Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Late-demographic dividend: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 30/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.58 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.40, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.44) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±0.4617 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Late-demographic dividend: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed31.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.79 | 34.24 | 29.67 | 30.81 – 32.78 |
| 2028 | 32.8 | 37.04 | 29.12 | 30.37 – 35.22 |
| 2030 | 33.8 | 39.27 | 29.05 | 29.96 – 37.64 |
| 2035 | 36.31 | 44.05 | 29.6 | 28.77 – 43.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.9T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.8T | 35.9T | 30.1T | 31.8T – 33.8T |
| 2028 | 35.2T | 40.5T | 30.6T | 32.6T – 37.8T |
| 2030 | 37.6T | 44.5T | 31.7T | 33.4T – 41.9T |
| 2035 | 43.7T | 53.4T | 35.3T | 34.6T – 52.8T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.58 | 12 | -2.25 | 3.19 – 5.97 |
| 2028 | 4.88 | 12 | -6.96 | 2.37 – 7.39 |
| 2030 | 5.17 | 12 | -10 | 1.82 – 8.52 |
| 2035 | 5.91 | 12 | -10 | 0.81 – 11.01 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.1k | 15.4k | 12.9k | 13.6k – 14.5k |
| 2028 | 15.1k | 17.4k | 13.1k | 14k – 16.2k |
| 2030 | 16.1k | 19.1k | 13.5k | 14.3k – 17.9k |
| 2035 | 18.6k | 22.8k | 15k | 14.8k – 22.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.82 | 28.21 | 25.44 | 25.99 – 27.65 |
| 2028 | 27.19 | 29.59 | 24.79 | 25.18 – 29.2 |
| 2030 | 27.56 | 30.65 | 24.46 | 24.43 – 30.69 |
| 2035 | 28.48 | 32.86 | 24.1 | 22.57 – 34.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.34 | 10.96 | -2.76 | 2.8 – 5.87 |
| 2028 | 5.47 | 16.93 | -5 | 2.66 – 8.27 |
| 2030 | 6.59 | 21.4 | -5 | 2.78 – 10.4 |
| 2035 | 9.41 | 30.35 | -5 | 3.27 – 15.56 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.89(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 32.54 | 34.25 | 31.06 | 31.53 – 33.55 |
| 2027 | 31.62 | 34.12 | 29.46 | 29.28 – 33.96 |
| 2029 | 30.71 | 33.93 | 27.92 | 27.22 – 34.2 |
| 2034 | 28.43 | 32.98 | 24.48 | 22.53 – 34.32 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.3bn | 2.4bn | 2.2bn | 2.3bn – 2.4bn |
| 2028 | 2.3bn | 2.4bn | 2.2bn | 2.2bn – 2.5bn |
| 2030 | 2.3bn | 2.4bn | 2.2bn | 2.1bn – 2.6bn |
| 2035 | 2.3bn | 2.4bn | 2.2bn | 1.9bn – 2.8bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.37 | 6.45 | 1.06 | 2.93 – 3.81 |
| 2028 | 3.52 | 8.86 | -0.48 | 2.69 – 4.36 |
| 2030 | 3.67 | 10.56 | -1.49 | 2.52 – 4.83 |
| 2035 | 4.06 | 13.8 | -3.25 | 2.19 – 5.92 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.5 | 12.91 | 8.09 | 9.96 – 11.04 |
| 2028 | 11.14 | 15.31 | 6.97 | 9.97 – 12.32 |
| 2030 | 11.46 | 16.84 | 6.07 | 9.72 – 13.2 |
| 2035 | 11.71 | 19.33 | 4.09 | 8.67 – 14.75 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.2 | 4.45 | 3.96 | 4.07 – 4.33 |
| 2028 | 3.62 | 4.03 | 3.2 | 3.35 – 3.88 |
| 2030 | 3.03 | 3.57 | 2.49 | 2.68 – 3.37 |
| 2035 | 1.56 | 2.32 | 0.8 | 1.19 – 1.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/LTE · API docs
