Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Macao: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 13/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -10 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.74, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.30) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+25% skill vs naive; realized ±13 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Macao: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed35(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30 | 30 | 9.28 | 25.29 – 30 |
| 2028 | 30 | 30 | -5.9 | 21.23 – 30 |
| 2030 | 30 | 30 | -16.34 | 18.14 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -30 | 11.83 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed92.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 94.65 | 124.88 | 68.46 | 88.82 – 100.49 |
| 2028 | 99.39 | 150 | 54.02 | 87.14 – 111.64 |
| 2030 | 104.13 | 150 | 45.55 | 86.14 – 122.11 |
| 2035 | 115.97 | 150 | 33.13 | 83.76 – 148.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed52.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.6bn | 86.3bn | 30.9bn | 52.2bn – 61.1bn |
| 2028 | 66.9bn | 118.2bn | 22.4bn | 57.6bn – 76.2bn |
| 2030 | 77.2bn | 143.5bn | 19.8bn | 63.1bn – 91.3bn |
| 2035 | 102.9bn | 196.7bn | 21.7bn | 75.3bn – 130.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2028 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2030 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2035 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed75.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 82k | 126.3k | 43.7k | 75.4k – 88.6k |
| 2028 | 96k | 172.7k | 29.5k | 82.3k – 109.7k |
| 2030 | 109.9k | 208.9k | 24.1k | 89.4k – 130.5k |
| 2035 | 144.8k | 250k | 23.5k | 105k – 184.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 – 0.05 |
| 2028 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 – 0.05 |
| 2030 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 – 0.08 |
| 2035 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 – 0.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 48.76 | 83.75 | 13.76 | 42.62 – 54.89 |
| 2028 | 52.56 | 113.17 | 0 | 40.76 – 64.36 |
| 2030 | 56.36 | 134.61 | 0 | 39.87 – 72.85 |
| 2035 | 65.87 | 150 | 0 | 38.39 – 93.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.19 | 1.5 | -1.22 | -0.12 – 0.5 |
| 2028 | -0.29 | 1.98 | -2.72 | -0.84 – 0.27 |
| 2030 | -0.76 | 2.17 | -3.9 | -1.49 – -0.03 |
| 2035 | -1.95 | 2.2 | -5 | -3.18 – -0.72 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.18 | 22.67 | 0 | 8.23 – 12.13 |
| 2028 | 5.87 | 27.51 | 0 | 2.49 – 9.24 |
| 2030 | 1.55 | 29.49 | 0 | 0 – 5.67 |
| 2035 | 0 | 39.51 | 0 | 0 – 5.8 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed685.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 684.1k | 716.4k | 654.1k | 662.9k – 705.3k |
| 2028 | 682.9k | 715.1k | 652.9k | 632.4k – 733.4k |
| 2030 | 681.7k | 713.9k | 651.8k | 604.3k – 759.1k |
| 2035 | 678.6k | 721.4k | 638.9k | 537.9k – 819.4k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.3 | 15 | -10 | -8.55 – 15 |
| 2028 | 14.33 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
| 2030 | 15 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.8bn | 33.8bn | 29.9bn | 30.9bn – 32.8bn |
| 2028 | 34.8bn | 38.3bn | 31.4bn | 32.2bn – 37.4bn |
| 2030 | 37.8bn | 42.2bn | 33.3bn | 33.5bn – 42.1bn |
| 2035 | 45.2bn | 51.5bn | 38.9bn | 35.9bn – 54.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.27 | 16.99 | 1.56 | 7.94 – 10.6 |
| 2027 | 9.6 | 22.96 | 0 | 7.09 – 12.1 |
| 2029 | 9.76 | 27.01 | 0 | 6.33 – 13.18 |
| 2034 | 9.88 | 34.28 | 0 | 4.57 – 15.2 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.8bn | 33.8bn | 29.9bn | 30.9bn – 32.8bn |
| 2028 | 34.8bn | 38.3bn | 31.4bn | 32.2bn – 37.4bn |
| 2030 | 37.8bn | 42.2bn | 33.3bn | 33.5bn – 42.1bn |
| 2035 | 45.2bn | 51.5bn | 38.9bn | 35.9bn – 54.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.32 | 2.72 | 1.91 | 2.22 – 2.41 |
| 2028 | 2.25 | 2.96 | 1.55 | 2.04 – 2.47 |
| 2030 | 2.19 | 3.1 | 1.28 | 1.88 – 2.51 |
| 2035 | 2.04 | 3.32 | 0.75 | 1.51 – 2.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MAC · API docs
