Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Kuwait: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 41/100); the economy is in contraction; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -0.48 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.18, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.34) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+17% skill vs naive; realized ±6.8458 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Kuwait: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed26(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 28.33 | 30 | 9.94 | 24.12 – 30 |
| 2029 | 30 | 30 | -1.85 | 22.06 – 30 |
| 2031 | 30 | 30 | -11.11 | 19.21 – 30 |
| 2036 | 30 | 30 | -28.14 | 13.33 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.76(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 56.55 | 69.91 | 44.98 | 53.74 – 59.37 |
| 2027 | 58.15 | 81.29 | 38.1 | 52.05 – 64.25 |
| 2029 | 59.75 | 89.62 | 33.86 | 50.7 – 68.79 |
| 2034 | 63.74 | 105.98 | 27.13 | 47.51 – 79.97 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed157.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 175.2bn | 225.3bn | 131.9bn | 166.5bn – 184bn |
| 2029 | 182bn | 268.7bn | 106.9bn | 162.9bn – 201bn |
| 2031 | 188.8bn | 300.7bn | 91.8bn | 160.3bn – 217.2bn |
| 2036 | 205.7bn | 363.9bn | 68.5bn | 153.9bn – 257.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.48 | 9.99 | -9.55 | -2.24 – 1.28 |
| 2029 | -0.44 | 12 | -10 | -3.51 – 2.63 |
| 2031 | -0.4 | 12 | -10 | -4.38 – 3.58 |
| 2036 | -0.31 | 12 | -10 | -5.99 – 5.36 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 33.1k | 44.1k | 23.6k | 31.3k – 35k |
| 2029 | 33.1k | 52.1k | 16.6k | 29.3k – 37k |
| 2031 | 33.1k | 57.7k | 11.8k | 27.5k – 38.7k |
| 2036 | 33k | 67.8k | 2.9k | 23.6k – 42.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 22.08 | 31.95 | 10.69 | 20.2 – 23.95 |
| 2029 | 21.63 | 38.72 | 1.9 | 17.96 – 25.29 |
| 2031 | 21.18 | 43.25 | 0 | 16.09 – 26.27 |
| 2036 | 20.05 | 51.26 | 0 | 12.04 – 28.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.23(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 36.69 | 45.86 | 27.51 | 34.69 – 38.68 |
| 2027 | 33.59 | 49.49 | 17.69 | 29.54 – 37.63 |
| 2029 | 30.49 | 51.01 | 9.97 | 24.91 – 36.07 |
| 2034 | 22.75 | 51.77 | 0 | 14.67 – 30.83 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.04 | 4.11 | 1.9 | 2.76 – 3.33 |
| 2029 | 3.66 | 5.51 | 1.68 | 3.07 – 4.24 |
| 2031 | 4.27 | 6.66 | 1.72 | 3.4 – 5.14 |
| 2036 | 5.8 | 9.18 | 2.19 | 4.13 – 7.48 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.75(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16.59 | 20.74 | 12.99 | 15.73 – 17.44 |
| 2027 | 15.8 | 23 | 9.57 | 14.02 – 17.59 |
| 2029 | 15.02 | 24.31 | 6.97 | 12.49 – 17.55 |
| 2034 | 13.07 | 26.2 | 1.69 | 9.1 – 17.03 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.2m | 5.5m | 5m | 5.1m – 5.4m |
| 2029 | 5.6m | 6.1m | 5.2m | 5.2m – 6m |
| 2031 | 6m | 6.6m | 5.5m | 5.3m – 6.7m |
| 2036 | 7m | 7.8m | 6.2m | 5.5m – 8.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.75 | 14.2 | -2.33 | 3.49 – 6.01 |
| 2028 | 8.1 | 15 | -4.18 | 5.66 – 10.53 |
| 2030 | 11.44 | 15 | -4.4 | 7.89 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -7.4 | 8.87 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.6bn | 47.6bn | 31.6bn | 37.7bn – 41.4bn |
| 2028 | 37bn | 50.9bn | 23.2bn | 33.1bn – 40.9bn |
| 2030 | 34.5bn | 52.4bn | 16.6bn | 29bn – 40bn |
| 2035 | 28.1bn | 53.5bn | 2.8bn | 19.8bn – 36.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.64 | 12.57 | 4.7 | 7.89 – 9.38 |
| 2028 | 8.91 | 15.73 | 2.09 | 7.44 – 10.38 |
| 2030 | 9.04 | 17.85 | 0.24 | 6.97 – 11.12 |
| 2035 | 9.15 | 21.61 | 0 | 5.78 – 12.52 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.9bn | 59.4bn | 44.4bn | 49.9bn – 53.9bn |
| 2028 | 52.5bn | 65.6bn | 39.5bn | 48bn – 57.1bn |
| 2030 | 53.2bn | 70bn | 36.4bn | 46.3bn – 60bn |
| 2035 | 54.7bn | 78.5bn | 31bn | 42.3bn – 67.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.92 | 2.62 | 1.22 | 1.78 – 2.06 |
| 2028 | 1.41 | 2.62 | 0.19 | 1.15 – 1.66 |
| 2030 | 0.89 | 2.45 | 0 | 0.57 – 1.21 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.21 | 0 | 0 – 0.5 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/KWT · API docs
