Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Liechtenstein: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 36/100); the economy is in contraction; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 9 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -1.14 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.28, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.34) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2009-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±7.9658 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Liechtenstein: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed12.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.07 | 14.16 | 9.98 | 11.45 – 12.69 |
| 2029 | 10.81 | 14.43 | 7.18 | 9.55 – 12.07 |
| 2031 | 9.55 | 14.23 | 4.86 | 7.83 – 11.26 |
| 2036 | 6.39 | 13.01 | -0.23 | 4.02 – 8.76 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.9bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.8bn | 11bn | 8.7bn | 9.4bn – 10.1bn |
| 2029 | 10.6bn | 12.7bn | 8.7bn | 9.8bn – 11.3bn |
| 2031 | 11.4bn | 14.2bn | 8.9bn | 10.1bn – 12.7bn |
| 2036 | 13.4bn | 17.4bn | 9.9bn | 10.6bn – 16.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.16(2009)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.14 | 12 | -10 | -4.77 – 2.49 |
| 2029 | -2.97 | 12 | -10 | -9.37 – 3.44 |
| 2031 | -4.79 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 3.67 |
| 2036 | -9.36 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 3.57 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed220.2k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 232.2k | 250k | 204k | 224.6k – 239.8k |
| 2029 | 246.5k | 250k | 197.6k | 228k – 250k |
| 2031 | 250k | 250k | 186.8k | 221.3k – 250k |
| 2036 | 250k | 250k | 160.6k | 197.7k – 250k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.49 | 0.67 | 0.28 | 0.44 – 0.54 |
| 2029 | 0.47 | 0.66 | 0.26 | 0.4 – 0.55 |
| 2031 | 0.46 | 0.69 | 0.19 | 0.34 – 0.57 |
| 2036 | 0.42 | 0.74 | 0.04 | 0.2 – 0.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.73 | 3.17 | -1.89 | 0.17 – 1.29 |
| 2029 | 1.15 | 5.38 | -3.38 | 0.16 – 2.14 |
| 2031 | 1.57 | 7.03 | -4.28 | 0.23 – 2.9 |
| 2036 | 2.62 | 10.34 | -5 | 0.49 – 4.75 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 41.9k | 43.9k | 40.1k | 40.6k – 43.2k |
| 2029 | 43k | 45k | 41.1k | 39.8k – 46.2k |
| 2031 | 44k | 46.1k | 42.1k | 39k – 49.1k |
| 2036 | 46.7k | 48.9k | 44.7k | 37k – 56.4k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.14 | 4.76 | 3.52 | 3.98 – 4.3 |
| 2029 | 4.63 | 5.7 | 3.56 | 4.24 – 5.02 |
| 2031 | 5.11 | 6.5 | 3.73 | 4.49 – 5.74 |
| 2036 | 6.33 | 8.29 | 4.37 | 5.02 – 7.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/LIE · API docs
