Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Latin America & Caribbean: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 27/100); the economy is in expansion; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.65 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.46, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.40) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±0.3078 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Latin America & Caribbean: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed26.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.36 | 29.33 | 23.78 | 25.51 – 27.21 |
| 2028 | 26.79 | 31.94 | 22.33 | 24.77 – 28.81 |
| 2030 | 27.22 | 33.86 | 21.46 | 24.09 – 30.34 |
| 2035 | 28.29 | 37.69 | 20.14 | 22.42 – 34.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.7T | 8.8T | 6.7T | 7.4T – 7.9T |
| 2028 | 8.4T | 10.4T | 6.7T | 7.8T – 9.1T |
| 2030 | 9.2T | 11.8T | 6.9T | 8.1T – 10.2T |
| 2035 | 11T | 14.7T | 7.9T | 8.7T – 13.3T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.65 | 12 | -8.56 | 0.45 – 4.85 |
| 2028 | 3.36 | 12 | -10 | -0.53 – 7.26 |
| 2030 | 4.08 | 12 | -10 | -1.07 – 9.23 |
| 2035 | 5.86 | 12 | -10 | -1.9 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.5k | 13.3k | 9.9k | 11.1k – 11.9k |
| 2028 | 12.5k | 15.6k | 9.8k | 11.5k – 13.4k |
| 2030 | 13.5k | 17.5k | 10k | 11.9k – 15k |
| 2035 | 15.9k | 21.6k | 11k | 12.6k – 19.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.65 | 31.19 | 22.1 | 25.52 – 27.77 |
| 2028 | 27.08 | 34.95 | 19.21 | 24.57 – 29.58 |
| 2030 | 27.51 | 37.67 | 17.35 | 23.75 – 31.26 |
| 2035 | 28.59 | 42.96 | 14.21 | 21.81 – 35.36 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 7.59 | -3.98 | 0.73 – 3.27 |
| 2028 | 0.38 | 10.06 | -5 | -1.81 – 2.58 |
| 2030 | -1.24 | 11.26 | -5 | -4.11 – 1.63 |
| 2035 | -5 | 12.67 | -5 | -5 – -0.28 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.54 | 20.04 | 17.25 | 17.97 – 19.12 |
| 2028 | 18.31 | 20.9 | 16.07 | 16.96 – 19.67 |
| 2030 | 18.08 | 21.42 | 15.19 | 16.03 – 20.13 |
| 2035 | 17.5 | 22.22 | 13.41 | 13.87 – 21.13 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed666.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 665.4m | 696.8m | 636.2m | 644.8m – 686m |
| 2028 | 670.2m | 701.9m | 640.8m | 620.7m – 719.8m |
| 2030 | 675.1m | 707m | 645.5m | 598.4m – 751.7m |
| 2035 | 687.2m | 719.7m | 657.1m | 544.7m – 829.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.05 | 3.48 | -0.77 | 0.73 – 1.37 |
| 2028 | 1.69 | 5.88 | -1.46 | 1.08 – 2.29 |
| 2030 | 2.32 | 7.74 | -1.74 | 1.46 – 3.18 |
| 2035 | 3.91 | 11.57 | -1.84 | 2.32 – 5.49 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.1 | 9.84 | 4.35 | 6.57 – 7.63 |
| 2028 | 7.77 | 12.52 | 3.01 | 6.67 – 8.87 |
| 2030 | 8.09 | 14.23 | 1.96 | 6.51 – 9.68 |
| 2035 | 8.35 | 17.03 | 0 | 5.69 – 11.02 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.48 | 5.82 | 3.14 | 4.2 – 4.75 |
| 2028 | 2.52 | 4.84 | 0.19 | 2.04 – 2.99 |
| 2030 | 0.55 | 3.55 | 0 | 0.01 – 1.09 |
| 2035 | 0 | 4.24 | 0 | 0 – 0.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/LCN · API docs
