Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Latvia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 43/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 23 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.08 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.14, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.12) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+14% skill vs naive; realized ±0.8789 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Latvia: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.99 | 2.35 | -10.32 | -5.34 – -2.63 |
| 2028 | -5.16 | 5.81 | -16.14 | -7.65 – -2.67 |
| 2030 | -6.33 | 7.83 | -20.5 | -9.73 – -2.94 |
| 2035 | -9.27 | 10.77 | -29.31 | -14.84 – -3.7 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.85 | 75.94 | 51.5 | 59.97 – 65.73 |
| 2028 | 63.4 | 86.08 | 43.75 | 57.12 – 69.69 |
| 2030 | 63.96 | 93.23 | 38.58 | 54.66 – 73.26 |
| 2035 | 65.34 | 106.74 | 29.46 | 48.97 – 81.71 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.9bn | 55.6bn | 46.9bn | 49.3bn – 52.5bn |
| 2028 | 56.7bn | 64.8bn | 49.6bn | 52.5bn – 60.9bn |
| 2030 | 62.5bn | 73bn | 53.4bn | 55.4bn – 69.6bn |
| 2035 | 76.9bn | 91.8bn | 64bn | 61bn – 92.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.08 | 12 | -6.59 | 1.17 – 4.99 |
| 2028 | 5.08 | 12 | -10 | 1.62 – 8.54 |
| 2030 | 7.08 | 12 | -10 | 2.36 – 11.81 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.2 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.6k | 30.1k | 25.4k | 26.8k – 28.5k |
| 2028 | 30.9k | 35.3k | 27.2k | 28.7k – 33.2k |
| 2030 | 34.3k | 39.9k | 29.4k | 30.4k – 38.2k |
| 2035 | 42.6k | 50.5k | 35.7k | 33.7k – 51.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.82(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.25 | 5.52 | 0.82 | 2.64 – 3.86 |
| 2029 | 2.58 | 6.51 | 0 | 1.49 – 3.67 |
| 2031 | 2.25 | 7.32 | 0 | 0.82 – 3.68 |
| 2036 | 1.99 | 9.16 | 0 | 0 – 4.07 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.75 | 52.03 | 42.8 | 46.27 – 49.23 |
| 2028 | 49.45 | 56.87 | 40.88 | 45.79 – 53.1 |
| 2030 | 51.14 | 60.73 | 40.08 | 45.34 – 56.95 |
| 2035 | 55.38 | 68.94 | 39.75 | 43.9 – 66.87 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed67.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 68.05 | 83.01 | 53.1 | 64.67 – 71.43 |
| 2028 | 69.85 | 95.76 | 43.95 | 62.54 – 77.17 |
| 2030 | 71.66 | 105.1 | 38.21 | 60.8 – 82.51 |
| 2035 | 76.16 | 123.45 | 28.87 | 56.73 – 95.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.53 | 22.25 | -5 | 1.74 – 9.33 |
| 2028 | 9.01 | 37.95 | -5 | 2.16 – 15.85 |
| 2030 | 12.48 | 49.85 | -5 | 3.19 – 21.76 |
| 2035 | 21.16 | 50 | -5 | 6.06 – 36.26 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.62 | 20.8 | -5 | -0.25 – 7.49 |
| 2029 | 4.22 | 33.96 | -5 | -2.58 – 11.01 |
| 2031 | 4.43 | 42.83 | -5 | -4.44 – 13.3 |
| 2036 | 4.54 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 17.31 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.4 | 25.25 | 21.8 | 22.68 – 24.13 |
| 2028 | 23.32 | 26.52 | 20.54 | 21.59 – 25.04 |
| 2030 | 23.23 | 27.36 | 19.65 | 20.6 – 25.87 |
| 2035 | 23.02 | 28.87 | 17.96 | 18.25 – 27.8 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.8m | 1.9m | 1.8m | 1.8m – 1.9m |
| 2028 | 1.8m | 1.9m | 1.7m | 1.7m – 2m |
| 2030 | 1.8m | 1.9m | 1.7m | 1.6m – 2m |
| 2035 | 1.8m | 1.8m | 1.7m | 1.4m – 2.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.66 | 15 | -7.19 | 1.8 – 5.53 |
| 2028 | 5.09 | 15 | -10 | 1.71 – 8.46 |
| 2030 | 6.51 | 15 | -10 | 1.94 – 11.07 |
| 2035 | 10.07 | 15 | -10 | 2.74 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4bn | 6.4bn | 4.3bn | 5.1bn – 5.6bn |
| 2028 | 5.8bn | 7.7bn | 4bn | 5.3bn – 6.4bn |
| 2030 | 6.3bn | 8.7bn | 4bn | 5.4bn – 7.2bn |
| 2035 | 7.5bn | 10.8bn | 4.2bn | 5.8bn – 9.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.07 | 2.88 | 1.26 | 1.91 – 2.23 |
| 2028 | 2.13 | 3.53 | 0.72 | 1.81 – 2.45 |
| 2030 | 2.16 | 3.97 | 0.35 | 1.71 – 2.61 |
| 2035 | 2.18 | 4.75 | 0 | 1.44 – 2.92 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4bn | 7.6bn | 5.2bn | 6.1bn – 6.7bn |
| 2028 | 7.1bn | 9.2bn | 5.1bn | 6.5bn – 7.8bn |
| 2030 | 7.9bn | 10.5bn | 5.2bn | 6.8bn – 8.9bn |
| 2035 | 9.7bn | 13.5bn | 6bn | 7.6bn – 11.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.29 | 7.06 | 5.51 | 6.07 – 6.51 |
| 2028 | 5.72 | 7.07 | 4.38 | 5.24 – 6.21 |
| 2030 | 5.16 | 6.9 | 3.43 | 4.48 – 5.84 |
| 2035 | 3.76 | 6.21 | 1.3 | 2.78 – 4.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/LVA · API docs
