Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Least developed countries: UN classification: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 26/100); the economy is in expansion; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.88 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.48, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.52) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±0.6925 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Least developed countries: UN classification: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed21.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.87 | 25.31 | 18.89 | 21.03 – 22.71 |
| 2028 | 22.29 | 28.24 | 17.13 | 20.37 – 24.21 |
| 2030 | 22.71 | 30.39 | 16.04 | 19.79 – 25.62 |
| 2035 | 23.75 | 34.63 | 14.33 | 18.4 – 29.11 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7T | 1.8T | 1.6T | 1.7T – 1.8T |
| 2028 | 1.8T | 2.1T | 1.7T | 1.7T – 2T |
| 2030 | 2T | 2.3T | 1.7T | 1.8T – 2.2T |
| 2035 | 2.3T | 2.7T | 2T | 1.8T – 2.8T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.88 | 8.14 | 2.05 | 4.26 – 5.5 |
| 2028 | 6.18 | 11.83 | 1.28 | 4.94 – 7.42 |
| 2030 | 7.47 | 12 | 1.15 | 5.66 – 9.29 |
| 2035 | 10.72 | 12 | 1.77 | 7.28 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4k | 1.5k | 1.3k | 1.3k – 1.4k |
| 2028 | 1.4k | 1.6k | 1.3k | 1.3k – 1.6k |
| 2030 | 1.5k | 1.8k | 1.3k | 1.3k – 1.7k |
| 2035 | 1.7k | 2k | 1.4k | 1.3k – 2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.48 | 32.12 | 24.84 | 27.47 – 29.49 |
| 2028 | 28.43 | 34.74 | 22.12 | 26.1 – 30.76 |
| 2030 | 28.38 | 36.52 | 20.24 | 24.86 – 31.9 |
| 2035 | 28.26 | 39.77 | 16.74 | 21.97 – 34.54 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.22 | 9.02 | -3 | 1.88 – 4.56 |
| 2028 | 1.52 | 11.57 | -5 | -0.78 – 3.82 |
| 2030 | -0.19 | 12.79 | -5 | -3.14 – 2.77 |
| 2035 | -4.45 | 13.9 | -5 | -5 – 0.33 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.48 | 26.39 | 22.83 | 23.73 – 25.24 |
| 2028 | 22.91 | 26.21 | 20.05 | 21.21 – 24.6 |
| 2030 | 21.33 | 25.59 | 17.64 | 18.91 – 23.75 |
| 2035 | 17.38 | 23.41 | 12.16 | 13.74 – 21.03 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn | 1.2bn – 1.2bn |
| 2028 | 1.2bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn | 1.1bn – 1.3bn |
| 2030 | 1.3bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn | 1.1bn – 1.4bn |
| 2035 | 1.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.1bn – 1.6bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.93 | 6.3 | -1.35 | 1.35 – 2.5 |
| 2028 | 2.47 | 10.04 | -3.21 | 1.4 – 3.54 |
| 2030 | 3.01 | 12.79 | -4.32 | 1.55 – 4.48 |
| 2035 | 4.37 | 15 | -6 | 1.94 – 6.8 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.41 | 10.5 | 4.32 | 6.82 – 8 |
| 2028 | 6.91 | 12.27 | 1.55 | 5.76 – 8.06 |
| 2030 | 6.67 | 13.58 | 0 | 5.07 – 8.26 |
| 2035 | 6.47 | 16.25 | 0 | 3.94 – 9 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.43 | 5.01 | 3.85 | 4.27 – 4.59 |
| 2028 | 3.95 | 4.96 | 2.94 | 3.61 – 4.3 |
| 2030 | 3.48 | 4.78 | 2.17 | 3 – 3.95 |
| 2035 | 2.29 | 4.13 | 0.45 | 1.64 – 2.94 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/LDC · API docs
