Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Lithuania: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 41/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 23 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.61 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.18, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.22) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+11% skill vs naive; realized ±0.7056 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Lithuania: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed0.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.03 | 10.77 | -8.7 | -0.97 – 3.04 |
| 2028 | 0.5 | 17.36 | -16.37 | -2.99 – 3.99 |
| 2030 | -0.04 | 21.73 | -21.81 | -4.56 – 4.48 |
| 2035 | -1.38 | 29.41 | -30 | -7.88 – 5.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.9 | 85.88 | 61.65 | 69.88 – 75.92 |
| 2028 | 72.73 | 95.22 | 53.25 | 66.03 – 79.44 |
| 2030 | 72.57 | 101.59 | 47.41 | 62.61 – 82.52 |
| 2035 | 72.15 | 113.2 | 36.57 | 54.74 – 89.55 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed95.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 100.9bn | 108.3bn | 94.5bn | 97.8bn – 104bn |
| 2028 | 115.2bn | 128.1bn | 104.1bn | 106.7bn – 123.8bn |
| 2030 | 129.6bn | 146.2bn | 115.2bn | 114.9bn – 144.3bn |
| 2035 | 165.4bn | 188.9bn | 145bn | 131.1bn – 199.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.61 | 11.02 | -2.82 | 2.31 – 4.9 |
| 2028 | 5.01 | 12 | -6.12 | 2.63 – 7.39 |
| 2030 | 6.42 | 12 | -7.95 | 3.14 – 9.7 |
| 2035 | 9.94 | 12 | -10 | 4.44 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.8k | 37.3k | 32.6k | 33.7k – 35.9k |
| 2028 | 39.5k | 43.8k | 35.7k | 36.5k – 42.4k |
| 2030 | 44.1k | 49.8k | 39.2k | 39.1k – 49.1k |
| 2035 | 55.8k | 63.8k | 48.9k | 44.2k – 67.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.88(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.49 | 4.24 | 0.61 | 2.01 – 2.96 |
| 2029 | 2.02 | 5.05 | 0 | 1.17 – 2.86 |
| 2031 | 1.79 | 5.7 | 0 | 0.68 – 2.89 |
| 2036 | 1.6 | 7.14 | 0 | 0 – 3.22 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.9 | 48.1 | 30.44 | 38 – 41.8 |
| 2028 | 40.11 | 54.31 | 23.71 | 35.99 – 44.22 |
| 2030 | 40.31 | 58.65 | 19.15 | 34.26 – 46.36 |
| 2035 | 40.82 | 66.75 | 10.89 | 30.3 – 51.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69.12 | 89.01 | 49.24 | 64.97 – 73.27 |
| 2028 | 69.13 | 103.57 | 34.68 | 60.54 – 77.72 |
| 2030 | 69.13 | 113.59 | 24.66 | 56.79 – 81.46 |
| 2035 | 69.13 | 132.02 | 6.24 | 48.45 – 89.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.93 | 24.73 | -5 | 1.67 – 10.2 |
| 2028 | 10.24 | 42.79 | -5 | 2.53 – 17.95 |
| 2030 | 14.55 | 50 | -5 | 4.07 – 25.03 |
| 2035 | 25.31 | 50 | -5 | 8.09 – 42.54 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.6(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.41 | 21.44 | -5 | 1.77 – 9.05 |
| 2029 | 5.22 | 33 | -5 | -1.18 – 11.63 |
| 2031 | 5.16 | 41.01 | -5 | -3.2 – 13.52 |
| 2036 | 5.12 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 17.18 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.05 | 24.8 | 21.54 | 22.34 – 23.77 |
| 2028 | 23.37 | 26.4 | 20.75 | 21.64 – 25.1 |
| 2030 | 23.7 | 27.6 | 20.31 | 21 – 26.39 |
| 2035 | 24.5 | 30.03 | 19.71 | 19.42 – 29.58 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9m | 3m | 2.8m | 2.8m – 3m |
| 2028 | 2.9m | 3m | 2.8m | 2.7m – 3.1m |
| 2030 | 2.9m | 3m | 2.8m | 2.6m – 3.2m |
| 2035 | 2.9m | 3m | 2.8m | 2.3m – 3.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.28 | 10.51 | -2.13 | 2.33 – 4.24 |
| 2028 | 4.27 | 15 | -5.11 | 2.5 – 6.04 |
| 2030 | 5.26 | 15 | -6.85 | 2.82 – 7.7 |
| 2035 | 7.74 | 15 | -9.39 | 3.65 – 11.83 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.6bn | 8bn | 5.2bn | 6.3bn – 6.9bn |
| 2028 | 7.3bn | 9.7bn | 4.9bn | 6.6bn – 8.1bn |
| 2030 | 8.1bn | 11.2bn | 5bn | 7bn – 9.2bn |
| 2035 | 10bn | 14.4bn | 5.6bn | 7.7bn – 12.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.21 | 1.69 | 0.73 | 1.11 – 1.3 |
| 2028 | 1.25 | 2.09 | 0.41 | 1.06 – 1.44 |
| 2030 | 1.27 | 2.35 | 0.19 | 1 – 1.54 |
| 2035 | 1.29 | 2.81 | 0 | 0.85 – 1.73 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.5bn | 8.8bn | 6.2bn | 7.2bn – 7.8bn |
| 2028 | 8.5bn | 10.8bn | 6.2bn | 7.7bn – 9.2bn |
| 2030 | 9.5bn | 12.4bn | 6.5bn | 8.3bn – 10.7bn |
| 2035 | 11.9bn | 16.1bn | 7.8bn | 9.4bn – 14.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.48 | 8.1 | 4.86 | 6.13 – 6.83 |
| 2028 | 5.99 | 8.79 | 3.18 | 5.27 – 6.7 |
| 2030 | 5.49 | 9.11 | 1.87 | 4.5 – 6.48 |
| 2035 | 4.25 | 9.37 | 0 | 2.79 – 5.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/LTU · API docs
