Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Luxembourg: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 36/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 23 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.69 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.28, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.26) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-09-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-09-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-14% skill vs naive; realized ±0.4093 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Luxembourg: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed4.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.5 | 7.84 | 1.17 | 3.75 – 5.26 |
| 2028 | 3.91 | 9.7 | -1.87 | 2.55 – 5.28 |
| 2030 | 3.32 | 10.79 | -4.14 | 1.53 – 5.11 |
| 2035 | 1.85 | 12.41 | -8.71 | -0.6 – 4.3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed190.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 128.81 | 144.11 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 113.3 | 136.75 – 150 |
| 2030 | 150 | 150 | 102.62 | 130.19 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 82.99 | 114.95 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed101.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 105.8bn | 117.7bn | 95.4bn | 102.5bn – 109bn |
| 2028 | 117.1bn | 137.8bn | 99.2bn | 108.5bn – 125.8bn |
| 2030 | 128.5bn | 155.1bn | 105.4bn | 113.9bn – 143.1bn |
| 2035 | 156.9bn | 194.6bn | 124.2bn | 124.4bn – 189.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.69 | 11.03 | -8.27 | -1.05 – 2.43 |
| 2028 | 0.75 | 12 | -10 | -2.28 – 3.78 |
| 2030 | 0.8 | 12 | -10 | -3.13 – 4.74 |
| 2035 | 0.94 | 12 | -10 | -4.66 – 6.55 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed147.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 152.3k | 171k | 136k | 147.6k – 157k |
| 2028 | 164.7k | 197.2k | 136.6k | 152.6k – 176.9k |
| 2030 | 177.2k | 219.2k | 140.8k | 157.1k – 197.3k |
| 2035 | 208.4k | 250k | 157k | 165.2k – 250k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.02 | 4.99 | 0.92 | 2.49 – 3.56 |
| 2029 | 2.23 | 5.64 | 0 | 1.28 – 3.17 |
| 2031 | 1.83 | 6.24 | 0 | 0.6 – 3.06 |
| 2036 | 1.52 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 – 3.3 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.23 | 29.18 | 24.97 | 26.38 – 28.07 |
| 2028 | 28.68 | 32.07 | 24.78 | 26.56 – 30.81 |
| 2030 | 30.14 | 34.51 | 25.1 | 26.72 – 33.56 |
| 2035 | 33.78 | 39.96 | 26.65 | 26.77 – 40.79 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed159.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 126.57 | 144.01 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 109.42 | 136.59 – 150 |
| 2030 | 150 | 150 | 97.61 | 129.98 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 75.92 | 114.66 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.53 | 7.21 | -2.49 | 1.45 – 3.61 |
| 2028 | 2.82 | 10.93 | -5 | 0.88 – 4.75 |
| 2030 | 3.1 | 13.58 | -5 | 0.53 – 5.67 |
| 2035 | 3.83 | 18.64 | -5 | -0.07 – 7.72 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.32 | 9.35 | -1.07 | 3.14 – 5.5 |
| 2029 | 3.48 | 12.19 | -5 | 1.38 – 5.57 |
| 2031 | 3.17 | 14.42 | -5 | 0.42 – 5.92 |
| 2036 | 3.01 | 18.92 | -5 | -0.99 – 7.02 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.63 | 16.94 | 12.64 | 14.07 – 15.2 |
| 2028 | 13.74 | 17.72 | 10.28 | 12.51 – 14.97 |
| 2030 | 12.84 | 17.99 | 8.38 | 11.08 – 14.6 |
| 2035 | 10.6 | 17.88 | 4.29 | 7.86 – 13.33 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed687k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 683.7k | 716k | 653.7k | 662.5k – 704.9k |
| 2028 | 694.7k | 727.5k | 664.2k | 643.3k – 746.1k |
| 2030 | 705.6k | 739k | 674.7k | 625.5k – 785.8k |
| 2035 | 733k | 767.7k | 700.9k | 581k – 885.1k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.01 | 5.51 | -4.12 | -0.7 – 0.71 |
| 2028 | 1.07 | 10.6 | -6.07 | -0.17 – 2.32 |
| 2030 | 2.14 | 14.44 | -7.08 | 0.43 – 3.85 |
| 2035 | 4.81 | 15 | -8.23 | 1.87 – 7.75 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.8bn | 4.1bn | 1.6bn | 2.6bn – 3.1bn |
| 2028 | 3bn | 5.2bn | 877.5m | 2.6bn – 3.5bn |
| 2030 | 3.3bn | 6.1bn | 476.5m | 2.6bn – 4bn |
| 2035 | 3.8bn | 7.8bn | 0 | 2.6bn – 5.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.06 | 0.25 | 0 | 0.01 – 0.11 |
| 2028 | 0.05 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 – 0.11 |
| 2030 | 0.05 | 0.24 | 0 | 0 – 0.14 |
| 2035 | 0.05 | 0.24 | 0 | 0 – 0.22 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2bn | 4.4bn | 1.9bn | 2.9bn – 3.4bn |
| 2028 | 3.5bn | 5.6bn | 1.4bn | 3bn – 4bn |
| 2030 | 3.8bn | 6.5bn | 1.1bn | 3.1bn – 4.5bn |
| 2035 | 4.6bn | 8.5bn | 720.7m | 3.3bn – 5.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.37 | 8.17 | 4.58 | 5.99 – 6.75 |
| 2028 | 6.43 | 9.54 | 3.32 | 5.64 – 7.21 |
| 2030 | 6.48 | 10.5 | 2.47 | 5.35 – 7.61 |
| 2035 | 6.62 | 12.3 | 0.94 | 4.69 – 8.55 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/LUX · API docs
