Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Lithuania: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 43/100); the economy is in slowdown; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.72 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.14, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.22) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+11% skill vs naive; realized ±4.8676 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Lithuania: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed0.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.3 | 9.09 | -9.69 | -2.23 – 1.63 |
| 2029 | -1.3 | 14.96 | -17.57 | -4.69 – 2.08 |
| 2031 | -2.31 | 18.69 | -23.3 | -6.78 – 2.16 |
| 2036 | -4.81 | 24.88 | -30 | -11.64 – 2.02 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.9 | 85.88 | 61.65 | 69.88 – 75.92 |
| 2028 | 72.73 | 95.22 | 53.25 | 66.03 – 79.44 |
| 2030 | 72.57 | 101.59 | 47.41 | 62.61 – 82.52 |
| 2035 | 72.15 | 113.2 | 36.57 | 54.74 – 89.55 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed95.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 112.3bn | 119bn | 106.4bn | 108.8bn – 115.7bn |
| 2029 | 128.4bn | 140.1bn | 118.3bn | 118.9bn – 137.9bn |
| 2031 | 144.6bn | 159.7bn | 131.5bn | 128.2bn – 161bn |
| 2036 | 185bn | 206.4bn | 166.5bn | 146.6bn – 223.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.72 | 7.05 | -1.03 | 1.95 – 3.48 |
| 2029 | 2.34 | 9.83 | -4.16 | 0.98 – 3.7 |
| 2031 | 1.96 | 11.64 | -6.43 | 0.19 – 3.73 |
| 2036 | 1.01 | 12 | -10 | -1.44 – 3.45 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 38.6k | 41k | 36.6k | 37.4k – 39.8k |
| 2029 | 44k | 48.1k | 40.5k | 40.8k – 47.3k |
| 2031 | 49.4k | 54.6k | 44.9k | 43.8k – 55k |
| 2036 | 62.9k | 70.3k | 56.4k | 49.8k – 75.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.88(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.49 | 4.24 | 0.61 | 2.01 – 2.96 |
| 2029 | 2.02 | 5.05 | 0 | 1.17 – 2.86 |
| 2031 | 1.79 | 5.7 | 0 | 0.68 – 2.89 |
| 2036 | 1.6 | 7.14 | 0 | 0 – 3.22 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 45.59 | 54.3 | 35.53 | 43.52 – 47.66 |
| 2029 | 46.56 | 61.65 | 29.14 | 42 – 51.11 |
| 2031 | 47.53 | 67.01 | 25.04 | 40.73 – 54.33 |
| 2036 | 49.95 | 77.51 | 18.16 | 37.72 – 62.19 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69.12 | 89.01 | 49.24 | 64.97 – 73.27 |
| 2028 | 69.13 | 103.57 | 34.68 | 60.54 – 77.72 |
| 2030 | 69.13 | 113.59 | 24.66 | 56.79 – 81.46 |
| 2035 | 69.13 | 132.02 | 6.24 | 48.45 – 89.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.08 | 22.64 | -5 | -0.1 – 8.26 |
| 2029 | 4.37 | 36.51 | -5 | -2.96 – 11.71 |
| 2031 | 4.67 | 46.16 | -5 | -4.9 – 14.24 |
| 2036 | 5.39 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 19.27 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.6(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.41 | 21.44 | -5 | 1.77 – 9.05 |
| 2029 | 5.22 | 33 | -5 | -1.18 – 11.63 |
| 2031 | 5.16 | 41.01 | -5 | -3.2 – 13.52 |
| 2036 | 5.12 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 17.18 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.05 | 24.8 | 21.54 | 22.34 – 23.77 |
| 2028 | 23.37 | 26.4 | 20.75 | 21.64 – 25.1 |
| 2030 | 23.7 | 27.6 | 20.31 | 21 – 26.39 |
| 2035 | 24.5 | 30.03 | 19.71 | 19.42 – 29.58 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.9m | 3m | 2.8m | 2.8m – 3m |
| 2029 | 2.9m | 3m | 2.8m | 2.7m – 3.1m |
| 2031 | 2.9m | 3.1m | 2.8m | 2.6m – 3.2m |
| 2036 | 2.9m | 3.1m | 2.8m | 2.3m – 3.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.28 | 10.51 | -2.13 | 2.33 – 4.24 |
| 2028 | 4.27 | 15 | -5.11 | 2.5 – 6.04 |
| 2030 | 5.26 | 15 | -6.85 | 2.82 – 7.7 |
| 2035 | 7.74 | 15 | -9.39 | 3.65 – 11.83 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.6bn | 8bn | 5.2bn | 6.3bn – 6.9bn |
| 2028 | 7.3bn | 9.7bn | 4.9bn | 6.6bn – 8.1bn |
| 2030 | 8.1bn | 11.2bn | 5bn | 7bn – 9.2bn |
| 2035 | 10bn | 14.4bn | 5.6bn | 7.7bn – 12.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.21 | 1.69 | 0.73 | 1.11 – 1.3 |
| 2028 | 1.25 | 2.09 | 0.41 | 1.06 – 1.44 |
| 2030 | 1.27 | 2.35 | 0.19 | 1 – 1.54 |
| 2035 | 1.29 | 2.81 | 0 | 0.85 – 1.73 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.5bn | 8.8bn | 6.2bn | 7.2bn – 7.8bn |
| 2028 | 8.5bn | 10.8bn | 6.2bn | 7.7bn – 9.2bn |
| 2030 | 9.5bn | 12.4bn | 6.5bn | 8.3bn – 10.7bn |
| 2035 | 11.9bn | 16.1bn | 7.8bn | 9.4bn – 14.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.48 | 7.75 | 5.2 | 6.18 – 6.78 |
| 2029 | 6.44 | 8.65 | 4.23 | 5.79 – 7.09 |
| 2031 | 6.4 | 9.25 | 3.55 | 5.45 – 7.35 |
| 2036 | 6.29 | 10.33 | 2.26 | 4.67 – 7.92 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/LTU · API docs
