Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Liberia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 37/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 13 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.43 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.26, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.20) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+17% skill vs naive; realized ±0.3303 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Liberia: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-12(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.35 | 8.14 | -16.83 | -6.96 – -1.73 |
| 2028 | -0.44 | 21.18 | -22.05 | -4.9 – 4.02 |
| 2030 | 3.47 | 30 | -24.44 | -2.5 – 9.45 |
| 2035 | 13.25 | 30 | -26.22 | 3.07 – 23.42 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.5bn | 6.1bn | 5.1bn | 5.4bn – 5.7bn |
| 2028 | 6.3bn | 7.2bn | 5.5bn | 5.8bn – 6.7bn |
| 2030 | 7bn | 8.1bn | 6bn | 6.2bn – 7.8bn |
| 2035 | 8.8bn | 10.4bn | 7.4bn | 7bn – 10.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.43 | 12 | -0.45 | 4.21 – 6.65 |
| 2028 | 6.44 | 12 | -3.74 | 4.17 – 8.71 |
| 2030 | 7.45 | 12 | -5.7 | 4.32 – 10.57 |
| 2035 | 9.97 | 12 | -8.62 | 4.8 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed915.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 952.99 | 1k | 871.47 | 923.44 – 982.53 |
| 2028 | 1k | 1.2k | 908.8 | 972.31 – 1.1k |
| 2030 | 1.1k | 1.4k | 964.71 | 1k – 1.3k |
| 2035 | 1.4k | 1.7k | 1.1k | 1.1k – 1.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.13 | 67.52 | 47.29 | 55.76 – 60.51 |
| 2028 | 64.59 | 80.86 | 45.82 | 58.99 – 70.2 |
| 2030 | 71.06 | 92.06 | 46.82 | 62.14 – 79.97 |
| 2035 | 87.22 | 116.92 | 52.94 | 68.69 – 105.74 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.48 | 16.52 | -0.13 | 6.56 – 10.4 |
| 2028 | 8.62 | 22.55 | -5 | 5.12 – 12.12 |
| 2030 | 8.76 | 26.74 | -5 | 4.08 – 13.45 |
| 2035 | 9.12 | 34.55 | -5 | 2.02 – 16.21 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.7m | 6m | 5.4m | 5.5m – 5.9m |
| 2028 | 5.8m | 6.1m | 5.6m | 5.4m – 6.3m |
| 2030 | 6m | 6.2m | 5.7m | 5.3m – 6.6m |
| 2035 | 6.3m | 6.6m | 6m | 5m – 7.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.67 | 7.05 | -0.61 | 2.08 – 3.26 |
| 2028 | 4.14 | 11.73 | -1.54 | 3 – 5.29 |
| 2030 | 5.61 | 15 | -1.73 | 3.94 – 7.29 |
| 2035 | 9.29 | 15 | -1.1 | 6.07 – 12.51 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed338.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 295.6m | 604.8m | 0 | 243.5m – 347.6m |
| 2028 | 198.5m | 734.1m | 0 | 107.1m – 290m |
| 2030 | 101.5m | 792.9m | 0 | 0 – 215.5m |
| 2035 | 0 | 977.7m | 0 | 0 – 149.7m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.02(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.4 | 4.39 | 0.41 | 2.06 – 2.75 |
| 2027 | 2.86 | 6.31 | 0 | 2.2 – 3.53 |
| 2029 | 3.09 | 7.54 | 0 | 2.16 – 4.02 |
| 2034 | 3.27 | 9.56 | 0 | 1.78 – 4.76 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed338.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 295.6m | 604.8m | 0 | 243.5m – 347.6m |
| 2028 | 198.5m | 734.1m | 0 | 107.1m – 290m |
| 2030 | 101.5m | 792.9m | 0 | 0 – 215.5m |
| 2035 | 0 | 977.7m | 0 | 0 – 149.7m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.63 | 3.29 | 1.97 | 2.49 – 2.77 |
| 2028 | 2.12 | 3.26 | 0.98 | 1.84 – 2.39 |
| 2030 | 1.61 | 3.08 | 0.14 | 1.25 – 1.96 |
| 2035 | 0.33 | 2.41 | 0 | 0 – 0.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/LBR · API docs
