Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
South Korea: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 32/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.87 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.36, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.36) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±1.027 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
South Korea: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed5.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.78 | 10.42 | 3.15 | 5.94 – 7.63 |
| 2028 | 7.15 | 13.44 | 0.87 | 5.53 – 8.78 |
| 2030 | 7.52 | 15.64 | -0.6 | 5.26 – 9.78 |
| 2035 | 8.45 | 19.93 | -3.04 | 4.75 – 12.14 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.03 | 54.6 | 40.48 | 45.2 – 48.87 |
| 2028 | 49.58 | 62.68 | 38.23 | 45.33 – 53.83 |
| 2030 | 52.12 | 69.03 | 37.47 | 45.54 – 58.71 |
| 2035 | 58.48 | 82.4 | 37.76 | 45.71 – 71.25 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.9T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9T | 2.1T | 1.7T | 1.8T – 1.9T |
| 2028 | 1.9T | 2.3T | 1.6T | 1.8T – 2.1T |
| 2030 | 2T | 2.4T | 1.6T | 1.7T – 2.2T |
| 2035 | 2.1T | 2.7T | 1.5T | 1.6T – 2.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.87 | 6.32 | -3.85 | -0.05 – 1.8 |
| 2028 | 0.51 | 9.95 | -7.68 | -1.11 – 2.13 |
| 2030 | 0.14 | 12 | -10 | -1.97 – 2.25 |
| 2035 | -0.78 | 12 | -10 | -3.81 – 2.26 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.6k | 40.6k | 33.1k | 35.4k – 37.7k |
| 2028 | 37.3k | 44.3k | 31.3k | 34.6k – 40.1k |
| 2030 | 38.1k | 47.1k | 30.3k | 33.8k – 42.4k |
| 2035 | 40k | 52.7k | 29k | 31.7k – 48.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.09 | 57.89 | 49.72 | 52.42 – 55.77 |
| 2028 | 57.68 | 64.25 | 50.1 | 53.42 – 61.95 |
| 2030 | 61.27 | 69.75 | 51.49 | 54.32 – 68.23 |
| 2035 | 70.25 | 82.24 | 56.41 | 55.67 – 84.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.86 | 50.64 | 33.08 | 39.85 – 43.88 |
| 2028 | 44.39 | 59.6 | 29.18 | 39.93 – 48.85 |
| 2030 | 46.92 | 66.55 | 27.28 | 40.16 – 53.68 |
| 2035 | 53.23 | 81 | 25.47 | 40.47 – 66 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.17 | 5.56 | -1.46 | 1.39 – 2.96 |
| 2028 | 1.89 | 7.77 | -4.4 | 0.5 – 3.29 |
| 2030 | 1.62 | 9.2 | -5 | -0.19 – 3.43 |
| 2035 | 0.92 | 11.64 | -5 | -1.62 – 3.46 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.74 | 29.66 | 26.07 | 26.88 – 28.6 |
| 2028 | 26.24 | 29.57 | 23.36 | 24.3 – 28.18 |
| 2030 | 24.75 | 29.05 | 21.02 | 21.94 – 27.56 |
| 2035 | 21.01 | 27.09 | 15.74 | 16.65 – 25.37 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.7m | 54.1m | 49.4m | 50.1m – 53.3m |
| 2028 | 51.6m | 54m | 49.3m | 47.8m – 55.4m |
| 2030 | 51.5m | 54m | 49.3m | 45.7m – 57.4m |
| 2035 | 51.3m | 53.8m | 49.1m | 40.7m – 62m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.03 | 6.04 | -2.73 | 0.39 – 1.67 |
| 2028 | 1.46 | 10.13 | -5.05 | 0.3 – 2.61 |
| 2030 | 1.89 | 13.09 | -6.51 | 0.34 – 3.44 |
| 2035 | 2.97 | 15 | -8.91 | 0.51 – 5.42 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed421.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 422.7bn | 464.9bn | 380.5bn | 409.5bn – 436bn |
| 2028 | 424.6bn | 497.7bn | 351.6bn | 393.1bn – 456.2bn |
| 2030 | 426.5bn | 520.9bn | 332.2bn | 378bn – 475.1bn |
| 2035 | 431.3bn | 564.7bn | 297.8bn | 341.8bn – 520.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.7 | 8.74 | 4.66 | 6.28 – 7.12 |
| 2028 | 6.98 | 10.51 | 3.45 | 6.11 – 7.86 |
| 2030 | 7.12 | 11.68 | 2.56 | 5.85 – 8.39 |
| 2035 | 7.23 | 13.68 | 0.78 | 5.09 – 9.37 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed436.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 439.1bn | 482.3bn | 395.8bn | 425.4bn – 452.7bn |
| 2028 | 445.1bn | 520.1bn | 370.2bn | 412.2bn – 478.1bn |
| 2030 | 451.2bn | 547.9bn | 354.5bn | 400bn – 502.5bn |
| 2035 | 466.4bn | 603.2bn | 329.7bn | 369.7bn – 563.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.43 | 3.01 | 1.84 | 2.3 – 2.55 |
| 2028 | 1.91 | 2.92 | 0.91 | 1.67 – 2.16 |
| 2030 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 1.09 – 1.71 |
| 2035 | 0.12 | 1.95 | 0 | 0 – 0.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/KOR · API docs
