Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Luxembourg: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 29/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.74 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.42, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.36) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-14% skill vs naive; realized ±5.2875 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Luxembourg: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed4.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.16 | 7.54 | 0.78 | 3.4 – 4.91 |
| 2029 | 3.48 | 9.33 | -2.38 | 2.11 – 4.84 |
| 2031 | 2.79 | 10.35 | -4.77 | 1.03 – 4.56 |
| 2036 | 1.08 | 11.77 | -9.6 | -1.27 – 3.44 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed190.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 128.81 | 144.11 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 113.3 | 136.75 – 150 |
| 2030 | 150 | 150 | 102.62 | 130.19 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 82.99 | 114.95 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed101.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 115.6bn | 126.9bn | 105.8bn | 112bn – 119.2bn |
| 2029 | 128.6bn | 148.2bn | 111.6bn | 119.1bn – 138.1bn |
| 2031 | 141.6bn | 167bn | 119.6bn | 125.5bn – 157.7bn |
| 2036 | 174.2bn | 210bn | 143.1bn | 138bn – 210.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.74 | 9.1 | -4.63 | 0.49 – 3 |
| 2029 | 2.05 | 12 | -8.98 | -0.17 – 4.27 |
| 2031 | 2.36 | 12 | -10 | -0.56 – 5.29 |
| 2036 | 3.14 | 12 | -10 | -1.24 – 7.51 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed147.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 164.6k | 182.3k | 149.2k | 159.5k – 169.7k |
| 2029 | 179.5k | 210.3k | 152.8k | 166.2k – 192.7k |
| 2031 | 194.4k | 234.1k | 159.9k | 172.3k – 216.4k |
| 2036 | 231.6k | 250k | 182.9k | 183.6k – 250k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.19(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.65 | 4.62 | 0.55 | 2.13 – 3.18 |
| 2029 | 2.02 | 5.42 | 0 | 1.08 – 2.95 |
| 2031 | 1.71 | 6.1 | 0 | 0.49 – 2.93 |
| 2036 | 1.46 | 7.68 | 0 | 0 – 3.22 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 28.73 | 30.44 | 26.75 | 27.84 – 29.62 |
| 2029 | 30.18 | 33.15 | 26.75 | 27.95 – 32.41 |
| 2031 | 31.63 | 35.47 | 27.2 | 28.04 – 35.22 |
| 2036 | 35.26 | 40.69 | 29 | 27.95 – 42.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed159.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 126.57 | 144.01 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 109.42 | 136.59 – 150 |
| 2030 | 150 | 150 | 97.61 | 129.98 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 75.92 | 114.66 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.08 | 6.54 | -2.7 | 1.05 – 3.1 |
| 2029 | 1.86 | 9.58 | -5 | 0.05 – 3.66 |
| 2031 | 1.64 | 11.61 | -5 | -0.71 – 3.98 |
| 2036 | 1.09 | 15.19 | -5 | -2.21 – 4.39 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.17 | 8.08 | -2.1 | 2.03 – 4.31 |
| 2029 | 2.95 | 11.46 | -5 | 0.92 – 4.97 |
| 2031 | 2.87 | 13.85 | -5 | 0.2 – 5.53 |
| 2036 | 2.82 | 18.36 | -5 | -1.07 – 6.72 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.63 | 16.94 | 12.64 | 14.07 – 15.2 |
| 2028 | 13.74 | 17.72 | 10.28 | 12.51 – 14.97 |
| 2030 | 12.84 | 17.99 | 8.38 | 11.08 – 14.6 |
| 2035 | 10.6 | 17.88 | 4.29 | 7.86 – 13.33 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed687k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 693k | 725.7k | 662.6k | 671.5k – 714.5k |
| 2029 | 702.9k | 736.1k | 672.1k | 650.9k – 754.9k |
| 2031 | 712.9k | 746.5k | 681.6k | 631.9k – 793.8k |
| 2036 | 737.7k | 772.5k | 705.3k | 584.7k – 890.7k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.01 | 5.51 | -4.12 | -0.7 – 0.71 |
| 2028 | 1.07 | 10.6 | -6.07 | -0.17 – 2.32 |
| 2030 | 2.14 | 14.44 | -7.08 | 0.43 – 3.85 |
| 2035 | 4.81 | 15 | -8.23 | 1.87 – 7.75 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.8bn | 4.1bn | 1.6bn | 2.6bn – 3.1bn |
| 2028 | 3bn | 5.2bn | 877.5m | 2.6bn – 3.5bn |
| 2030 | 3.3bn | 6.1bn | 476.5m | 2.6bn – 4bn |
| 2035 | 3.8bn | 7.8bn | 0 | 2.6bn – 5.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.06 | 0.25 | 0 | 0.01 – 0.11 |
| 2028 | 0.05 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 – 0.11 |
| 2030 | 0.05 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 – 0.14 |
| 2035 | 0.05 | 0.24 | 0 | 0 – 0.22 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2bn | 4.4bn | 1.9bn | 2.9bn – 3.4bn |
| 2028 | 3.5bn | 5.6bn | 1.4bn | 3bn – 4bn |
| 2030 | 3.8bn | 6.5bn | 1.1bn | 3.1bn – 4.5bn |
| 2035 | 4.6bn | 8.5bn | 720.7m | 3.3bn – 5.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.13 | 7.64 | 4.62 | 5.8 – 6.46 |
| 2029 | 6.6 | 9.22 | 3.98 | 5.88 – 7.31 |
| 2031 | 7.06 | 10.44 | 3.68 | 5.98 – 8.14 |
| 2036 | 8.22 | 13.01 | 3.44 | 6.17 – 10.27 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/LUX · API docs
