Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Low & middle income: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 22/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.68 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.56, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.48) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±0.0834 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Low & middle income: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed25.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.66 | 28.39 | 23.29 | 24.86 – 26.46 |
| 2028 | 26.45 | 31.19 | 22.35 | 24.5 – 28.41 |
| 2030 | 27.25 | 33.36 | 21.96 | 24.16 – 30.35 |
| 2035 | 29.24 | 37.88 | 21.75 | 23.18 – 35.31 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.5T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.7T | 46.4T | 39.5T | 41.4T – 44T |
| 2028 | 45.8T | 52.3T | 40.2T | 42.4T – 49.2T |
| 2030 | 49T | 57.3T | 41.8T | 43.4T – 54.6T |
| 2035 | 56.9T | 68.7T | 46.7T | 45.1T – 68.7T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.68 | 12 | -2.5 | 3.23 – 6.14 |
| 2028 | 5.05 | 12 | -7.4 | 2.41 – 7.68 |
| 2030 | 5.41 | 12 | -10 | 1.89 – 8.94 |
| 2035 | 6.33 | 12 | -10 | 0.94 – 11.71 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.2k | 6.8k | 5.7k | 6k – 6.4k |
| 2028 | 6.6k | 7.6k | 5.7k | 6.1k – 7.1k |
| 2030 | 7k | 8.3k | 5.9k | 6.2k – 7.8k |
| 2035 | 7.9k | 9.7k | 6.3k | 6.2k – 9.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.55 | 27.28 | 21.83 | 23.75 – 25.36 |
| 2028 | 24.98 | 29.69 | 20.26 | 23.06 – 26.9 |
| 2030 | 25.4 | 31.48 | 19.31 | 22.43 – 28.36 |
| 2035 | 26.45 | 35.05 | 17.85 | 20.9 – 32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.67 | 9.02 | -2.06 | 2.43 – 4.91 |
| 2028 | 3.26 | 12.53 | -5 | 1.05 – 5.47 |
| 2030 | 2.86 | 14.82 | -5 | -0.02 – 5.74 |
| 2035 | 1.84 | 18.76 | -5 | -2.2 – 5.89 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.98(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31.8 | 33.47 | 30.36 | 30.82 – 32.79 |
| 2027 | 31.39 | 33.45 | 29.59 | 29.06 – 33.71 |
| 2029 | 30.97 | 33.64 | 28.65 | 27.45 – 34.48 |
| 2034 | 29.92 | 33.7 | 26.65 | 23.72 – 36.13 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.8bn | 7.1bn | 6.5bn | 6.6bn – 7bn |
| 2028 | 6.8bn | 7.2bn | 6.5bn | 6.3bn – 7.4bn |
| 2030 | 6.9bn | 7.3bn | 6.6bn | 6.1bn – 7.7bn |
| 2035 | 7.1bn | 7.5bn | 6.8bn | 5.6bn – 8.6bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.95 | 8.28 | 0.7 | 3.35 – 4.56 |
| 2028 | 4.93 | 12.43 | -0.7 | 3.75 – 6.1 |
| 2030 | 5.9 | 15 | -1.36 | 4.22 – 7.58 |
| 2035 | 8.34 | 15 | -1.94 | 5.29 – 11.39 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.29 | 13.07 | 7.51 | 9.7 – 10.88 |
| 2028 | 10.76 | 15.57 | 5.94 | 9.5 – 12.01 |
| 2030 | 10.99 | 17.2 | 4.77 | 9.16 – 12.82 |
| 2035 | 11.17 | 19.96 | 2.38 | 8.04 – 14.3 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.52 | 5.05 | 3.99 | 4.36 – 4.67 |
| 2028 | 3.78 | 4.7 | 2.87 | 3.46 – 4.1 |
| 2030 | 3.05 | 4.23 | 1.86 | 2.62 – 3.47 |
| 2035 | 1.21 | 2.88 | 0 | 0.76 – 1.66 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/LMY · API docs
