Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Macao: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 20/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.2 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.60, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.52) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+25% skill vs naive; realized ±26.3895 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Macao: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed35(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 30 | 30 | 9.26 | 25.29 – 30 |
| 2029 | 30 | 30 | -5.92 | 21.23 – 30 |
| 2031 | 30 | 30 | -16.37 | 18.14 – 30 |
| 2036 | 30 | 30 | -30 | 11.82 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed92.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 94.65 | 124.88 | 68.46 | 88.82 – 100.49 |
| 2028 | 99.39 | 150 | 54.02 | 87.14 – 111.64 |
| 2030 | 104.13 | 150 | 45.55 | 86.14 – 122.11 |
| 2035 | 115.97 | 150 | 33.13 | 83.76 – 148.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed52.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 56.2bn | 85.9bn | 30.4bn | 51.8bn – 60.6bn |
| 2029 | 61.6bn | 113bn | 17bn | 52.5bn – 70.6bn |
| 2031 | 66.9bn | 133.3bn | 9.4bn | 53.7bn – 80.2bn |
| 2036 | 80.3bn | 174.3bn | 0 | 56.3bn – 104.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.2 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2029 | -3.84 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2031 | -8.89 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2036 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed75.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 78.7k | 123k | 40.3k | 72.1k – 85.2k |
| 2029 | 85k | 161.7k | 18.6k | 71.8k – 98.2k |
| 2031 | 91.4k | 190.4k | 5.6k | 72.3k – 110.5k |
| 2036 | 107.3k | 247.3k | 0 | 73.4k – 141.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 – 0.05 |
| 2029 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 – 0.05 |
| 2031 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 – 0.08 |
| 2036 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 – 0.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 48.76 | 83.75 | 13.76 | 42.62 – 54.89 |
| 2028 | 52.56 | 113.17 | 0 | 40.76 – 64.36 |
| 2030 | 56.36 | 134.61 | 0 | 39.87 – 72.85 |
| 2035 | 65.87 | 150 | 0 | 38.39 – 93.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.41 | 4 | 0.72 | 2.02 – 2.8 |
| 2029 | 4.47 | 7.21 | 1.53 | 3.65 – 5.29 |
| 2031 | 6.52 | 10.06 | 2.73 | 5.21 – 7.83 |
| 2036 | 11.65 | 16.66 | 6.29 | 8.68 – 14.63 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.18 | 22.67 | 0 | 8.23 – 12.13 |
| 2028 | 5.87 | 27.51 | 0 | 2.49 – 9.24 |
| 2030 | 1.55 | 29.49 | 0 | 0 – 5.67 |
| 2035 | 0 | 39.51 | 0 | 0 – 5.8 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed685.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 710.8k | 744.3k | 679.6k | 688.7k – 732.8k |
| 2029 | 736.2k | 771k | 703.9k | 681.7k – 790.6k |
| 2031 | 761.6k | 798.7k | 727.1k | 675.1k – 848.1k |
| 2036 | 825.1k | 877.6k | 776.4k | 654k – 996.3k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.3 | 15 | -10 | -8.55 – 15 |
| 2028 | 14.33 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
| 2030 | 15 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.8bn | 33.8bn | 29.9bn | 30.9bn – 32.8bn |
| 2028 | 34.8bn | 38.3bn | 31.4bn | 32.2bn – 37.4bn |
| 2030 | 37.8bn | 42.2bn | 33.3bn | 33.5bn – 42.1bn |
| 2035 | 45.2bn | 51.5bn | 38.9bn | 35.9bn – 54.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.27 | 16.99 | 1.56 | 7.94 – 10.6 |
| 2027 | 9.6 | 22.96 | 0 | 7.09 – 12.1 |
| 2029 | 9.76 | 27.01 | 0 | 6.33 – 13.18 |
| 2034 | 9.88 | 34.28 | 0 | 4.57 – 15.2 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.8bn | 33.8bn | 29.9bn | 30.9bn – 32.8bn |
| 2028 | 34.8bn | 38.3bn | 31.4bn | 32.2bn – 37.4bn |
| 2030 | 37.8bn | 42.2bn | 33.3bn | 33.5bn – 42.1bn |
| 2035 | 45.2bn | 51.5bn | 38.9bn | 35.9bn – 54.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.62 | 2.23 | 1.01 | 1.5 – 1.74 |
| 2029 | 1.46 | 2.51 | 0.4 | 1.22 – 1.69 |
| 2031 | 1.29 | 2.66 | 0 | 0.98 – 1.61 |
| 2036 | 0.89 | 2.81 | 0 | 0.43 – 1.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/MAC · API docs
