Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
St. Lucia: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 63/100); the economy is in contraction; 3 turning-point signals flagged; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -0.94 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.26, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: cautious (projected sentiment -0.16) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+2% skill vs naive; realized ±2.945 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
St. Lucia: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.72 | 13.69 | -23.14 | -8.56 – -0.89 |
| 2028 | -4.97 | 26.93 | -30 | -11.72 – 1.78 |
| 2030 | -5.21 | 30 | -30 | -14.03 – 3.61 |
| 2035 | -5.83 | 30 | -30 | -18.64 – 6.99 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.7bn | 3.4bn | 2.2bn | 2.6bn – 2.9bn |
| 2028 | 3bn | 4.1bn | 2bn | 2.7bn – 3.3bn |
| 2030 | 3.2bn | 4.6bn | 2bn | 2.8bn – 3.6bn |
| 2035 | 3.8bn | 5.8bn | 2.1bn | 3bn – 4.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.94 | 12 | -10 | -6.81 – 4.92 |
| 2028 | -2.05 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 8.17 |
| 2030 | -3.16 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 10.17 |
| 2035 | -5.92 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.2k | 18.8k | 12.1k | 14.5k – 15.9k |
| 2028 | 16.5k | 22.7k | 11.1k | 14.9k – 18k |
| 2030 | 17.7k | 25.7k | 10.8k | 15.3k – 20.1k |
| 2035 | 20.8k | 32.1k | 11k | 16.2k – 25.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 79.32 | 100.68 | 54.68 | 74.77 – 83.88 |
| 2028 | 83.77 | 120.77 | 41.09 | 74.06 – 93.49 |
| 2030 | 88.22 | 135.98 | 33.12 | 73.82 – 102.63 |
| 2035 | 99.35 | 166.89 | 21.42 | 73.06 – 125.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.6 | 13.89 | -5 | 1.26 – 5.94 |
| 2028 | 7.38 | 25.2 | -5 | 3.08 – 11.69 |
| 2030 | 11.16 | 34.17 | -5 | 5.17 – 17.16 |
| 2035 | 20.62 | 50 | -5 | 10.11 – 31.13 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed180.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 180k | 188.5k | 172.1k | 174.4k – 185.6k |
| 2028 | 180.5k | 189k | 172.6k | 167.1k – 193.8k |
| 2030 | 180.9k | 189.5k | 173k | 160.4k – 201.5k |
| 2035 | 182k | 190.6k | 174k | 144.3k – 219.8k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.03 | 15 | -10 | -7.33 – 1.26 |
| 2028 | -5.3 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 2.31 |
| 2030 | -7.57 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 2.54 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 5.03 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed447.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 462.6m | 617.5m | 307.8m | 431.5m – 493.7m |
| 2028 | 504.1m | 772.3m | 235.9m | 438.9m – 569.4m |
| 2030 | 545.6m | 891.8m | 199.4m | 449m – 642.2m |
| 2035 | 649.3m | 1.1bn | 159.7m | 470.5m – 828.1m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.1 | 5.07 | 1.12 | 2.74 – 3.45 |
| 2028 | 3.22 | 6.65 | 0 | 2.54 – 3.9 |
| 2030 | 3.29 | 7.71 | 0 | 2.35 – 4.22 |
| 2035 | 3.34 | 9.59 | 0 | 1.84 – 4.83 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed447.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 462.6m | 617.5m | 307.8m | 431.5m – 493.7m |
| 2028 | 504.1m | 772.3m | 235.9m | 438.9m – 569.4m |
| 2030 | 545.6m | 891.8m | 199.4m | 449m – 642.2m |
| 2035 | 649.3m | 1.1bn | 159.7m | 470.5m – 828.1m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.21 | 9.28 | 3.13 | 5.64 – 6.77 |
| 2028 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 – 0.86 |
| 2030 | 0 | 6.88 | 0 | 0 – 1.13 |
| 2035 | 0 | 9.72 | 0 | 0 – 1.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/LCA · API docs
