Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
St. Kitts and Nevis: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 49/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 12 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.39 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.18) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+4% skill vs naive; realized ±7.7316 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
St. Kitts and Nevis: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-15.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -16.87 | -7.91 | -25.82 | -18.96 – -14.77 |
| 2029 | -19.8 | -4.29 | -30 | -23.92 – -15.68 |
| 2031 | -22.73 | -2.71 | -30 | -28.64 – -16.83 |
| 2036 | -30 | -1.69 | -30 | -30 – -19.42 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.2bn | 1.4bn | 972.9m | 1.1bn – 1.2bn |
| 2029 | 1.2bn | 1.6bn | 893.2m | 1.1bn – 1.3bn |
| 2031 | 1.3bn | 1.8bn | 858.2m | 1.1bn – 1.5bn |
| 2036 | 1.5bn | 2.2bn | 835.9m | 1.1bn – 1.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.39 | 12 | -8.24 | 0.31 – 4.48 |
| 2029 | 3.05 | 12 | -10 | -0.64 – 6.74 |
| 2031 | 3.71 | 12 | -10 | -1.16 – 8.58 |
| 2036 | 5.35 | 12 | -10 | -1.97 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 22.3k | 27.6k | 17.7k | 21.3k – 23.3k |
| 2029 | 22.7k | 31.9k | 14.8k | 20.5k – 24.9k |
| 2031 | 23.1k | 35k | 12.8k | 19.9k – 26.4k |
| 2036 | 24.1k | 40.9k | 9.6k | 18.3k – 30k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 64.35 | 75.55 | 51.41 | 61.59 – 67.1 |
| 2029 | 65.04 | 84.45 | 42.64 | 58.93 – 71.14 |
| 2031 | 65.73 | 90.79 | 36.81 | 56.61 – 74.84 |
| 2036 | 67.45 | 102.89 | 26.56 | 51.21 – 83.7 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.56(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.6 | 5.42 | -0.42 | 1.93 – 3.26 |
| 2029 | 3.86 | 8.74 | -1.37 | 2.59 – 5.13 |
| 2031 | 5.12 | 11.42 | -1.64 | 3.31 – 6.92 |
| 2036 | 8.27 | 17.18 | -1.28 | 4.97 – 11.57 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 52.5k | 55.5k | 49.7k | 50.9k – 54.1k |
| 2029 | 58.1k | 63.3k | 53.2k | 53.8k – 62.4k |
| 2031 | 63.7k | 70.4k | 57.4k | 56.4k – 70.9k |
| 2036 | 77.6k | 87.2k | 68.7k | 61.5k – 93.7k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed282.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 277.2m | 315.4m | 238.9m | 266.9m – 287.5m |
| 2028 | 262.4m | 328.6m | 196.1m | 239.6m – 285.1m |
| 2030 | 247.5m | 333m | 162.1m | 214.7m – 280.4m |
| 2035 | 210.5m | 331.4m | 89.6m | 158.3m – 262.7m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.02 | 8.01 | 2.03 | 4.48 – 5.56 |
| 2028 | 5.7 | 10.89 | 0.52 | 4.64 – 6.77 |
| 2030 | 6.04 | 12.73 | 0 | 4.53 – 7.55 |
| 2035 | 6.31 | 15.77 | 0 | 3.85 – 8.77 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed282.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 277.2m | 315.4m | 238.9m | 266.9m – 287.5m |
| 2028 | 262.4m | 328.6m | 196.1m | 239.6m – 285.1m |
| 2030 | 247.5m | 333m | 162.1m | 214.7m – 280.4m |
| 2035 | 210.5m | 331.4m | 89.6m | 158.3m – 262.7m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/KNA · API docs
