Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Latin America & Caribbean (excluding high income): macro conditions look supportive (pressure 30/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.53 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.40, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.32) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±0.5537 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Latin America & Caribbean (excluding high income): forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed24.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.78 | 27.78 | 22.18 | 23.95 – 25.6 |
| 2028 | 25.21 | 30.4 | 20.71 | 23.26 – 27.16 |
| 2030 | 25.64 | 32.35 | 19.83 | 22.63 – 28.65 |
| 2035 | 26.72 | 36.2 | 18.5 | 21.09 – 32.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.8T | 7.8T | 5.9T | 6.5T – 7T |
| 2028 | 7.4T | 9.3T | 5.8T | 6.9T – 8T |
| 2030 | 8.1T | 10.5T | 6T | 7.2T – 9T |
| 2035 | 9.7T | 13.1T | 6.8T | 7.7T – 11.7T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.53 | 12 | -8.45 | 0.37 – 4.68 |
| 2028 | 3.2 | 12 | -10 | -0.61 – 7.01 |
| 2030 | 3.88 | 12 | -10 | -1.15 – 8.91 |
| 2035 | 5.57 | 12 | -10 | -2 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.8k | 12.5k | 9.2k | 10.4k – 11.1k |
| 2028 | 11.7k | 14.7k | 9.1k | 10.8k – 12.6k |
| 2030 | 12.6k | 16.5k | 9.2k | 11.2k – 14.1k |
| 2035 | 15k | 20.5k | 10.2k | 11.9k – 18.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.52 | 29.86 | 21.19 | 24.45 – 26.6 |
| 2028 | 25.99 | 33.49 | 18.49 | 23.6 – 28.39 |
| 2030 | 26.46 | 36.15 | 16.78 | 22.86 – 30.06 |
| 2035 | 27.63 | 41.33 | 13.93 | 21.11 – 34.15 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.08 | 8.78 | -3.03 | 1.76 – 4.39 |
| 2028 | 2.15 | 12.02 | -5 | -0.15 – 4.44 |
| 2030 | 1.21 | 13.96 | -5 | -1.71 – 4.14 |
| 2035 | -1.11 | 16.92 | -5 | -5 – 3.06 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.32 | 19.72 | 17.11 | 17.75 – 18.89 |
| 2028 | 18.13 | 20.55 | 16.04 | 16.79 – 19.47 |
| 2030 | 17.94 | 21.06 | 15.24 | 15.9 – 19.98 |
| 2035 | 17.47 | 21.88 | 13.64 | 13.84 – 21.09 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed626.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 625.7m | 655.2m | 598.2m | 606.3m – 645.1m |
| 2028 | 630.3m | 660.1m | 602.7m | 583.7m – 677m |
| 2030 | 635m | 665m | 607.1m | 562.9m – 707.1m |
| 2035 | 646.7m | 677.2m | 618.3m | 512.5m – 780.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.91 | 3.17 | -0.78 | 0.62 – 1.21 |
| 2028 | 1.5 | 5.42 | -1.43 | 0.94 – 2.06 |
| 2030 | 2.09 | 7.15 | -1.7 | 1.29 – 2.89 |
| 2035 | 3.56 | 10.71 | -1.8 | 2.1 – 5.03 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.3 | 10.15 | 4.45 | 6.75 – 7.86 |
| 2028 | 8.02 | 12.96 | 3.08 | 6.88 – 9.16 |
| 2030 | 8.37 | 14.74 | 1.99 | 6.72 – 10.01 |
| 2035 | 8.65 | 17.67 | 0 | 5.89 – 11.41 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.29 | 5.63 | 2.94 | 4.01 – 4.56 |
| 2028 | 2.29 | 4.62 | 0 | 1.82 – 2.75 |
| 2030 | 0.29 | 3.3 | 0 | 0 – 0.83 |
| 2035 | 0 | 4.26 | 0 | 0 – 0.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/LAC · API docs
