Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Latvia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 41/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.64 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.18, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.22) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+14% skill vs naive; realized ±6.3079 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Latvia: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.15 | 2.17 | -10.47 | -5.51 – -2.79 |
| 2029 | -5.25 | 5.69 | -16.2 | -7.74 – -2.77 |
| 2031 | -6.36 | 7.78 | -20.49 | -9.75 – -2.96 |
| 2036 | -9.11 | 10.87 | -29.1 | -14.65 – -3.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.85 | 75.94 | 51.5 | 59.97 – 65.73 |
| 2028 | 63.4 | 86.08 | 43.75 | 57.12 – 69.69 |
| 2030 | 63.96 | 93.23 | 38.58 | 54.66 – 73.26 |
| 2035 | 65.34 | 106.74 | 29.46 | 48.97 – 81.71 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 56.3bn | 61bn | 52.3bn | 54.6bn – 58.1bn |
| 2029 | 63.1bn | 71.1bn | 56.2bn | 58.5bn – 67.8bn |
| 2031 | 69.9bn | 80.3bn | 61bn | 62bn – 77.9bn |
| 2036 | 86.9bn | 101.5bn | 74.2bn | 68.9bn – 104.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.64 | 8.16 | -2.14 | 1.68 – 3.61 |
| 2029 | 3.55 | 12 | -4.73 | 1.79 – 5.31 |
| 2031 | 4.46 | 12 | -6.24 | 2.04 – 6.87 |
| 2036 | 6.72 | 12 | -8.4 | 2.74 – 10.71 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 30.4k | 32.8k | 28.3k | 29.5k – 31.4k |
| 2029 | 34.3k | 38.4k | 30.6k | 31.7k – 36.8k |
| 2031 | 38.1k | 43.5k | 33.4k | 33.8k – 42.4k |
| 2036 | 47.7k | 55.4k | 41.1k | 37.8k – 57.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.17 | 5.44 | 0.73 | 2.55 – 3.78 |
| 2029 | 2.53 | 6.47 | 0 | 1.44 – 3.62 |
| 2031 | 2.22 | 7.31 | 0 | 0.79 – 3.65 |
| 2036 | 1.97 | 9.17 | 0 | 0 – 4.06 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 48.4 | 52.5 | 43.67 | 46.9 – 49.9 |
| 2029 | 50.41 | 57.5 | 42.22 | 46.68 – 54.13 |
| 2031 | 52.41 | 61.57 | 41.84 | 46.46 – 58.36 |
| 2036 | 57.42 | 70.37 | 42.47 | 45.51 – 69.33 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed67.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 68.05 | 83.01 | 53.1 | 64.67 – 71.43 |
| 2028 | 69.85 | 95.76 | 43.95 | 62.54 – 77.17 |
| 2030 | 71.66 | 105.1 | 38.21 | 60.8 – 82.51 |
| 2035 | 76.16 | 123.45 | 28.87 | 56.73 – 95.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.72 | 19.28 | -5 | -0.99 – 6.43 |
| 2029 | 1.68 | 30.35 | -5 | -4.76 – 8.11 |
| 2031 | 0.63 | 37.65 | -5 | -5 – 8.92 |
| 2036 | -1.98 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 9.94 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.5(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.3 | 20.48 | -5 | -0.56 – 7.16 |
| 2029 | 4.07 | 33.83 | -5 | -2.73 – 10.86 |
| 2031 | 4.34 | 42.77 | -5 | -4.52 – 13.21 |
| 2036 | 4.49 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 17.25 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.4 | 25.25 | 21.8 | 22.68 – 24.13 |
| 2028 | 23.32 | 26.52 | 20.54 | 21.59 – 25.04 |
| 2030 | 23.23 | 27.36 | 19.65 | 20.6 – 25.87 |
| 2035 | 23.02 | 28.87 | 17.96 | 18.25 – 27.8 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.9m | 2m | 1.8m | 1.8m – 1.9m |
| 2029 | 1.9m | 2m | 1.8m | 1.7m – 2m |
| 2031 | 1.9m | 2m | 1.8m | 1.7m – 2.1m |
| 2036 | 1.9m | 2m | 1.8m | 1.5m – 2.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.66 | 15 | -7.19 | 1.8 – 5.53 |
| 2028 | 5.09 | 15 | -10 | 1.71 – 8.46 |
| 2030 | 6.51 | 15 | -10 | 1.94 – 11.07 |
| 2035 | 10.07 | 15 | -10 | 2.74 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4bn | 6.4bn | 4.3bn | 5.1bn – 5.6bn |
| 2028 | 5.8bn | 7.7bn | 4bn | 5.3bn – 6.4bn |
| 2030 | 6.3bn | 8.7bn | 4bn | 5.4bn – 7.2bn |
| 2035 | 7.5bn | 10.8bn | 4.2bn | 5.8bn – 9.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.07 | 2.88 | 1.26 | 1.91 – 2.23 |
| 2028 | 2.13 | 3.53 | 0.72 | 1.81 – 2.45 |
| 2030 | 2.16 | 3.97 | 0.35 | 1.71 – 2.61 |
| 2035 | 2.18 | 4.75 | 0 | 1.44 – 2.92 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4bn | 7.6bn | 5.2bn | 6.1bn – 6.7bn |
| 2028 | 7.1bn | 9.2bn | 5.1bn | 6.5bn – 7.8bn |
| 2030 | 7.9bn | 10.5bn | 5.2bn | 6.8bn – 8.9bn |
| 2035 | 9.7bn | 13.5bn | 6bn | 7.6bn – 11.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.58 | 7.36 | 5.79 | 6.35 – 6.8 |
| 2029 | 6.33 | 7.68 | 4.97 | 5.81 – 6.84 |
| 2031 | 6.08 | 7.82 | 4.33 | 5.32 – 6.83 |
| 2036 | 5.45 | 7.92 | 2.98 | 4.2 – 6.7 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/LVA · API docs
