 |
| 2030 | 60.96 | 85.16 | 33.04 | 52.36 – 69.56 |
| 2035 | 63.23 | 97.45 | 23.74 | 47.85 – 78.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.56(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.86 | 4.24 | -2.77 | 0.09 – 1.63 |
| 2028 | 0.44 | 6.3 | -5 | -0.91 – 1.79 |
| 2030 | 0.02 | 7.59 | -5 | -1.74 – 1.78 |
| 2035 | -1.03 | 9.67 | -5 | -3.57 – 1.51 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46.9k | 49.1k | 44.9k | 45.5k – 48.4k |
| 2028 | 47k | 49.2k | 44.9k | 43.5k – 50.5k |
| 2030 | 47.1k | 49.3k | 45k | 41.7k – 52.4k |
| 2035 | 47.3k | 49.5k | 45.2k | 37.5k – 57.1k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed282.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 277.2m | 315.4m | 238.9m | 266.9m – 287.5m |
| 2028 | 262.4m | 328.6m | 196.1m | 239.6m – 285.1m |
| 2030 | 247.5m | 333m | 162.1m | 214.7m – 280.4m |
| 2035 | 210.5m | 331.4m | 89.6m | 158.3m – 262.7m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.02 | 8.01 | 2.03 | 4.48 – 5.56 |
| 2028 | 5.7 | 10.89 | 0.52 | 4.64 – 6.77 |
| 2030 | 6.04 | 12.73 | 0 | 4.53 – 7.55 |
| 2035 | 6.31 | 15.77 | 0 | 3.85 – 8.77 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed282.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 277.2m | 315.4m | 238.9m | 266.9m – 287.5m |
| 2028 | 262.4m | 328.6m | 196.1m | 239.6m – 285.1m |
| 2030 | 247.5m | 333m | 162.1m | 214.7m – 280.4m |
| 2035 | 210.5m | 331.4m | 89.6m | 158.3m – 262.7m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/KNA · API docs
