Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Laos: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.08 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.24) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2016-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2016-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2016-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±3.4057 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Laos: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2017, 2019, 2021, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed0.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.71 | 14.02 | -10.59 | -0.83 – 4.25 |
| 2029 | 4.74 | 26.05 | -16.58 | 0.16 – 9.32 |
| 2031 | 7.77 | 30 | -19.75 | 1.53 – 14 |
| 2036 | 15.33 | 30 | -23.58 | 4.94 – 25.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.21(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 33.4 | 41.76 | 26.16 | 31.67 – 35.13 |
| 2019 | 33.79 | 48.27 | 21.24 | 30.1 – 37.48 |
| 2021 | 34.18 | 52.87 | 17.97 | 28.77 – 39.58 |
| 2026 | 35.14 | 61.58 | 12.23 | 25.74 – 44.54 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 19.5bn | 22.6bn | 16.8bn | 18.8bn – 20.2bn |
| 2029 | 20.8bn | 26.2bn | 16.1bn | 19.1bn – 22.4bn |
| 2031 | 22bn | 29bn | 16bn | 19.4bn – 24.6bn |
| 2036 | 25.2bn | 35.1bn | 16.6bn | 19.9bn – 30.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.08 | 5.14 | 3.16 | 3.84 – 4.32 |
| 2029 | 4.29 | 6.13 | 2.69 | 3.78 – 4.8 |
| 2031 | 4.49 | 6.87 | 2.44 | 3.74 – 5.25 |
| 2036 | 5.01 | 8.37 | 2.1 | 3.65 – 6.37 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.5k | 2.9k | 2.1k | 2.4k – 2.5k |
| 2029 | 2.6k | 3.3k | 1.9k | 2.3k – 2.8k |
| 2031 | 2.7k | 3.6k | 1.8k | 2.3k – 3k |
| 2036 | 2.9k | 4.2k | 1.8k | 2.3k – 3.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed74.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 77.92 | 100.68 | 51.67 | 73.18 – 82.67 |
| 2029 | 84.57 | 123.99 | 39.1 | 74.45 – 94.7 |
| 2031 | 91.22 | 142.11 | 32.51 | 76.1 – 106.35 |
| 2036 | 107.85 | 179.81 | 24.82 | 79.52 – 136.18 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.88(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 41.86 | 53.12 | 30.61 | 39.47 – 44.26 |
| 2019 | 41.82 | 61.32 | 22.33 | 36.83 – 46.81 |
| 2021 | 41.78 | 66.95 | 16.61 | 34.59 – 48.98 |
| 2026 | 41.68 | 77.28 | 6.09 | 29.57 – 53.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11.83 | 36.46 | -5 | 6.18 – 17.48 |
| 2029 | 14.43 | 50 | -5 | 4.28 – 24.58 |
| 2031 | 17.03 | 50 | -5 | 3.46 – 30.61 |
| 2036 | 23.54 | 50 | -5 | 2.5 – 44.57 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.01(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 28.87 | 35.62 | 23.02 | 27.44 – 30.29 |
| 2019 | 28.41 | 40.09 | 18.28 | 25.37 – 31.44 |
| 2021 | 27.94 | 43.03 | 14.87 | 23.55 – 32.33 |
| 2026 | 26.79 | 48.12 | 8.3 | 19.45 – 34.12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.9m | 8.2m | 7.5m | 7.6m – 8.1m |
| 2029 | 7.9m | 8.2m | 7.5m | 7.3m – 8.5m |
| 2031 | 7.9m | 8.3m | 7.5m | 7m – 8.8m |
| 2036 | 7.9m | 8.3m | 7.6m | 6.3m – 9.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.44 | 8.44 | -0.32 | 2.76 – 4.12 |
| 2028 | 5.64 | 14.3 | -0.86 | 4.28 – 6.99 |
| 2030 | 7.84 | 15 | -0.55 | 5.81 – 9.86 |
| 2035 | 13.34 | 15 | 1.48 | 9.23 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.3bn | 3bn | 1.6bn | 2.2bn – 2.4bn |
| 2027 | 2.5bn | 3.8bn | 1.3bn | 2.2bn – 2.9bn |
| 2029 | 2.8bn | 4.4bn | 1.2bn | 2.3bn – 3.3bn |
| 2034 | 3.4bn | 5.7bn | 1.2bn | 2.5bn – 4.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.39(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.3 | 3.65 | 0.96 | 2.06 – 2.55 |
| 2027 | 2.2 | 4.53 | 0 | 1.74 – 2.66 |
| 2029 | 2.15 | 5.16 | 0 | 1.51 – 2.78 |
| 2034 | 2.11 | 6.36 | 0 | 1.12 – 3.09 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.3bn | 3bn | 1.6bn | 2.2bn – 2.4bn |
| 2027 | 2.5bn | 3.7bn | 1.3bn | 2.2bn – 2.8bn |
| 2029 | 2.8bn | 4.3bn | 1.2bn | 2.3bn – 3.2bn |
| 2034 | 3.4bn | 5.6bn | 1.2bn | 2.5bn – 4.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.94 | 1.6 | 0.29 | 0.83 – 1.06 |
| 2028 | 0.45 | 1.59 | 0 | 0.23 – 0.68 |
| 2030 | 0 | 1.47 | 0 | 0 – 0.3 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.08 | 0 | 0 – 0.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/LAO · API docs
